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The Projection of Future Air Quality for Regional scale considering Climate Change Scenarios. Nankyoung Moon 1 , Sung-You Hong 2 , Soontae Kim 3 , Jung-Hun Woo 4 1 Korea Environment Institute, 2 Yonsei University, 3 Ajou University, 4 Konkuk University. Contents. 1. Background.

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the projection of future air quality for regional scale considering climate change scenarios

The Projection of Future Air Quality for Regional scale considering Climate Change Scenarios

  • Nankyoung Moon1, Sung-You Hong2, SoontaeKim3, Jung-Hun Woo4
  • 1 Korea Environment Institute, 2Yonsei University,
  • 3Ajou University, 4KonkukUniversity
contents
Contents

1

Background

2

Multi-scale Modeling System

3

Climate Change & Air Quality

4

Summary

1 background
1. Background
  • Ozone concentrations are sensitive to temperature, humidity, wind speed, and mixing height, etc.
  • Changes in climate over the next century are expected to result in changes in many or all of these meteorological parameters, which could have important impacts on air quality.
  • To project the effects of global climate change on regional air quality in Korea.
2 multi scale modeling system

Global Scale (~200km)-ECHAM5

Regional Scale (Asian region: 50km)-RSM

Local Scale (East Asia region: 27km)-WRF

Urban Scale (Korean Peninsula: 9km)-WRF,CMAQ

2. Multi-scale Modeling System

Downscaling Method

Return

slide5

ECHAM5 (Max-Plank-Institute for Meteorology)

(Roeckner et al. 2006, J. Climate)

RMIP phase III (RCM intercomparison project

over Asia, Beijing workshop, May 2008)

Global Precipitation & Temperature

RMIP domain (171*131(50km))

Global Temperature

  • GCM forcing : ECHAM5
  • For control climate: 1978-2000
  • For future climate: 2038-2070
  • Participants : 11 RCM group including
  • YonseiUniv, RSM (Korea, China, Japan,
  • Russia, Austrailia, USA)
slide7

Future climate (2000~2100)

Current climate

Precipitation Anomaly during 1979-2006 over the East Asia region (105E-150E, 25N-45N)

2055

1995

2055 : Median year during the RMIP III period (2038~2070)

1995 summer : near normal summer

slide8

Experimental Setup

1994~1996 JJA: Current summer climate simulations

2054~2056 JJA: Future summer climate simulations

ECHAM5

WRF (27km)

WRF (9km)

RSM (50km)

BC by 1-way nesting

WRF (27km)

WRF (9km)

RSM (50km)

BC & IC

BC & IC

ECHAM5

Global  Asia East Asia Korea

Global  Asia East Asia Korea

3 climate change air quality
3. Climate Change & Air Quality

Results – Summer Climate East Asia (RSM)

  • JJA Accumulated Precipitation (mm)

Present (1994-1996)

Observation (CMAP)

Future (2054-2056)

Future - Present

Precipitation will be increase except for the eastern part of Tibetan Plateau and the north pacific area in the future climate.

slide10

Results – Summer Climate East Asia (RSM)

  • JJA 500 hPageopotential height (m)

Future (2054-2056)

Present (1994-1996)

Future - Present

The north pacific cyclonic will strengthen in the future

slide11

Results – Summer Climate East Asia (RSM)

  • JJA 850 hPa wind (m s-1) and specific humidity (kg kg-1)

Future(2054-2056)

Present (1994-1996)

Future – Present

The marine water vapor in the future diverse well compare to the present climate over the north Pacific area.

The specific humidity increase in the future climate.

slide12

Results – Summer Climate East Asia (RSM)

  • JJA 850 hPageopotential height (m) and temperature (℃)

Future (2054-2056)

Present (1994-1996)

Future – Present

The mean temperature in Korea, Japan and the north pacific area will increase by approximately 2℃.

slide13

Kangwon

Sudo

Chungcheong

Youngnam

Honam

Analysis Area

slide14

Wind & Specific Humidity

  • JJA 850 hPa wind (m s-1) and specific humidity (kg kg-1)

Future (2054-2056)

Present (1994-1996)

Difference (Future-Present)

  • Future Climate
  • Flow changes sounthwest from west
  • Increasing of specific humidity
slide15

Surface Maximum Mean Temperature

1994

1995

1996

2054

2056

2055

slide16

Surface Maximum Mean Temperature

1994~1996

2054~2056

3-yr Mean Maximum temperature difference

(Future – Current : 1.54 ℃)

slide17

Surface Minimum Mean Temperature

1996

1994

1995

2054

2056

2055

slide18

Surface Minimum Mean Temperature

1994~1996

2054~2056

3-yr Mean Minimum temperature difference

(Future – Current : 1.44 ℃)

slide19

Surface Mean Temperature

1995

1994

1996

2056

2055

2054

slide20

Surface Mean Temperature

1994~1996

2054~2056

3-yr Mean temperature difference

(Future – Current : 1.51 ℃)

slide21

Surface Temperature - JJA

Diff. ( Future – Current)

Daily Mean Min. Temp.

Daily Mean Max. Temp.

Daily Mean Temp.

(Unit:℃)

slide22

Accumulated Precipitation

1994

1995

1996

2054

2056

2055

slide23

Accumulated Precipitation

1994~1996

2054~2056

3-yr Mean Accumulated precipitation difference (Future – Current : 76.7mm)

slide25

Maximum Mean PBL height

1994

1996

1995

2055

2054

2056

slide26

Maximum Mean PBL height

1994~1996

2054~2056

3-yr Mean Maximum PBL height difference

(Future – Current : -11m)

slide28

Mean PBL height

1995

1996

1994

2054

2055

2056

slide29

Mean PBL height

1994~1996

2054~2056

3-yr Mean PBL height difference

(Future – Current :-24m)

slide31

Air Quality Modeling with US EPA’s CMAQ

Community

Multi-pollutant

Multi-scale

Air Quality

Modeling

System

slide33

SMOKE processing

KEI-EIPS

Input data

  • Format conversion
  • DB/ASCII  IDA
  • SCC mapping
  • Split factors for
  • chemical speciation
  • Temporal profiles
  • Surrogates
  • Spatial allocation for
  • county-based emissions

Spatial allocation

; domain-specific

Temporal allocation

; hourly resolved emissions

Chemical speciation

; CB4, SAPRC99, RADM2

Plume rise

; Point Sources

Area

AQF

Annual

Nonroad

Annual

Mobile

MIMS Spatial

Allocator

Annual

Emissions

Shape files

Point

Annual, Monthly

Emissions processing with SMOKE

slide34

Non-road

Area

NO (ex.)

Point

Point

Mobile

slide35

Kangwon

Sudo

Chungcheong

Youngnam

Honam

Model Domain

MCIP & CMAQ

27 – 9km

Regional Scale

slide37

Simulation Case

Emissions

Case Run

Climate Change

X

Met_only

A1B

  • Met_only : Considered only meteorology change due to climate change with the same
  • level of present emissions
  • A1B : Considered both meteorology change and emissions change in the future
slide40

Future Emissions

NO2

SO2

CO

Present

Future

(Unit : moles/s)

slide42

Surface Mean O3 Concentration (met_only)

1994~1996

2054~2056

3-yr Mean O3 Concentration Difference

(Future – Current)

slide44

Surface Mean O3 Concentration(A1B)

1994

1995

1996

2054

2056

2055

slide45

Surface Mean O3 Concentration (A1B)

1994~1996

2054~2056

3-yr Mean O3 Concentration Difference

(Future – Current)

slide47

Process Analysis

- IPR (Integrated Process Rate)

: can be used to determine the relative

contributions of individual physical and

chemical process

slide53

C-R Function

Premature deaths due to ozone increase

  • The mortality effect of increased ozone concentration on the population of
  • RoKwas estimated using the C-R (Concentration-Response) function.
  • b : The increasing ratio of premature deaths in RoK
  • ΔO3 : The difference of max. 8-hr ozone con. btwn future and present
  • Pop : Population
slide54

Estimation of premature deaths

  • In was estimated that the total no. of premature deaths sue to increased ozone
  • concentrations in the future (2055) compared with present (1995) is 4,160 under
  • climate change (A1B case), and 2,294 under meteorology change alone.
4 summary
1. Future climate in ROK from the A1B scenario

Temperature : increase 1.54 ℃ of mean max. temp.

PPTN : increase 76.7mm

Wind : west → southwest

Specific humidity : increase

PBL : decrease 11m of max. mean PBL

2. The impact of climate change on regional scale air quality was evaluated under the SRES AB1 scenario.

Met_olny : increase 6.1ppb of max. 8-hr ozone concentration in JJA

A1B : increase 14.4ppb of max. 8-hr ozone concentration in JJA

4. Summary
4 summary1
3. Frequency of 8-hr O3 concentrations exceeding 60 ppb (NAAQS)

Met_only : 22.73

A1B : 10.75

4. Ozone concentration will be increased even if human activities continue as they are, not to mention under the future emissions.

5. Process Analysis

The effect of advection related to meteorology is relatively dominant rather than the other factors

4. Summary