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TEMPEST: Testing and Evaluating Model Predictions of European Storms. TEMPEST: Testing and Evaluating Model Predictions of European Storms ‘What’s past is prologue; what to come, in yours and my discharge.’ Act 2, Scene 1, The Tempest. Aims of the meeting.
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TEMPEST: Testing and Evaluating Model Predictions of European Storms
TEMPEST: Testing and Evaluating Model Predictions of European Storms
‘What’s past is prologue; what to come, in yours and my discharge.’Act 2, Scene 1, The Tempest
2. A non-exhaustive overview of related UK research
NCAS, Reading Met Dept, Reading
Len Shaffrey Brian Hoskins
Dave Brayshaw Helen Dacre
Mike Blackburn Tim Woollings
NCEO, Reading Exeter University
Kevin Hodges Renato Vitolo
David Stephenson
Oxford University
Tim Palmer Met Office (Partner)
Ruth McDonald
ECMWF (Partner) Simon Brown
tbc
Reading – Giuseppe Zappa, Ben Harvey, Matt Hawcroft
Oxford – Andrew Dawson
Exeter – Phil Sansom
Q1. How will climate change affect the generation and evolution of extra-tropical cyclones? How large are these effects compared to natural variability?
WP1 Provide the first systematic assessment of the predictions of intense extratropical cyclones in the CMIP5 models using established and innovative analysis methodologies.
Q2. Which physical processes are most important, and which predicted changes are most robust?
WP2 Perform an integrated set of sensitivity experiments that will quantify the impact of key processes in driving changes in the North Atlantic and European storm track.
Q3. How important are the features and processes that climate models poorly represent due to their limited resolution?
WP3 Investigate the impact of climate change on intense extratropical cyclones, and their upscale effects, in very high-resolution global atmospheric model experiments capable of capturing mesoscale structures.
WP4 Develop an integrated research community to tackle the questions surrounding the impact of climate change on extratropical cyclones and engage the wider scientific community and external stakeholders.
Q1. How will climate change affect the generation and evolution of extra-tropical cyclones? How large are these effects compared to natural variability?
WP1Provide the first systematic assessment of the predictions of intense extratropical cyclones in the CMIP5 models using established and innovative analysis methodologies.
Q2. Which physical processes are most important, and which predicted changes are most robust?
WP2 Perform an integrated set of sensitivity experiments that will quantify the impact of key processes in driving changes in the North Atlantic and European storm track.
Q3. How important are the features and processes that climate models poorly represent due to their limited resolution?
WP3 Investigate the impact of climate change on intense extratropical cyclones, and their upscale effects, in very high-resolution global atmospheric model experiments capable of capturing mesoscale structures.
WP4 Develop an integrated research community to tackle the questions surrounding the impact of climate change on extratropical cyclones and engage the wider scientific community and external stakeholders.
WP4 Integration and pull-through Lead Shaffrey
WP1 Assessing Storms
Lead Hodges
PDRA at Reading
WP2 Quantifying Processes Lead Shaffrey
PDRA at Reading
WP3 Impact of Resolution
Lead Palmer
PDRA at Oxford
Student Statistical Modelling of Trends Exeter
Student Latent Heat Release in Storms Reading
TEMPEST Project Structure
WP4 Integration and pull-through Lead Shaffrey
WP1 Assessing Storms
Lead Hodges
Giuseppe Zappa
WP2 Quantifying Processes Lead Shaffrey
Ben Harvey
WP3 Impact of Resolution
Lead Palmer
Andrew Dawson
Student Statistical Modelling of Trends Exeter Phil Sansom
Student Latent Heat Release in Storms Reading Matt Hawcroft
TEMPEST Project Status
Storm Risk Mitigation Programme
In addition to TEMPEST, an Impacts and a NWP project were also funded by the NERC Storm Risk Mitigation programme
NWP - DIAMET (PI: Geraint Vaughan, Manchester)
Manchester, Leeds, Reading, East Anglia, Met Office
The generation of mesoscalePV anomalies
Physical processes and improving model parameterisations
Predictability
Impacts - DEMON (PI: Paul Bates, Bristol)
Bristol, Reading, Kings College
1. Downscaling and uncertainty propagation 2. Data assimilation and remote sensing
3. Extreme storm surge and fluvial modelling 4. Hydraulic modelling
Storm Risk Mitigation Science Management Team (CEH and BGS)
Annual meetings, programme communication and management, data management etc...
TEMPEST Summary and Key Outcomes
Points for discussion:
WP1 Implementation of feature tracking across CMIP5
WP2 Priorities: 1. SST 2. Arctic sea ice?
WP3 Practicalities (where will data be stored and/or analysed?)
Briefly outline:
SRM programme management and governance
SRM programme communication and integration
Collaboration outside of Storm Risk (e.g. CWC, AXA projects…)
Points for discussion:
Internal communication – mailing list and project website, is this enough?
Collaboration a) within SRM and b) outside of SRM
Interaction with stakeholders (DECC, DEFRA, EA, Met Office, ECMWF, Insurance industry, General public)
Next meeting
Programme Executive Board (PEB)
The Storm Risk Mitigation Programme will be managed by NERC Swindon Office in conjunction with the Changing Water Cycle Programme.
Programme Advisory Group (PAG)
A Programme Advisory Group (PAG) will advise the PEB on the delivery of the Storm Risk Mitigation Programme. (Dennis Peach, Dave Burridge, Sean Longfield, Ian Townend)
Science Management Team (SMT)
The SMT will be responsible for the day-to-day management and coordination of the SRM and CWC programmes. (Graham Leeks, Daren Gooddy, Lucy Bell, Ann Stokes)
Programme Website
www.stormrm.info
Annual SRM programme meetings
First meeting - October 2011
Later meetings jointly with CWC?
Researcher only meetings
SRM mailing lists are also being set up
Small amount of funding available to integrate SRM activities
Case Studies and PV Tracers in a climate model?
Proposed work to link:
Vertical section
40km
12km
Courtesy of Jeffrey Chagnon
Nonconservative PV (Total – Adv only)
LW
LW + Conv
Micro
LW
Conv
Micro
BlyrHtg
Micro + Conv
Conv
Micro + Conv
+ BlyrHtg
Courtesy of Jeffrey Chagnon
Vertical section
40km
12km
Courtesy of Jeffrey Chagnon
1. Compare PV tracer diagnostics in simulations of cyclone case studies using NWP to climate resolutions
2. Develop extratropical cyclone composites of PV tracer structure from the HiGEM climate model
Briefly outline:
SRM programme management and governance
SRM programme communication and integration
Collaboration outside of Storm Risk (e.g. CWC, AXA projects…)
Points for discussion:
Internal communication – mailing list and project website, is this enough?
Collaboration a) within SRM and b) outside of SRM
Interaction with stakeholders (DECC, DEFRA, EA, Met Office, ECMWF, Insurance industry, General public)
Next meeting
Project Website
tempest.nerc.ac.uk
Six monthly project meetings
Alternating locations (Reading, Exeter, Oxford)
Researcher visits to other institutions
TEMPEST mailing list (met-tempest@lists.reading.ac.uk)
Briefly outline:
SRM programme management and governance
SRM programme communication and integration
Collaboration outside of Storm Risk (e.g. CWC, AXA projects…)
Points for discussion:
Internal communication – mailing list and project website, is this enough?
Collaboration a) within SRM and b) outside of SRM
Interaction with stakeholders (DECC, DEFRA, EA, Met Office, ECMWF, Insurance industry, General public)
Next meeting
WP1 Assessing Changes in Storms
Q1. How will climate change affect the generation and evolution of extra-tropical cyclones? How large are these effects compared to natural variability?
Red: changes in intense events
Blue: changes in total events
Changes in extratropical extremes of daily MSLP in the SRESA1B CMIP3 scenarios (Lambert and Fyfe, 2006)
Previous analyses have only been performed on a subset of climate models, using different methodologies and sometimes using only daily output.
WP1 Assessing Changes in Storms
ERA-40 – DJF Track density
Winter 1979-1980 tracks from a regional climate model
ERA-40
Q2. Which physical processes are most important, and which predicted changes are most robust?
The spread in CMIP3 projections for North Atlantic and European climate is large
Ensemble mean surface temperature differences for 2080-2099 minus 1980-1999 in the AR4 models
WP2 Quantifying the key processes driving changes in intense extratropical cyclones
Opportunity: Perform an integrated series of sensitivity experiments with the Unified Model to develop a deeper understanding of how these processes give rise to the large spread in the CMIP3 climate model projections
Zonal mean sensitivity experiments: Upper tropospheric and lower tropospheric temperature contrast
North Atlantic and European sensitivity experiments: Arctic ice extent, Atlantic SST, Land-sea contrast, Stationary waves from changes in tropical precipitation
Propogation
HiGEM – DJF 925hPa wind and mslp composites
ERA-40 – DJF 925hPa wind and mslp composites
ERA-40
WP4 Integration and Pull-through
WP4 Integration and Pull-through
TEMPEST Summary and Key Outcomes
U850; AR4 models 2080-99 (A2) – 1980-99 (20th Century runs); Lorenz and DeWeaver, 2007
Differences in the North Atlantic
Laine et al 2009
There are some very different responses in the North Atlantic
These could be due to different local SST changes
