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The Projection of Future Air Quality for Regional scale considering Climate Change Scenarios

The Projection of Future Air Quality for Regional scale considering Climate Change Scenarios. Nankyoung Moon 1 , Sung-You Hong 2 , Soontae Kim 3 , Jung-Hun Woo 4 1 Korea Environment Institute, 2 Yonsei University, 3 Ajou University, 4 Konkuk University. Contents. 1. Background.

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The Projection of Future Air Quality for Regional scale considering Climate Change Scenarios

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  1. The Projection of Future Air Quality for Regional scale considering Climate Change Scenarios • Nankyoung Moon1, Sung-You Hong2, SoontaeKim3, Jung-Hun Woo4 • 1 Korea Environment Institute, 2Yonsei University, • 3Ajou University, 4KonkukUniversity

  2. Contents 1 Background 2 Multi-scale Modeling System 3 Climate Change & Air Quality 4 Summary

  3. 1. Background • Ozone concentrations are sensitive to temperature, humidity, wind speed, and mixing height, etc. • Changes in climate over the next century are expected to result in changes in many or all of these meteorological parameters, which could have important impacts on air quality. • To project the effects of global climate change on regional air quality in Korea.

  4. Global Scale (~200km)-ECHAM5 Regional Scale (Asian region: 50km)-RSM Local Scale (East Asia region: 27km)-WRF Urban Scale (Korean Peninsula: 9km)-WRF,CMAQ 2. Multi-scale Modeling System Downscaling Method Return

  5. ECHAM5 (Max-Plank-Institute for Meteorology) (Roeckner et al. 2006, J. Climate) RMIP phase III (RCM intercomparison project over Asia, Beijing workshop, May 2008) Global Precipitation & Temperature RMIP domain (171*131(50km)) Global Temperature • GCM forcing : ECHAM5 • For control climate: 1978-2000 • For future climate: 2038-2070 • Participants : 11 RCM group including • YonseiUniv, RSM (Korea, China, Japan, • Russia, Austrailia, USA)

  6. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model

  7. Future climate (2000~2100) Current climate Precipitation Anomaly during 1979-2006 over the East Asia region (105E-150E, 25N-45N) 2055 1995 2055 : Median year during the RMIP III period (2038~2070) 1995 summer : near normal summer

  8. Experimental Setup 1994~1996 JJA: Current summer climate simulations 2054~2056 JJA: Future summer climate simulations ECHAM5 WRF (27km) WRF (9km) RSM (50km) BC by 1-way nesting WRF (27km) WRF (9km) RSM (50km) BC & IC BC & IC ECHAM5 Global  Asia East Asia Korea Global  Asia East Asia Korea

  9. 3. Climate Change & Air Quality Results – Summer Climate East Asia (RSM) • JJA Accumulated Precipitation (mm) Present (1994-1996) Observation (CMAP) Future (2054-2056) Future - Present Precipitation will be increase except for the eastern part of Tibetan Plateau and the north pacific area in the future climate.

  10. Results – Summer Climate East Asia (RSM) • JJA 500 hPageopotential height (m) Future (2054-2056) Present (1994-1996) Future - Present The north pacific cyclonic will strengthen in the future

  11. Results – Summer Climate East Asia (RSM) • JJA 850 hPa wind (m s-1) and specific humidity (kg kg-1) Future(2054-2056) Present (1994-1996) Future – Present The marine water vapor in the future diverse well compare to the present climate over the north Pacific area. The specific humidity increase in the future climate.

  12. Results – Summer Climate East Asia (RSM) • JJA 850 hPageopotential height (m) and temperature (℃) Future (2054-2056) Present (1994-1996) Future – Present The mean temperature in Korea, Japan and the north pacific area will increase by approximately 2℃.

  13. Kangwon Sudo Chungcheong Youngnam Honam Analysis Area

  14. Wind & Specific Humidity • JJA 850 hPa wind (m s-1) and specific humidity (kg kg-1) Future (2054-2056) Present (1994-1996) Difference (Future-Present) • Future Climate • Flow changes sounthwest from west • Increasing of specific humidity

  15. Surface Maximum Mean Temperature 1994 1995 1996 2054 2056 2055

  16. Surface Maximum Mean Temperature 1994~1996 2054~2056 3-yr Mean Maximum temperature difference (Future – Current : 1.54 ℃)

  17. Surface Minimum Mean Temperature 1996 1994 1995 2054 2056 2055

  18. Surface Minimum Mean Temperature 1994~1996 2054~2056 3-yr Mean Minimum temperature difference (Future – Current : 1.44 ℃)

  19. Surface Mean Temperature 1995 1994 1996 2056 2055 2054

  20. Surface Mean Temperature 1994~1996 2054~2056 3-yr Mean temperature difference (Future – Current : 1.51 ℃)

  21. Surface Temperature - JJA Diff. ( Future – Current) Daily Mean Min. Temp. Daily Mean Max. Temp. Daily Mean Temp. (Unit:℃)

  22. Accumulated Precipitation 1994 1995 1996 2054 2056 2055

  23. Accumulated Precipitation 1994~1996 2054~2056 3-yr Mean Accumulated precipitation difference (Future – Current : 76.7mm)

  24. Accumulated Precipitation (mm)

  25. Maximum Mean PBL height 1994 1996 1995 2055 2054 2056

  26. Maximum Mean PBL height 1994~1996 2054~2056 3-yr Mean Maximum PBL height difference (Future – Current : -11m)

  27. Maximum Mean PBL height (mm)

  28. Mean PBL height 1995 1996 1994 2054 2055 2056

  29. Mean PBL height 1994~1996 2054~2056 3-yr Mean PBL height difference (Future – Current :-24m)

  30. Mean PBL height (m)

  31. Air Quality Modeling with US EPA’s CMAQ Community Multi-pollutant Multi-scale Air Quality Modeling System

  32. Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model

  33. SMOKE processing KEI-EIPS Input data • Format conversion • DB/ASCII  IDA • SCC mapping • Split factors for • chemical speciation • Temporal profiles • Surrogates • Spatial allocation for • county-based emissions Spatial allocation ; domain-specific Temporal allocation ; hourly resolved emissions Chemical speciation ; CB4, SAPRC99, RADM2 Plume rise ; Point Sources Area AQF Annual Nonroad Annual Mobile MIMS Spatial Allocator Annual Emissions Shape files Point Annual, Monthly Emissions processing with SMOKE

  34. Non-road Area NO (ex.) Point Point Mobile

  35. Kangwon Sudo Chungcheong Youngnam Honam Model Domain MCIP & CMAQ 27 – 9km Regional Scale ℃

  36. Model vs Observation

  37. Simulation Case Emissions Case Run Climate Change X ○ Met_only ○ A1B ○ • Met_only : Considered only meteorology change due to climate change with the same • level of present emissions • A1B : Considered both meteorology change and emissions change in the future

  38. Emissions (present)

  39. Emission Projection Factor (2055)

  40. Future Emissions NO2 SO2 CO Present Future (Unit : moles/s)

  41. Surface Mean O3 Concentration(met_only) 1995 1994 1996 2054 2056 2055

  42. Surface Mean O3 Concentration (met_only) 1994~1996 2054~2056 3-yr Mean O3 Concentration Difference (Future – Current)

  43. Surface Mean O3 Concentration (met_only) (ppb)

  44. Surface Mean O3 Concentration(A1B) 1994 1995 1996 2054 2056 2055

  45. Surface Mean O3 Concentration (A1B) 1994~1996 2054~2056 3-yr Mean O3 Concentration Difference (Future – Current)

  46. Surface Mean O3 Concentration (A1B) (ppb)

  47. Process Analysis - IPR (Integrated Process Rate) : can be used to determine the relative contributions of individual physical and chemical process

  48. Process Analysis for Surface Ozone

  49. Process Analysis for Surface Ozone

  50. Process Analysis for PBL Ozone

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