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Estimating Net International Migration for the United States. Elizabeth M. Grieco Immigration Statistics Staff U.S. Census Bureau. Presentation for the joint UNECE/Eurostat Work Session on Migration Statistics, Geneva, 3-5 March 2008. Overview of Presentation.

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estimating net international migration for the united states

Estimating Net International Migration for the United States

Elizabeth M. Grieco

Immigration Statistics Staff

U.S. Census Bureau

Presentation for the joint UNECE/Eurostat Work Session on Migration Statistics,

Geneva, 3-5 March 2008

overview of presentation
Overview of Presentation
  • How does the Census Bureau estimate net international migration?
  • How does the Census Bureau use the American Community Survey (ACS) to estimate net international migration?
  • How does the Census Bureau estimate the emigration of the foreign born?
  • What are the results of the vintage 2007 net international migration estimates?
population estimates
Population Estimates
  • The U.S. Census Bureau produces annual estimates of the population and demographic components of change (births, deaths, and migration)
  • One component of the population estimates is net international migration (NIM), defined as the net movement across U.S. borders
    • 50 states and the District of Columbia
  • For this presentation NIM does not include international movement of U.S. military personnel
sub components of the net international migration estimates
Sub-Components of the Net International Migration Estimates
  • This presentation will discuss:
    • Net foreign-born migration between the United States and abroad
    • Net movement between the United States and Puerto Rico
    • Net movement of natives between the United States and abroad
  • National-level estimate, distributed:
    • To the county level
    • By detailed characteristics
      • Age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin
using the american community survey acs to estimate nim
Using the American Community Survey (ACS) to Estimate NIM
  • Annual nationwide survey
  • NIM estimates, and estimates research, use seven years of ACS data, 2000-2006 (household population only)
  • Full implementation: 2005
  • Sample size (in thousands):
acs question citizenship
Native

Foreign born

ACS Question: Citizenship
  • “Is this person a CITIZEN of the United States?”
  • Yes, U.S. citizen by naturalization
  • No, not a citizen of the United States
acs question residence one year ago
ACS Question: Residence One Year Ago
  • “Did this person live in this house or apartment 1 year ago?”
  • No, outside the United States – Print name of foreign country, or Puerto Rico, Guam, etc. below

_____________________

old method used 2002 2006 single year change syc
-

FB: NetMig

Single Year Change

Change in FB population during interval(SYC = FB in ACS t2 – FB in ACS t1)

FB: Deaths

Deaths to FB population during interval

PR: NetMig

Net migration between the U.S. (50 states and D.C.) and Puerto Rico

N: Emig

Native emigration

+

+

Data source:ACS

Data source:NCHS life tables, ACS population

Data source:DAPE research

Data source:DAPE research

Net Foreign BornMigration (NFB)

Old Method (used 2002-2006):Single Year Change (SYC)
problems with nfb estimates based on single year change
Problems with NFB Estimates Based on Single Year Change
  • High standard errors
  • Sensitive to changes in survey population controls
  • Annual reweighting of ACS data required to provide consistent series of NFB estimates
  • Estimate is a net, and must be distributed as such
    • No separate estimates of ins/outs
new method proposed for v 2008 residence one year ago roya
Net Native Migration

Net Puerto RicoMigration

Net Foreign BornMigration

New Method (proposed for v.2008):Residence One Year Ago (ROYA)

-

-

PR: Emig

Migration from the U.S. (50 states and D.C.) to Puerto Rico

FB: ImmigResidence One Year Ago Was Abroad Foreign born, who were “abroad” one year ago

FB: Emig

Emigration of the foreign-born population during interval

PR: Immig

Migration from Puerto Rico to the U.S. (50 states and D.C.)

N: Immig

Native immigration

+

+

N: Emig

Native emigration

-

Data source:ACS

Data source:Rates applied to ACS FB population

Data source:ACS

Data source:PRCS

Data source:ACS

Data source:

ISS research

roya foreign born immigrants
ROYA: Foreign-Born Immigrants
  • Question on ACS: Where did this person live one year ago?
  • Immigrants: Foreign-born who were abroad (outside the U.S. and U.S. outlying areas) one year ago, plus an adjustment for zero-year-old entrants
  • Estimates range from 1,032,000 to 1,431,000*

*numbers are rounded

roya foreign born emigrants
ROYA: Foreign-Born Emigrants
  • Residual method used to generate rates by period of entry (more than/less than 10 years ago)
  • Rate applied to eligible population (eligible to emigrate)
  • Eligible population: Foreign-born who were in the U.S. one year ago (ACS)
  • Estimates range from 211,000 to 232,000*

*numbers are rounded

roya puerto rico immigrants
ROYA: Puerto Rico Immigrants
  • Question on ACS: Where did this person live one year ago?
  • Immigrants (moved from P.R. to U.S.): People in ACS who reported a residence one year ago of Puerto Rico, plus an adjustment for zero-year-old entrants
  • Estimates range from 47,000 to 63,000*

*numbers are rounded

roya puerto rico emigrants
ROYA: Puerto Rico Emigrants
  • Question on Puerto Rico Community Survey (PRCS): Where did this person live one year ago?
  • Emigrants (moved from U.S. to P.R.): People in PRCS who reported a residence one year ago of the U.S., plus an adjustment for zero-year-old emigrants
  • Estimates range from 30,000 to 35,000* *numbers are rounded
roya native immigration
ROYA: Native Immigration
  • Question on ACS: Where did this person live one year ago?
  • Immigrants: Natives who were abroad (outside the U.S. and U.S. outlying areas) one year ago, plus an adjustment for zero-year-old entrants
  • Estimates range from 379,000 to 470,000*

*numbers are rounded

roya native emigration
ROYA: Native Emigration
  • Currently doing research to update the estimate of this subcomponent for our 2008 estimates
how does the u s census bureau estimate foreign born emigration
How Does the U.S. Census Bureau Estimate Foreign-Born Emigration?
  • Estimate emigration for 2000 to 2005 and 2000 to 2006 by period of entry groups using a “residual” method
  • Create annual emigration rates
  • Estimate annual emigration of the foreign born
residual method of estimating emigration 2000 2005
Residual Method of Estimating Emigration: 2000 - 2005
  • Foreign-Born Emigration (2000-2005) =
  • (FB Pop (Census 2000) – Deaths (2000-2005))– FB Pop (ACS 2005)

Note: Both Census 2000 and ACS 2005 data are restricted to the foreign-born population whose year of entry was 1999 or earlier.

residual method of estimating emigration 2000 2006
Residual Method of Estimating Emigration: 2000 - 2006
  • Foreign-Born Emigration (2000-2006) =
  • (FB Pop (Census 2000) – Deaths (2000-2006))– FB Pop (ACS 2006)

Note: Both Census 2000 and ACS 2006 data are restricted to the foreign-born population whose year of entry was 1999 or earlier.

create annual emigration rates numbers in thousands
Create Annual Emigration Rates(numbers in thousands)

Note: Above rates are based on un-rounded numbers and expressed as percents.

final annual emigration rates
Final Annual Emigration Rates
  • Average the period-of-entry specific emigration rates for the 2000-2005 and 2000-2006 time periods
  • Final Rates (percent per year):
    • Period of entry more than 10 years ago: 0.28
    • Period of entry within the last 10 years: 1.40
estimate annual emigration of the foreign born
Estimate Annual Emigration of the Foreign Born
  • Apply period-of-entry specific rates to each year of ACS, 2000 to 2005, to estimate annual foreign-born emigration
  • Population in universe: foreign-born population whose residence one year ago was in the United States
constructing final vintage 2007 nim estimates
Constructing Final Vintage 2007 NIM Estimates
  • Transition from old to new method by phasing in the new method
  • Average v.2006 SYC-based estimates and v.2007 ROYA-based estimates (by subcomponent) to create final v.2007 NIM estimates

(in thousands)

for more information
For More Information
  • Elizabeth M. Grieco
  • Chief,
  • Immigration Statistics Staff
  • Email: Elizabeth.M.Grieco@census.gov
  • Phone: 301-763-5275
  • Website: www.census.gov
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