COMPREHENSIVE PLAN UPDATE Planning and Land Development Regulation Board Workshop January 9, 2010

1. COMPREHENSIVE PLAN UPDATE Planning and Land Development Regulation Board Workshop January 9, 2010

2. UPDATE OF THE COMPREHENSIVE PLAN • Update of Planning Horizon & City Boundaries • Update from 2020 to 2035 • Update Best Available Data • Update affected policies • Requirements of Senate Bill 697 (Energy-Efficiency and Greenhouse Gas Reduction) • Update City Boundaries • Creation of Northwest Corridor Overlay Area (NCOA)

3. FUTURE LAND USE ELEMENT – DATA AND ANALYSIS • Data Used • Bureau of Economic And Business Research (BEBR) Population Projections to 2035 (Medium Series Projections) • Note that DCA has advised that High Series Projections will not be accepted • Historic City growth as a share of County growth.

4. FUTURE LAND USE ELEMENT – DATA AND ANALYSIS • BEBR 2035 Medium Series Projections (County Population Projection) • BEBR is conservative in terms of long-term planning horizons. • BEBR historically has undercounted growth in Flagler County. • City Population Projection (Share of County Population Growth)- Factors to Consider • Historic trends of City capture of County Population • Sufficiency of land use allocation and infrastructure • Continuation of trend is consistent with vision and policy direction of Comprehensive Plan.

5. FUTURE LAND USE ELEMENT – DATA AND ANALYSIS • Historic Trend Analysis • BEBR Estimated City Share of Growth

6. FUTURE LAND USE ELEMENT – DATA AND ANALYSIS • Historic Trend Analysis • Census Estimated City Share of Growth

7. FUTURE LAND USE ELEMENT – DATA AND ANALYSIS • Historic Trend Analysis • Cumulative Share of Countywide Population • City’s share has historically increased since 2000 Census

8. FUTURE LAND USE ELEMENT – DATA AND ANALYSIS • Population Projections • Various Techniques used to project future city share. • Linear Regression of City share percentages • BEBR Shift-share method (increase based on average annual increase during base period – 1.36%) • BEBR Share of Growth (City’s share of growth based on share of growth during base period – 91.4%) • Logistic regression (share is capped at a future level and equation adjusts growth rate in share to conform to cap) • All methods project City’s share to increase over time.

9. FUTURE LAND USE ELEMENT – DATA AND ANALYSIS • FINDINGS—POPULATION PROJECTION • Using the most conservative projection, BEBR Share of Growth, City’s population share will be 85% in 2035. • Other projections used indicate it occurring much sooner

10. FUTURE LAND USE ELEMENT – DATA AND ANALYSIS • FINDINGS—POPULATION PROJECTION • 2035 Population is 168,112 • 2035 County Population is 198,000 • City share of Population is 84.9%

11. FUTURE LAND USE ELEMENT – DATA AND ANALYSIS • POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS (Since 2000) • Average Household Size has remained virtually unchanged (-.02 to 2.36 persons per household) • State Household Size has increased slightly +.05 to 2.51 • Median Age has decreased by 10 years to median age of 41 • Age Cohorts as percentage of population • 20-35 (+10% to 21%) • 35-65 (-3% to 35%) • 65-85 (-10% to 22%)

12. FUTURE LAND USE ELEMENT – DATA AND ANALYSIS • EMPLOYMENT AND INCOME • Labor force has increased as share of population (+10% to 55.6%) • Median Household Income increased by 12.2% to $46,646, however, state has increased by 25.2% to $48,637.

13. FUTURE LAND USE ELEMENT – DATA AND ANALYSIS • RESIDENTIAL LAND USE NEEDS • Factors affecting land use needs: • Underestimate of population through 2035 • Extent vacant lands develop below maximum allowable densities due to market conditions, regulatory constraints, infrastructure limitations • Extent to which landowners do not pursue development of their lands during planning timeframe • Extent platted lots are passed over due to changing demographics and market preferences

14. FUTURE LAND USE ELEMENT – DATA AND ANALYSIS • RESIDENTIAL LAND USE NEEDS - DEMAND • Variables in projection: • Population Projections • Persons per household (2.38 from Census) • Vacancy Rate • ACS does not indicate whether vacancy has increased from recession or increase in secondary home use. • Analysis will use historic vacancy rate of 12% (In 2000 City vacancy rate was 9%, in 2008 - 16%)

15. FUTURE LAND USE ELEMENT – DATA AND ANALYSIS Projected Needs for Dwelling Units

16. FUTURE LAND USE ELEMENT – DATA AND ANALYSIS • RESIDENTIAL LAND USE NEEDS - SUPPLY

17. FUTURE LAND USE ELEMENT – DATA AND ANALYSIS • RESIDENTIAL LAND USE NEEDS – ADJUSTMENTS • DCA recommends a multiplier of 1.25 Multiplier is amount of land use allocation over projected demand in order to respond to supply factors (building less than maximum density, delays in development, etc.)

18. FUTURE LAND USE ELEMENT – DATA AND ANALYSIS • RESIDENTIAL LAND USE NEEDS – MULTIPLIER • Conclusion: • There is adequate acreage to accommodate projected population. • There is ability to accommodate additional allocation for residential growth.

19. FUTURE LAND USE ELEMENT – DATA AND ANALYSIS • NON-RESIDENTIAL LAND USE-SUPPLY

20. FUTURE LAND USE ELEMENT – DATA AND ANALYSIS • NON-RESIDENTIAL LAND USE NEEDS-EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY (DEMAND)

21. FUTURE LAND USE ELEMENT – GOALS, OBJECTIVES, & POLICIES • Summary discussion of updated data. • Update DRI name from West Palm Coast Park DRI to Palm Coast Park DRI. • Clarification of Density/Intensity limits in DRI land use category. • Update zoning district table under Policy 1.1.1.1 • Update to new zoning districts • Update limitations on densities/intensities to reflect historical trends. • Amend policies to reflect completion of land development code.

22. FUTURE LAND USE ELEMENT – GOALS, OBJECTIVES, & POLICIES • Amend reference from Planned Unit Development (PUD) to Master Planned Development (MPD) • Adopt policy to maintain 5-Year and Long Range Planning Periods • Delete references to Palm Coast Community Service Corporation (PCCSC) • Amend policy to coordinate on a countywide strategic economic development plan.

23. HOUSING ELEMENT – DATA AND ANALYSIS • Data Used • 2006-2008 American Community Survey 3-Year Estimates (For Housing Data) • Shimberg Center for Housing Studies (for Household Socio-Economic Data) • Projections to 2030 only • Uses 2005 BEBR Projections • Update • Comparison of 2000 Census with updated information

24. HOUSING ELEMENT – DATA AND ANALYSIS • Historic Trend Analysis-Existing Housing

25. HOUSING ELEMENT – DATA AND ANALYSIS • Historic Trend Analysis-Existing Housing

26. HOUSING ELEMENT – DATA AND ANALYSIS • Percentage of Households by Income Group • Historic Trend – Percentage of Households by Income Group Source: Shimberg Center for Housing Data

27. HOUSING ELEMENT – DATA AND ANALYSIS Housing Construction Needs (BEBR Projections)

28. HOUSING ELEMENT – GOALS, OBJECTIVES, & POLICIES • Summary discussion of updated data. • Add term “extremely low” as a household category • Add reference to joint County-City housing program • Add reference to new housing programs such as Neighborhood Stabilization Program (NSP). • Objective and Policy related to energy-efficient homes • Renumber various objectives and policies

29. RECREATION & OPEN SPACE ELEMENT – DATA AND ANALYSIS Allocation of Recreation and Open Space Area

30. RECREATION & OPEN SPACE ELEMENT – DATA AND ANALYSIS *Note: Negative Numbers indicate surplus

31. RECREATION & OPEN SPACE ELEMENT – GOALS, OBJECTIVES, & POLICIES • Summary discussion of updated data • Change Table 4.1 Inventory of Parks • Update Policy 4.2.2.1 to reflect completion of various projects • Delete outdated references

32. INTERGOVERNMENTAL COORDINATION ELEMENT – DATA AND ANALYSIS • Add Intergovernmental Agreements since 2004 • Joint Water Supply Settlement Agreement • Joint County-City Housing Program • Coquina Coast Desalination Plant Study • Interlocal Agreement for School Facility Planning

33. INTERGOVERNMENTAL COORDINATION ELEMENT – GOALS, OBJECTIVES, & POLICIES • Delete references to Palm Coast Community Service Corporation (PCCSC), Florida Water Service (FWS) • Amend reference from Dayton Beach Community College to Daytona State College • Amend reference from NEFRPC to NEFRC