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Colorado River Update Terry Fulp Deputy Regional Director

Colorado River Update Terry Fulp Deputy Regional Director Bureau of Reclamation, Lower Colorado Region Southern California Water Dialogue July 28, 2010. Colorado River Basin. Operation governed by the Law of the River including: Colorado River Compact (1922)

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Colorado River Update Terry Fulp Deputy Regional Director

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  1. Colorado River Update Terry Fulp Deputy Regional Director Bureau of Reclamation, Lower Colorado Region Southern California Water Dialogue July 28, 2010

  2. Colorado River Basin • Operation governed by the Law of the River including: • Colorado River Compact (1922) • Boulder Canyon Project Act (1928) • U.S. Mexican Water Treaty (1944) • Colorado River Storage Project (1956) • Supreme Court Consolidated Decree (1964 and following) • Colorado River Basin Project Act (1968) • Variable hydrology • 60 million acre-feet of storage capacity • System operated on a tight margin

  3. Water Budget at Lake Mead Given basic apportionments in the Lower Basin, the allotment to Mexico, and an 8.23 maf release from Lake Powell, Lake Mead storage declines • Inflow = 9.0 maf (release from Powell + side inflows) • Outflow = - 9.6 maf (AZ, CA, NV, and Mexico delivery + downstream regulation and gains/losses) • Mead evaporation loss = - 0.6 maf • Balance = - 1.2 maf Data based on long-term averages

  4. Natural FlowColorado River at Lees Ferry Gaging Station, ArizonaWater Year 1906 to 2009

  5. State of the System (1999-2010) • Inflow based on latest CBRFC forecast; storage and percent capacity based on April 2010 24-Month Study

  6. 2007 Interim Guidelines Operations specified for full range of operation for Lake Powell and Lake Mead Strategy for shortages in the Lower Basin Mechanism in Lower Basin to encourage efficient and flexible use and management of Colorado River water (ICS) In place for an interim period (through 2026)

  7. Colorado River Basin Storage(as of July 25, 2010) *Total system storage was 35.61 maf or 60% this time last year

  8. 2010 Upper ColoradoProjected Apr–Jul Inflow as of July 15, 2010 Flaming Gorge – 59% Blue Mesa – 69% Navajo – 83% Lake Powell – 73%

  9. Lake Powell Capacity 24.3 maf 3,700 ft Equalization Tier 63ft Equalization Elevation (WY 2010) 3,642 ft 15.67 maf (64% of Live Capacity) 3,637 ft Upper Elevation Balancing Tier 3,575 ft 147 ft Mid-Elevation Release Tier 3,525 ft Lower Elevation Balancing Tier 3,490 ft Min Power Pool Inactive Pool (4.0 maf) 3,370 ft Dead Pool Dead Pool (1.9 maf) As of Jul 25, 2010 Not to scale

  10. Lake Mead Capacity 1,219.6 ft 25.9 maf Surplus Conditions 132 ft 15.9 maf 1,145 ft Normal or ICS Surplus Conditions 1,088 ft 10.42 maf (40% of Live Capacity) 38 ft 1,075 ft Shortage Conditions Min Power Pool 1,050 ft Inactive Pool (7.5 maf) Lower SNWA Intake 1,000 ft Dead Pool Elevation 895 ft Dead Pool (2.0 maf) As of Jul 25, 2010 Not to scale

  11. Colorado River Water Supply & Use

  12. Colorado River Basin Water Supply and Demand Study • Two-year, $2 million study cost shared by Reclamation and the Basin States • Assess future water supply and demand imbalance • Assess risks to all basin resources • Investigate options and strategies to mitigate impacts • A transparent, collaborative study with input from all stakeholders • Email: • ColoradoRiverBasinStudy@usbr.gov • Website: • http://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/ • programs/ crbstudy.html

  13. Scenario Approach toward Addressing Uncertainties Water Supply Scenarios Water Demand Scenarios Storyline Approach to Plausible Future Demands Baseline Demands Alternative Futures by Storylines More Intensive Demands (higher population growth, less water use efficiency, lower technology use) Less Intensive Demands (stable population growth, more water use efficiency, rapid technology adoption) Hydroclimatic Variability & Change (Past, Present, and Future) • Observed Historic Record • Paleo-Conditioning • Paleo Record • Downscaled Climate Projections

  14. Some Climate Change Projections for the Colorado River Basin Source: Ray et al., 2008

  15. Methodology to Incorporate Modeled Future Projections of Climate Change into Water Supply Projections 3 Scenarios Emissions Scenarios 16 GCMs Planning Model Climate Simulations 112 Traces Hydrologic Model Spatial Downscaling 112 Projections

  16. Preliminary Results of 112 Inflow Projections

  17. Timeline - Milestones Jan 2012 Final Study Report and Appendices Complete Oct 2011 Draft Study Report and Appendices Complete Sep 2011 Options and Strategies Analysis Complete April 2011 System Reliability Analysis Complete Current and Future Water Supply Assessment Complete Sep 2010 Current and Future Water Demand Assessment Complete

  18. Colorado River Basin Water Supply and Demand Study • Email: • ColoradoRiverBasinStudy@usbr.gov • Website: • http://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/ • programs/ crbstudy.html

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