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Russia -2020: Technological Modernization. XI International Economic Forum in Peterburg. 2007. ЦМАКП. A new stage of development. Today, a new agenda is formed. The focus shifts from stabilization to sustainable growth .

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Russia-2020: Technological Modernization

XI International Economic Forum in Peterburg

2007

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ЦМАКП

A new stage of development

  • Today, a new agenda is formed. The focus shifts from stabilization to sustainable growth.
  • Oil “windfall profit”-based growth opportunities present today are obviously exhausted in the mid-term perspective
  • In addition, new critical long-term challenges arise:
  • demography – labor scarceness and ageing population lead to a к быстрому росту пенсионной нагрузки. There is also a range of migration challenges;
  • technology – a start of a new technology age in developed countries.

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ЦМАКП

Challenges and limitations on growth perspectives

Energy:

  • More capital-intensive extraction meansless return on prospective investments;
  • A rise in demand for edge-cutting technologies as resource extraction is harder in new fields/deposits.

Shipping:

  • Competition wth China (TRACECA is almost complete, 300-400 km left);
  • конфликт с другими направлениями использования опорной транспортной сети (Транссиб);

Hi-tech capabilities:

  • Insufficient focus on top research priorities;
  • Lack of adequate researchers in some areas;
  • Lack of shared vision of technological development by government, business and research society. Widening rift between fundamental and applied science, and between demand from business and applied science
  • Need for venture institutions supporting large projects;
  • Distorted motivation for business innovations

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ЦМАКП

  • Technological modernization is a key :
  • realizing competitive advantages in science and technology
  • mass industry modernization

Research potential

  • Russia is among top 15 research spenders (PPP-based);
  • Russia is the third on number employed in science after U.S. and China по численности занятых в этой сфере;
  • Russian science retained ability to conduct contemporary research in wide range of areas

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ЦМАКП

The scope of research potential

Domestic R&D spending (PPP-based USD bn, 2004)

R&D employment (thousands, 2004)

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ЦМАКП

Research potential: resource concentration

R&D spending on a person employed (PPP USD ‘000, 2004)

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ЦМАКП

Research potential: cost and result

Hi-tech exports and R&D spending (as % of GDP, 2001)

Loss from cost-result disparity in innovations is estimated at 23-25 USD bn. per year.

Unrealized technology export gains account for 22-24 USD bn. per year, while undervalued exports account for another 1 USD bn.

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ЦМАКП

Research potential: goals for Russia

  • To secure developed markets position:
  • products should conform to quality and technology standards;
  • customer needs should be a priority;
  • life-long service and maintenance for production.
  • 2. To provide sustainable growth
  • 3-5% yearly energy intensity decrease;
  • 6-7% yearly labor productivity increase;
  • energy industry development measures – new APP development, extraction under unfavorable natural conditions; gas transit from arctic zone.
  • 3. To realize national technological achievements and advantages:
  • aerospace industry (WIG craft, supersonic passenger aircraft, гиперзвуковые ЛА);
  • nuclear energy (fast neutron reactors)

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ЦМАКП

Research potential: internal goals

Required efficiency growth (%)

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ЦМАКП

Research potential: development strategies

  • Catching-up scenario
  • Provide the needs of business, energy industry and national defense with minimum risk:
  • intensive research on a limited scope of technologies needed by energy industry and Ministry of Defense;
  • development of innovation system to select and adapt imported technologies.
  • 2. Local leadership scenario
  • Emergence of a strong national R&D system. Active participation in hi-tech markets based on technological advantages:
  • edge-cutting technological achievements realizing competitive advantage in research and emergence of new markets;
  • launching global projects lead by Russian enterprises;
  • developing R&D institutions to match ongoing R&D to business demand.

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ЦМАКП

National competitiveness

New R&D policy

  • Combining institutional and project approach
  • new technology monitoring system;
  • shared vision of future developments by business and government (technology foresight);
  • focus on a limited number of breakthrough projects with sizeable system impact;
  • forming national innovation infrastructure. Institutionalization of technology market, including intellectual property protection;
  • providing incentives for hi-tech upgrade of the industry.

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ЦМАКП

Research potential: probable impact from implementation

Capabilities for increasing export of machines and equipment(USD bn)

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