Reducing the Gap in Achievement & Graduation: Start With Monitoring Chronic Absence

1. Reducing the Gap in Achievement & Graduation: Start With Monitoring Chronic Absence (September 28, 2012)

2. What does this statement mean to you? Talent is Abundant But Opportunity is Scarce

3. An Antidote to Drop-Out The 3 A School Success Framework • Developed by Annie E. Casey Foundation & America’s Promise Alliance For more info go to www.americaspromise.org/parentengagement

4. Unpacking Attendance Terms

5. When 90% Doesn’t Earn an “A” Students Who Miss More Than 10% Of School Are At Grave Academic Risk Chronic Absence (=>10% absence) 0-90% Warning Signs (<10% but >5% absence) 91-94% Satisfactory Attendance (=<5% absence) 95 %+ Emergency: =>20% absence

6. Nationwide, as many as 7.5 million students miss nearly a month of school every year. • In some cities, as many as one in four students are missing that much school. • Chronic absenteeism is a red alert that students are headed for academic trouble and eventually for dropping out of high school.  • Poor attendance isn’t just a problem in high school. It can start as early as kindergarten. Chronic Absence is a Hidden National Crisis

7. Students Chronically Absent in Kindergarten & 1st Grade Much Less Likely to Read Proficiently in 3rd Grade Source: Applied Survey Research & Attendance Works (April 2011)

8. In Baltimore, chronic absence in both preK and K predicted significantly worse outcomes including • Greater likelihood of continued poor attendance. 50% chronically absent again in G1, 45% in G2. • Lower outcomes in G1, G2 in reading and math, and math in G3. • More often retained (26% compared with 9% of students with no chronic absence). • More likely to be identified as needing special education. • Worst outcomes for children who did not attend preK. By contrast, children who participated in Head Start had better attendance and higher 3rd grade test scores.

9. The Long-term impact of Chronic Kindergarten Absence Is Most Troubling for Poor Children K Chronic Absence Associated with Lower 5thGrade Math and Reading Performance Even When Attendance Improved in 3rd Grade Source: ECLS-K data analyzed by National Center for Children in Poverty (NCCP) Note: Average academic performance reflects results of direct cognitive assessments conducted for ECLS-K.

10. Chronic Absence is Especially Challenging for Low-Income Children • Poor children are 4xmore likely to be chronically absent in K than their highest income peers. • Children in poverty are more likely to lack basic health and safety supports that ensure a child is more likely to get to school. They often face: • Unstable Housing • Limited Access to Health Care • Poor Transportation • Inadequate Food and Clothing • Lack of Safe Paths to School Due to Neighborhood Violence • Chaotic Schools with Poor Quality Programs, etc. * (Romero & Lee 2007)

11. Chronically Absent 6th Graders Have Lower Graduation Rates Dropout Rates by Sixth Grade Attendance(Baltimore City Public Schools, 1990-2000 Sixth Grade Cohort) Severely Chronically Absent Chronically Absent NotChronically Absent Source: Baltimore Education Research Consortium SY 2009-2010

12. 9th Grade Attendance Predicts Graduation for Students of All Economic Backgrounds Need to recolor chart Note: This Chicago study found attendance was a stronger graduation predictor than 8th grade test scores. Source: Allensworth & Easton, What Matters for Staying On-Track and Graduating in Chicago Public Schools, Consortium on Chicago School Research at U of C, July 2007

13. Moving into Action Requires Knowing If Chronic Absence is a Problem Most Schools Only Track Average Daily Attendance and Truancy. Both Can Mask Chronic Absence. 98% ADA = little chronic absence, 95%ADA = don’t know; 93% ADA = significant chronic absence

14. Sporadic — Not Just Consecutive – Absences Matter New York City Schools A 407 alert is issued when student misses 10 consecutive days or 20 days over a 40 day period. It misses more sporadic absence.1 out of 5 elementary school children were chronically absent. Source: Nauer K et al, Strengthening Schools by Strengthening Families, Center for New York City Affairs New School, Oct 2008

15. Chronic Absence Versus Truancy (San Francisco Unified School District) (Note: SFUSD identified chron/hab truants as = 10 unexcused absences)

16. Data is Needed for Identifying Programmatic Solutions • Chronic absence data (as well as other attendance measures) should be examined by classroom, grade, school, neighborhood or sub-population. • If chronic absence is unusually high for a particular group of students, explore what might be common issues (unreliable transportation, community violence, asthma and other chronic diseases, poor access to health care, unnecessary suspension for non-violent offenses, lack of engaging curriculum, child care or afterschool programming, foreclosures, etc.) • If chronic absence is unusually low for a high-risk population, find out what they are doing that works. 16

17. Elementary Absenteeism Concentrated in West Oakland

18. Schools + Communities CAN Make a Difference Characteristics of Successful Attendance Initiatives • Partner with community agencies to help families carry out their responsibility to get children to school. • Make attendance a priority, set targets and monitor progress over time. • Engage parents and students in identifying and addressing school, family, and community issues that contribute to chronic absence. • Clearly communicate expectations for attendance to students and families. • Begin early, ideally in Pre-K. • Combine targeted interventions with universal strategies that nurture an engaged learning environment, build a culture of attendance and ensure physical health and safety at school. • Offer positive supports before punitive action.

19. Recovery Programs Increased Attendance Involves a 3-Tiered Approach that Fits with Most Reform Efforts Students who were chronically absent in prior year or starting to miss 20% or more of school A small fraction of a school’s students Intervention Programs High Cost Some of a school’s students Students at risk for chronic absence Universal/Preventive Programs All students in the school All of a school’s students Low Cost

20. Solutions Only Work If Grounded in Understanding Of What Leads to Chronic Absence Special thanks to Dr. Robert Balfanz, Everyone Graduates Center, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD for providing this framework.

21. Proposed Universal Strategies For Influencing Discretion and Identifying Causes of Absence

22. Strategies for 3 Tiered Approach Universal strategies are part of tiered interventions • Case management and wrap-around services • Referral as last resort for court-based intervention Recovery Programs Recovery Programs • Early outreach, support, mentoring for students with poor attendance • Identify and remove barriers • Attendance contracts Intervention Programs Intervention Programs Intervention Programs • Safe and supportive school environment • Engaging classroom environments • Parent education about why attendance matters and how to help each other get students to school • On-going attention to attendance data • Recognition for good and improved attendance • Collaboration with afterschool and early childhood • School-based health support Universal/Preventive Programs Universal/Preventive Programs

23. Ingredients For Success & Sustainability in a District Conveys importance of building a habit of attendance & what is chronic absence Expands ability to interpret data and adopt best practices Strengthens Family/School Relationship Is accurate, regularly reported and easily obtained Ensures monitoring & incentives to reduce chronic absence

24. Putting in Place A Systemic & Sustainable Approach The Superintendents Call to Action Register at: www.attendanceworks.org/superintendents-call-to-action

25. Lessons Learned • Avoid the blame game. Find out how everyone can contribute to reducing absences. • Use data to identify priorities where you can make the greatest impact – for example -the transitions to K and 9th grade. • Provide positive supports first – it’s less costly and more effective. • Build ownership at the school site level. But, remember schools can’t do it alone! • Engage in systemic reform by bringing together key stakeholders at district/community level and staffing the coordinated effort. • Reducing chronic absence takes time and sustained attention. • Especially as students get older, combine attention to attendance with other early warning indicators.

26. Using Early Warning SystemsTo Raise Achievement, Decrease Dropouts, and Increase Post-Secondary Success Robert Balfanz Everyone Graduates Center Johns Hopkins University

27. Core Idea of Early Warning Systems (EWS) • To graduate college and career ready, students need to successfully navigate several key transitions and acquire a set of academic behaviors - in short they need to learn how to succeed at school • Students signal that they are on- or off-track towards these outcomes through their attendance, behavior, and course performance-the ABC’s

28. Substantial Numbers of Future Dropouts can be identified in as early as 6th grade The Primary Off-Track Indicators for Potential Dropouts: • Attendance - <85-90% school attendance • Behavior - “unsatisfactory” behavior mark in at least one class • Course Performance – A final grade of “F” in Math and/or English or Credit-Bearing HS Course Sixth-grade students with one or more of the indicators may have only a 15% to 25% chance of graduating from high school on time or within one year of expected graduation Note: Early Warning Indicator graph from Philadelphia research which has been replicated in 10 cities. Robert Balfanz and Liza Herzog, Johns Hopkins University; Philadelphia Education Fund

29. In High Poverty School Districts, 75% or More of Eventual Dropouts Can be Identified between the 6th and 9th Grade

30. Core Idea of EWS cont. • By tracking the ABC’s it is possible to identify when students are beginning to fall off-track, providing time to intervene and alter their trajectory through school and beyond • Using ABC Early Indicator data it is possible to design more targeted and effective interventions at the individual, classroom, school, and even district and state levels.

31. Findings from Chicago Consortium of School Research • Virtually all students with a B average or higher in the 9th grade graduate in 4 years • The vast majority of students with multiple failures in the 9th grade will not graduate • Students with D+/C averages are harder to predict and can go either way

32. If graduation is determined by coursegrades, what affects grades? • Students’ behaviors are the main drivers of course failure • Attendance is 8 times more predictive of failure than prior test scores • Demographic & economic background characteristics explain 7% of course failures • Eighth-grade test scores explain an additional 5% (12% total) • Student behaviors--absences and effort- explain an additional 61% (73% total) • Attendance is also the strongest predictor of course grades, although prior academic ability is also very important for high grades

33. Impact of Attendance on Achievement

34. Post-Secondary Success Indicators-Early Findings • Not having any off-track indicators for high school graduation leads to increased odds of post-secondary attainment • But to have high odds of post-secondary attainment students need to have a very strong 9th grade year-strong attendance, no behavior problems, B or better average-and be on-age • Low ABC’s predict high school dropout, high ABC’s predict post-secondary success • Means we can have unified high school graduation to post-secondary success indicator system

35. Impact of Attendance on High School Graduation and Post-Secondary Enrollment

36. The Cost of Inaction is High:School Disengagement in Middle Grades Precedes Involvement with the Juvenile Justice System and Teenage Pregnancy

37. How Can Early Warning Systems Be Used?

38. Early Warning Indicator and Intervention Systems (EWS) • Combine ready access, at the classroom level, to on- and off-track indicators (the ABC’s), with regular time to analyze the data and an organized response system that can act upon early warning data in both a systematic and tailored manner. • The most effective school-level intervention systems combined whole-school/classroom prevention, targeted problem solving and moderate intensity supports when prevention does not work, and case managed high intensity supports for the neediest students. • Investments in mission-building, professional development, coaching and networking are critical to success

39. Emerging Thresholds for Off-Track Indicators • Attendance-missing 10% or 20 or more days of school • Behavior-Two or more behavior infractions in a year (e.g. suspensions) or sustained mild misbehavior • Course Performance-Failing a math or English class in the middle grades, failing two or more credit bearing courses in high school • Specific cut points can and will vary around these normative thresholds depending on trade offs between efficiency (i.e. minimizing false positives) and yield (capturing large percent of students on path to dropping out), as well as, whether triggers are being set for monitoring and problem solving vs. substantial intervention

40. Early Warning Indicator Data Tool • Without additional support to provide interventions at the scale and intensity required to meet each student’s individual needs, teachers can easy feel overwhelmed.  • Research has shown that when teachers feel overwhelmed by the level of challenge in high needs schools, they will often lower expectations for students.

41. Keeping Students On-Track Pre-K to Post-Secondary-Consider Both Academic and Social Needs • Pre-K and Elementary Grades-Core academic competencies and socialized into the norms of schooling in a joyful manner • Middle Grades-Intermediate academic skills (reading comprehension and fluency, transition from arithmetic to mathematics) and a need for adventure and camaraderie • High School-Transition to adult behaviors and mind set and a path to college and career readiness, as well as the right extra help for students with below grade level skills

42. Focus on the ABC’s-Attendance • Understand that chronic absenteeism (missing a month or more of school) is much more widespread, particularly in high poverty communities, then is commonly recognized and that like bacteria in hospitals creates havoc • Organize comprehensive efforts built around knowledge that from the middle grades on student absenteeism driven by combination of student choice, school factors driving students away, and out of school factors pulling them away • Create programing that compels students to come to school-e.g. most engaged middle grades students often found in cognitively rich activities which combine teamwork with performance (Robotics, debate, drama, chess etc.) • Build an attendance problem solving capacity into schools and districts extend it via a network of relationships with wrap around service providers

43. Focus on ABC’s-Behavior and Effort • Model and teach resiliency and self-management/organization skills • Model and teach staying out of trouble skills • Build Success Scripts in student’s heads (effort leads to success), work to undermine Failure Scripts (life is capricious, withholding effort keeps you psychologically safe)

44. Focus on ABC’s- Course Performance • Provide course coaching-assistance, support, and on occasion even advocacy which enables students to succeed in their courses-including monitoring assignment completion, and preparation for tests and quizzes, and help with catching up when absent • Make sure tutoring efforts are linked tightly with needs and expectations of student’s courses (don’t work on fractions if Friday’s test is on probability) • For high school students, provide opportunity for rapid credit recovery

45. Need to Build and Provide Transitional Support from High School to College and Career All students need a clear pathway from college to post-secondary schooling and training Many students will need additional supports - both academic and social - to successfully make the transition Currently no one owns the space between students meeting HS graduation requirements and starting college and career training. Do not really have a way to fund this-falls between cracks of public school system and state university system

46. In Highest Needs Schools Combine Whole School Transformation with Enhanced Student and Teacher Supports

47. Designing Schools to Meet High Educational Challenges Providing the Right Support to the Right Student at the Right Time at the Scale and Intensity Required • Intensive One on One Supports: • Driven by needs assessment • Case managed • Professionally provided when whole school and moderate intensity supports are not sufficient • Extra-Supports Provided: • At first sign of student need • To all students who need it (no triage) • Diagnostic tools insure it’s the right support (e.g. cognitive or socio-emotional) • Moderate intensity but if needed continuously available Intensity of interventions • Whole School is Organized and Supported to Enable: • Effective instruction (including teacher professional development connected to the early warning indicators) • Safe and positive learning climate • High student engagement (Attend, Behave, Try Hard) • Collective efficacy and all graduate mission among staff

48. The Diplomas Now Model • Instructional Supports • Double dose math & English • Extra help labs • Common college preparatory or high school readiness curricula • Organizational Supports • Inter-disciplinary and subject focused common planning time • Bi-weekly EWI meetings • On-site school transformation facilitator Teacher Team (4 teachers) • Professional Development Supports • Job-embedded coaching - Math and English instructional coaches • Professional learning community • Professional development linked to grade/subject specific instructional practice • Data Supports • Easy access to student data on the Early Warning Indicators • Benchmarks tied to national and state standards • On-site facilitator to leverage EWI data 75-90 students Student Supports • Multi Tiered Response to Intervention Model • 10 to 15 City Year AmeriCorps members: whole school and targeted academic and socio-emotional supports • Communities In Schools on-site coordinator: case managed supports for highest need students • Interventions to address early warning indicators of • Attendance • Behavior • Course Performance • Whole school attendance, positive behavior, college-going culture • Strengthening student resiliency

49. Diplomas Now Sample Results: Philadelphia Middle Schools Diplomas Now partnered with three Philadelphia high poverty middle schools in 2009-2010. These schools average 615 students, 84% of whom are eligible to receive free or reduced price lunch. Below are the aggregate results for all three schools from the 2009-10 school year. Attendance Course Performance Behavior # of Students with less than 80% Attendance # of Students with 3 or more negative behavior marks # of Students receiving an F in Math or English 60 Math 82% Reduction 100 52% Reduction 35 55% Reduction 50 30 English 80 40 25 60 20 30 15 40 78% Reduction 20 10 20 10 5 0 0 0 June 2009 June 2010 June 2009 June 2010 June 2009 June 2010

50. Help Broker Policy Reviews • Schools and communities need to measure and act on chronic absenteeism-the number of students who miss a month or more of school (also measure those who miss a week or less). • Schools and communities need positive behavior support programs and alternatives to suspensions and may need to re-examine their disciplinary policies • Schools and communities need effective second chance and credit recovery programs which hold students accountable but provide a reason for them to keep trying