EUROCONTROL ETS Support Facilities and Fuel Estimator tool

1. EUROCONTROL ETS Support Facilitiesand Fuel Estimator tool Antonio Astorino

2. Objectives • Present • Eurocontrol • Eurocontrol Fuel Estimator (Small emitters tool) • Eurocontrol Support Facility for ETS aviation’s Stakeholders (Reporting Monitoring and Verification) • States/Competent Authorities • Aircraft operators • ETS-SF architecture and data provider services • Monitoring, Reporting and Verification process support

3. What is Eurocontrol ? • Public International Organisation • Not an institution of the EU • 49 years of existence • 2000+ persons staff specialised in Aviation • Multi-projects Organisation

4. EUROCONTROL and the EU

5. What Eurocontrol is doing ? : Coordination Body • Pan-European Technical and operational « Coordination » body between : • a) Air Navigation Service Providers (ANSP) and Civil Aviation Authorities (CAA) through Europe • b) Telecommunications and transport National agencies and ministers through Europe • c) Aircraft Operators (AO) as well as their associations (IATA, ERA, EBAA, IAOPA…..) • d) Military and NATO • e) European Commission & Agencies – EASA, ESA • f) ICAO EUR NAT and Montreal, FAA (USA) • g) Standardisation bodies • ARINC/EUROCAE/ETSI • g) Industry partners • Airframe manufacturers ,Engine manufacturers • Aircraft on board systems, ATC systems

6. What Eurocontrol is doing ? Manages and Operates • Manages pan-European Air Traffic Management (ATM) Implementation programs and defines ATM standards • Operates pan-European ATM functions at every seconds • - Central Flow Management Unit (CFMU) • - MAASTRICH upper airspace control centre • - Central Route Charge Office (CRCO)

7. What are ENV activities in Eurocontrol ? • ETS-SF, for CAs and AOs and Verifiers • Fuel estimator for ETS • ELSO, list publication for European Commission • Historical Emissions for CO2 CAP aviation • Others related modelling activities for NOISE, Advance Emissions model • Main partners • EC & MS & CAs & Compliance Forum • ICAO/CAEP WGs • AOs and Verifiers • Support to Regulation and research (1x staff)

8. ETS Aviation process is complex • More than 35xx AOs to report to EU ETS • 5xx Regular AOs • 3xxx Small Emitters • AC/Airframes NB in Europe approx 14xxx • 1 Aircraft = 1 installation • No other alternative energy than Fossil Fuel • 27/30 States, +3 CAs Norway, Lichen, Iceland • MS are responsible for emissions of Administered AO for flights outside their own Airspace (8.000.000 flights/year) • Impossible for States to “control” ETS unless help from Eurocontrol

9. ETS Aviation process is dynamic • At any time Aircrafts change owner/AO • At any time ETS concerned parties/stakeholders change also • 300 changes in AO status per year in CRCO • More States in Future as EU30 or more • AO new entrants in ETS every year • AO at edge of de-minimis (2xxx AOs) thresholds • potential new entrants next years EUROCONTROL offers support to ALL ETS Stakeholders

10. Archives ALL ETS workspace regularly Flight LENGHT(3) CFMU ETS-SF Sys. Architecture Latvia, Estonia, UPR, Iceland CRCO NATIVE DATA Monitoring Production of ETS Specific Data via Fuel estimator & Exemptions Identification (5,7, Commercial) & Geo. Scope & AO attribution (Fleet list and CA feedback) Flights Y + Y-1 Exemp-tions Data Workspace for ETS CRCO Data extracts monthly ELSO* data updates AO Fleets Hist. Airspace • +ETS Data • Exemptions • Fuel Estimate • C02 Estimate AO Admin data Hist. AO-SE CA Report for AOs Aggregated, XLS file Report for States Aggregated XLS file AO-SE Support AO’s Verification CSV file all flights detailed * Eurocontrol List Support Office

11. Background FUEL ESTIMATOR– Fuel Burn Data Acquisition in 2009 • Request for cooperation from EUROCONTROL’s Director General on 11 February 2009 to Air Transport Associations • First data set received in March 2009 • Last data set received week of 2 June 2009 • Most data received late May 2009

12. Emissions Estimation Methodology • ANCAT (Abatement of Nuisances Caused by Air Transport) also known as EMEP/CORINAIR • Recommended by ECAC: “ECAC Member States should calculate the emissions of aviation as accurately as possible using ANCAT method number three as described in the Guidance Material” (ECAC 27/3, 8-9 July 2003) • http://reports.eea.europa.eu/EMEPCORINAIR5/en/page002.html

13. ( ) , = Generic Aircraft Type Flown Distance CFMU Based Actual Route Length ANCAT 3 – EMEP/CORINAIRInput & Output Data Emissions

14. Fuel Burn Influencing Factors, ANCAT, Best Available Data

15. Main factors influencing fuel burn of ONE flight • Mass of Aircraft during flight • PAX (0-10%, EBAA example) • Fuel (40%) • Tank management Strategy • Jet or turbo prop • Airframe (50%) • Distance (no height effects) • GCD (+95km) • Actual (radar tracks) • Time • Meteo • ATM (LTO, stacks,,rerouting) • Cost Index (business type) • Cumulated effect : two “identical” flight, same ADES ADEP, same distance, same aircraft type could vary +/- 40%

16. Fuel Burn Data Samples (1) • 23 aircraft operators: • European business aviation • European legacy carriers • European leisure carriers • European low fares carriers • European regional carriers • Non-European legacy carriers from the following continents: Africa, Asia, and North America • Each aircraft operator provided data for one or more months for 2004, 2005 and/or 2006.Few provided data for periods relating to2007 or 2008

17. Fuel Burn Data Samples (2) • Data for 59 aircraft types, covering both jet and turbo-prop aircraft. • For 54 of them, the sample data has been deemed valid. • The remaining 5 aircraft types were discarded because of insufficient sample data

18. Fuel Burn Dispersion

19. A320 Fuel Burn Distribution

20. A320 Fuel Burn Distribution with Fit

21. B744 Fuel Burn Distribution

22. B744 Fuel Burn Distribution with Fit

23. Methodology after Reconciliation (1) • AO SAMPLE • If sample data then use new fit • AO EQV • If aircraft of same type of a sample (e.g. RJ70 vs. RJ1H) then use sample new fit with correction factor based on MTOW ratio

24. Methodology after Reconciliation (2) • ANCAT with new delta factor • If aircraft in ANCAT but not in sample, use ANCAT data with a delta factor based on difference between ANCAT aircraft family regression and sample aircraft family regression

25. Methodology after Reconciliation (3) • REGRESSION • If neither of the previous, then use average fuel per nautical mile based on model from sample aircraft family regression X

26. Fuel Burn Statistics

27. Airport Coverage Representativeness

28. Airport Pairs from AO Sample

29. 2004 2005 2006 Cluster CO Confidence CO Confidence CO Confidence 2 2 2 share Interval share Interval share Interval SAMPLE 92.2% 0.02 % 92.6% 0.02% 93.0% 0.02% EQV 4.6% 0.10% 4.6% 0.10% 4.8% 0.10% ANCAT 1.6% 0.29% 1.5% 0.30% 1.0% 0.33% REGRESSION 1.5% 26.49% 1.3% 25.36% 1.2% 21.87% TOTAL 100.0% 0.41 % 100.0% 0.34 % 100.0% 0.27 % Confidence Intervals of Eurocontrol Fuel (and CO2) estimator(Based on a confidence level of 99.5%) • A confidence level of 99.5% with a confidence interval of 1.5% means that by estimating the CO2 emissions using another data sample of the same size, there is a probability of 99.5% that the newly estimated CO2 emissions are within ±1.5% of the previously calculated CO2 emissions

30. Eurocontrol Fuel Estimator = Small emitters tool • Same algorithm as standalone tool is used in ETS-SF and in the Generated AER and CSV reports & files • also used in calculation of Historical Emissions at EC request (coherency) • Is a STATISTICAL tool, very good estimator performances IF : • Applied to Multiple flights records • More flight more accurate aggregated (sum) CO2 • CAP example (8.000.000 flights) • Aircraft types in use in AO fleet • If all fleet in Regression model aircraft types, increased uncertainties on Fuel and CO2 estimates • Mixed fleet (sample and regression), better accuracy

31. Fuel Estimator feedback from Airlines • comments (major airline) CO2 estimates is very accurate • comments on Fuel over-estimates considerable for some Aircraft types (147 Jets concerned) • Minor ‘advantage’ in the CAP work • As a statistical tool, the tool also under-estimate fuel and CO2 in some cases (turbo prop) but no comments received so far, silent majority ?

32. Small emitters tools Next STEPS • => by the end of 2011at the latest more accurate models of some aircrafts types, Fuel and CO2 estimated values in AER and CSV files more reliable ! • Regression model Class improvement • 3 (or 4) sub class and not one • Reduction of Fuel and CO2 estimates by 23% in average for 147 Jets concerned (20 to 40%) • Gathering additional actual fuel burn from AOs • many contribution, actual fuel data, received since few months

33. Contributing to EMEP/CORIANCAT • Fuel modelling are available (and will be improved) • Linear parameters by Aircraft types will be published on a regular basis by Eurocontrol • Eurocontrol will propose a complementary methodology to be an input to the review of ANCAT/Emep-Corinair in coordination with JRC ISPRA • Specificities : • CO2 only • “Specific” LTO concept (intercept at distance 0) hardly differentiable from cruise

34. Questions ? • Thank you • Contacts : • Fuel model update • antonio.astorino@eurocontrol.int • ETS-SF project manager • Stefano.mancini@eurocontrol.int

35. Acronyms • AER Annual Emission Reports • AO Aircraft Operator • AC Aircraft • ATM Air Traffic Management • CA Competent Authority • CFMU Central Flow Management Unit • CRCO Central Route Charge Office • ETS : Emission Trading Scheme (as per Directive xx and related legislation MRV, interpretation etc…) • EC European Commission • EEA European Economic Area • ENV Environment • ELSO Eurocontrol List Support Office (in relation with AO-MS List published in June by EC) • ETS-SF ETS Support facility • EURO Eurocontrol • LEN3 Route Length Model 3 as from Flight Plan corrected when significant deviations • MRV Monitoring Reporting and Verifications • MS Member State • SE Small Emitters • SES Single European Sky • SESAR Single European Sky ATM Research • TKR Tonnes Kilometres Reports • XML Extensible Markup Language