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Communicating uncertainty in projections/estimates

Explore the complexities of communicating uncertainty in climate projections and estimates. Learn about the impact of greenhouse gas emissions on global temperatures and extreme weather events. Discover how attribution of temperature changes affects adaptation and mitigation decisions. Gain insights on the relevance of 2011's La Niña year and the importance of adapting to mitigate climate risks. Delve into the factors influencing returns on mitigation and adaptation efforts, considering both U.S. and global mitigation levels.

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Communicating uncertainty in projections/estimates

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  1. Communicating uncertainty in projections/estimates • “if we were to stop emitting greenhouse gases the average global temperature would still increase by 0.5 degrees” • Fahrenheit • By when? • “…average global temperature is still estimated to increase by….”

  2. Attribution of changes in average temperature and extreme events • Broadly observed: • Elevated GHG concentrations are causing an increase in global average temperature. • Elevated GHG concentrations are causing an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather. • Narrowly observed • Elevated GHG concentrations caused the 2011 Texas drought and heat wave. • Elevated GHG concentrations increased the likelihood or odds of an event like the 2011 Texas drought and heat wave. • Also: what was the relevance of 2011 being a La Nina year?

  3. Should we prioritize adaptation or mitigation? • What determines the relative returns to mitigation and adaptation? • Will this depend on the level of U.S. mitigation? • Will this depend on the level of global mitigation?

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