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Methodology to model the future energy scenario for China

Methodology to model the future energy scenario for China. Kejun JIANG Kjiang@eri.org.cn Energy Research Institute, China. UNFCCC Workshop on emissions projections of Annex I Parties 6-8 September 2004 Wissenschaftszentrum Bonn. ERI, China. ERI, China. Framework of IPAC.

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Methodology to model the future energy scenario for China

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  1. Methodology to model the future energy scenario for China Kejun JIANG Kjiang@eri.org.cn Energy Research Institute, China UNFCCC Workshop on emissions projections of Annex I Parties6-8 September 2004Wissenschaftszentrum Bonn ERI, China ERI, China

  2. Framework of IPAC Environment industry Pollutant emission Medium/long-term analysis Energy demand and supply Price/investment Economic impact Medium/long-term analysis IPAC-SGM IPAC-MATERIAL Energy demand and supply Full range emission Price, resource, technology Medium-long term analysis Economic impact Energy demand and supply Price/investment Medium/long-term analysis IPAC-TIMER IPAC-Emission Technology development Environment impact Technology policy IPAC/Tech Medium/short term analysis Technology assessment Detailed technology flow IPAC/AIM-Local IPAC-AIM/tech Region analysis Medium/short analysis Energy demand and supply Technology policy AIM-air IPAC-health ERI, China ERI, China

  3. Understand future energy: a multiple model approach • IPAC-AIM/technology model: Bottom-up model for China • IPAC-emission model: global model • IPAC-SGM: CGE model • IPAC-Ele: power generation model • IPAC-AIM/transport • IPAC-AIM/local: regional model for China

  4. Linkage in IPAC Parameter Environment economy Energy Strategy Energy and Emission scenario Technology strategy Top-Down SGM TIMER IGEM Bottom-up model AIM/Tech MESSAGE AIM/Local General equilibrium IPAC-e sectors Dynamic economy Regions/Beijing Common scenario IPAC-Air Common parameters IPAC-Health

  5. ERI: IPAC-AIM/Technology model • Bottom-up model for China • 26 sectors • Least cost option model • More than 500 technologies • Medium-term scenario(2030)

  6. - Boiler - Heating - Oil - Power generation - Lighting - Coal - Blast furnace - Steel products - Gas - Air conditioner - Cooling - Solar - Automobile - Transportation - (Electricity) Technology Energy Consumption Service Demands Selection CO2 Emissions - Population growth - Technology price - Energy type - Economic growth - Energy consumption - Energy price - Industrial structure - Service supplied - Energy constraints - Employees - Share - CO2 emission factor - Lifestyle - Lifetime Structure of IPAC-AIM/Technology Model Energy Service Energy Energy Technology Energy Database for China Technology Database for China Socio-economic Scenario for China Structure of IPAC- AIM/ Technology model

  7. Technology List ERI, China ERI, China

  8. Steel production process in China Coke making Sintering DIOS or Direct Iron making Pig Iron COREX Reduction Steel making Recycled steel Electric Furnace Convertor Open Hearth Casting Continuous Casting Heating Hot Rolling Steel Heating Cool Rolling Steel

  9. Identify efficiency promised technologies

  10. ERI: IPAC-AIM/Local model • Bottom-up model for 31 provinces in China • 9 sectors • More than 500 large point sources • Focus on regional development

  11. ERI: IPAC-AIM/Transport model • Application of IPAC-AIM/technology model for transport • For China, Beijing(extra large city), Taiyuan(large city), and Langfang(small city)

  12. IPAC-Emission • Partial equilibrium model • Global model:9 regions • 3 economic sector: industry, building and transport • Energy sources: coal,oil, natural gas, modern biomass, hydro, nuclear, unconventional oil, unconventional gas, wind and solar • Cover all emission source: energy activities, industrial process and land use • Technology description: medium level cover around 40 technologies • Long-term analysis up to 2100 • 9 gases:CO2，CH4，NOx, N2O，CO，SO2，HFC，PFC，SF6)

  13. IPAC-Emission

  14. ERI: IPAC-SGM • A CGE model • dynamic model • 22 sectors • Energy, economic activities and environment issues • Up to 2050 • 6 gases

  15. Module of SGM

  16. Economy Target of China in 2020 • Government Target: Overall wealthy society • On the basis of economy structure optimal and increasing profit, GDP will be four time in 2020 comparing with that in 2000，realize fundamental industrialization”； • Take a new way for industry development； • “continually increase ability for sustainable development”；

  17. GDP Per Capita

  18. Average living area per capita, m2

  19. Car Ownership

  20. Primary Energy Demand Scenarios 6000 5000 4000 Mtce 3000 2000 1000 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 Year

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