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Analyzing public opinion results on ideology and knowledge levels among liberals and conservatives, exploring factors shaping opinions, and the importance of interest in politics. Discussing the relationship between ideology, knowledge, and factors influencing public opinion. Investigating the impact of attendance on grades and typical ideologies among CU Boulder students.
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Some public opinion results • Do knowledgeable people differ in their ideology? • Percent who are “knowledgeable” • 51% of liberals • 36% of conservatives • What does this mean? • Are liberals more knowledgeable?
Are Knowledge and Ideology Spurious in this Case? • Knowledge and Ideology are related • But… those who are “interested” in politics are twice as likely to be “knowledgeable” about politics (in this sample) • And… liberals are significantly more likely to be interested in politics than conservatives (in this sample)
A= Yes, B = No • Does everyone understand what it means to “control for” interest? • And… liberals are significantly more likely to be interested in politics than conservatives (in this sample)
Are Knowledge and Ideology Spurious in this Case? • Maybe… • If we “control for” interest in politics: • The percent of respondents who are “knowledgeable” • 68% of liberals • 68% of conservatives • In our sample, knowledge and ideology might be spuriouslyrelated.
What Explains Your Ideology? • Your year in school • Your gender • Income (parents’ income) • Mother’s education • News consumption • Trust in people • Discuss politics • Knowledge • Interest in politics • Parents’ Ideology • Trust in Government
Why a “constant” cannot explain variation • What factors would help explain the differences in your performance in this class?
Why a “constant” cannot explain variation • What factors would help explain the differences in your performance in this class? • Attendance • SAT scores • Your major • Hours spent studying • Quality of notes • Participation in recitation • Etc.
GradeAttendance A 100% B+ 95% A- 100% C 100% C 100% D 97% B 100% C 100% A 95% F 100% Can Attendance “explain” differences in grades in this sample of students?
Which of these best describes the typical CU Boulder student? • Strong Liberal • Partly Liberal • Moderate • Partly Conservative • Strong Conservative
What shapes your opinions? • Family • Race/ethnicity • Religion • Region – rural versus urban, west and east versus middle America and south • Social class • Education • Age or life experience • Events – war or economic downturns or upturns
Can we “generalize” from our class survey? • We want to be careful about making broad generalizations from bad survey research • Variables that were left out of our survey • Religion • Region • Etc… • What might be bad about our survey? • Can we generalize to CU?
How We Measure Public Opinion • In general, do not trust a poll that does not tell you who sponsored the poll, the question wording, the sampling method, and the ways in which respondents were contacted. • Reputable pollsters will also tell you the number of respondents (the ‘N') and the error rate (+ or - 5%, etc.).
Does it matter? • In healthy democracies, broader public opinion matters because of elections • Most politicians are terrified of you • Is this good? Bad? • It matters in the aggregate (as a whole) • It matters over time • Marketplace of ideas • Competition of ideas, even if they are mostly initiated by elites