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Estimating Net International Migration for the United States

Estimating Net International Migration for the United States. Elizabeth M. Grieco Immigration Statistics Staff U.S. Census Bureau. Presentation for the joint UNECE/Eurostat Work Session on Migration Statistics, Geneva, 3-5 March 2008. Overview of Presentation.

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Estimating Net International Migration for the United States

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  1. Estimating Net International Migration for the United States Elizabeth M. Grieco Immigration Statistics Staff U.S. Census Bureau Presentation for the joint UNECE/Eurostat Work Session on Migration Statistics, Geneva, 3-5 March 2008

  2. Overview of Presentation • How does the Census Bureau estimate net international migration? • How does the Census Bureau use the American Community Survey (ACS) to estimate net international migration? • How does the Census Bureau estimate the emigration of the foreign born? • What are the results of the vintage 2007 net international migration estimates?

  3. Population Estimates • The U.S. Census Bureau produces annual estimates of the population and demographic components of change (births, deaths, and migration) • One component of the population estimates is net international migration (NIM), defined as the net movement across U.S. borders • 50 states and the District of Columbia • For this presentation NIM does not include international movement of U.S. military personnel

  4. Sub-Components of the Net International Migration Estimates • This presentation will discuss: • Net foreign-born migration between the United States and abroad • Net movement between the United States and Puerto Rico • Net movement of natives between the United States and abroad • National-level estimate, distributed: • To the county level • By detailed characteristics • Age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin

  5. Using the American Community Survey (ACS) to Estimate NIM • Annual nationwide survey • NIM estimates, and estimates research, use seven years of ACS data, 2000-2006 (household population only) • Full implementation: 2005 • Sample size (in thousands):

  6. Native Foreign born ACS Question: Citizenship • “Is this person a CITIZEN of the United States?” • Yes, U.S. citizen by naturalization • No, not a citizen of the United States

  7. ACS Question: Residence One Year Ago • “Did this person live in this house or apartment 1 year ago?” • No, outside the United States – Print name of foreign country, or Puerto Rico, Guam, etc. below _____________________

  8. - FB: NetMig Single Year Change Change in FB population during interval(SYC = FB in ACS t2 – FB in ACS t1) FB: Deaths Deaths to FB population during interval PR: NetMig Net migration between the U.S. (50 states and D.C.) and Puerto Rico N: Emig Native emigration + + Data source:ACS Data source:NCHS life tables, ACS population Data source:DAPE research Data source:DAPE research Net Foreign BornMigration (NFB) Old Method (used 2002-2006):Single Year Change (SYC)

  9. Problems with NFB Estimates Based on Single Year Change • High standard errors • Sensitive to changes in survey population controls • Annual reweighting of ACS data required to provide consistent series of NFB estimates • Estimate is a net, and must be distributed as such • No separate estimates of ins/outs

  10. Net Native Migration Net Puerto RicoMigration Net Foreign BornMigration New Method (proposed for v.2008):Residence One Year Ago (ROYA) - - PR: Emig Migration from the U.S. (50 states and D.C.) to Puerto Rico FB: ImmigResidence One Year Ago Was Abroad Foreign born, who were “abroad” one year ago FB: Emig Emigration of the foreign-born population during interval PR: Immig Migration from Puerto Rico to the U.S. (50 states and D.C.) N: Immig Native immigration + + N: Emig Native emigration - Data source:ACS Data source:Rates applied to ACS FB population Data source:ACS Data source:PRCS Data source:ACS Data source: ISS research

  11. ROYA: Foreign-Born Immigrants • Question on ACS: Where did this person live one year ago? • Immigrants: Foreign-born who were abroad (outside the U.S. and U.S. outlying areas) one year ago, plus an adjustment for zero-year-old entrants • Estimates range from 1,032,000 to 1,431,000* *numbers are rounded

  12. ROYA: Foreign-Born Emigrants • Residual method used to generate rates by period of entry (more than/less than 10 years ago) • Rate applied to eligible population (eligible to emigrate) • Eligible population: Foreign-born who were in the U.S. one year ago (ACS) • Estimates range from 211,000 to 232,000* *numbers are rounded

  13. ROYA: Puerto Rico Immigrants • Question on ACS: Where did this person live one year ago? • Immigrants (moved from P.R. to U.S.): People in ACS who reported a residence one year ago of Puerto Rico, plus an adjustment for zero-year-old entrants • Estimates range from 47,000 to 63,000* *numbers are rounded

  14. ROYA: Puerto Rico Emigrants • Question on Puerto Rico Community Survey (PRCS): Where did this person live one year ago? • Emigrants (moved from U.S. to P.R.): People in PRCS who reported a residence one year ago of the U.S., plus an adjustment for zero-year-old emigrants • Estimates range from 30,000 to 35,000* *numbers are rounded

  15. ROYA: Native Immigration • Question on ACS: Where did this person live one year ago? • Immigrants: Natives who were abroad (outside the U.S. and U.S. outlying areas) one year ago, plus an adjustment for zero-year-old entrants • Estimates range from 379,000 to 470,000* *numbers are rounded

  16. ROYA: Native Emigration • Currently doing research to update the estimate of this subcomponent for our 2008 estimates

  17. How Does the U.S. Census Bureau Estimate Foreign-Born Emigration? • Estimate emigration for 2000 to 2005 and 2000 to 2006 by period of entry groups using a “residual” method • Create annual emigration rates • Estimate annual emigration of the foreign born

  18. Residual Method of Estimating Emigration: 2000 - 2005 • Foreign-Born Emigration (2000-2005) = • (FB Pop (Census 2000) – Deaths (2000-2005))– FB Pop (ACS 2005) Note: Both Census 2000 and ACS 2005 data are restricted to the foreign-born population whose year of entry was 1999 or earlier.

  19. Residual Method of Estimating Emigration: 2000 - 2006 • Foreign-Born Emigration (2000-2006) = • (FB Pop (Census 2000) – Deaths (2000-2006))– FB Pop (ACS 2006) Note: Both Census 2000 and ACS 2006 data are restricted to the foreign-born population whose year of entry was 1999 or earlier.

  20. Create Annual Emigration Rates(numbers in thousands) Note: Above rates are based on un-rounded numbers and expressed as percents.

  21. Final Annual Emigration Rates • Average the period-of-entry specific emigration rates for the 2000-2005 and 2000-2006 time periods • Final Rates (percent per year): • Period of entry more than 10 years ago: 0.28 • Period of entry within the last 10 years: 1.40

  22. Estimate Annual Emigration of the Foreign Born • Apply period-of-entry specific rates to each year of ACS, 2000 to 2005, to estimate annual foreign-born emigration • Population in universe: foreign-born population whose residence one year ago was in the United States

  23. Annual Foreign-Born Emigration: 2000-2005(numbers in thousands)

  24. Constructing Final Vintage 2007 NIM Estimates • Transition from old to new method by phasing in the new method • Average v.2006 SYC-based estimates and v.2007 ROYA-based estimates (by subcomponent) to create final v.2007 NIM estimates (in thousands)

  25. ROYA- and SYC-based NIM Estimates, 2001-2008 Periods (in thousands)

  26. ROYA- and SYC-based NIM Estimates, 2001-2008 Periods (in thousands)

  27. For More Information • Elizabeth M. Grieco • Chief, • Immigration Statistics Staff • Email: Elizabeth.M.Grieco@census.gov • Phone: 301-763-5275 • Website: www.census.gov

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