Security team “League of brains”

1. Securityteam “League of brains” Laxemburg, 7.December 2017

2. The World in 2040

3. Trends 2040 • Separation • Development: Technological, Medical and Cyber • Nationalization • Regionalization • Ecological changes & mass migration • Value of resources

4. Problems

5. Risks • Migration flows • Fragmentation • Regionalization of conflicts • Proliferation of actors • Economic disparity • emerging anarchies • new cold war • Social instability • Resources conflicts • Movement of states

6. 1. Geopolitical threats:

7. 1. GEOPOLITICAL THREATS: Competitive Regionalism NATO vs CSTO ▶ Strategic Distrust between U.S./E.U. and Russia/C.I.S. Q. Why NATO still EXISTS and even EXPANDS toward EAST? (U.S.-led geopolitical containment against Russia) Q. Why Russia keeps THREATENING European Security? (Russia as a main security threat against E.U.)

8. 1. GEOPOLITICAL THREATS: Cooperative Regionalism SCO and CICA ▶ Strategic Partnership among Russia-China-Central Asia- Other Asian countries Q. What are Our Common THREATS (not common ENEMIES)? (Three Evils: Terrorism, Separatism, Religious Extremism) Q. How to Promote COMPREHENSIVE Security Cooperation? (Embracing New Members: India and Pakistan)

9. 1. GEOPOLITICAL THREATS: Brief Recommendations ☞ For Present Policymakers ☜ Define Common THREATS, not Common ENEMIES!!! EX) NATO-CSTO Cooperation for Restoring Stability and Preventing Threats from Afghanistan ☞ For Future Policymakers ☜ Embrace Different Types of Security Architecture!!! EX) Youth Exchanges among CICA-CSTO-NATO-OSCE-SCO Future Security Experts

10. 2. Secessionism

11. Secessionism • Secessionism is increasingly finding space on the agenda of many sub-groups, with different socially-constructed characteristics from the central State and the major community (language, culture, religion, nationality, ethnicity, … ) • Secessionism is not a threat per se: it might rather be stabilising (Singapore, Czechoslovakia). • ! However, it becomes relevant from the security point of view in most of the cases (Yugoslavia, Donbass, nagorno-karabakh, east timor, sudan)

12. Secessionism: risks: • DOMINO EFFECTS • SITUATIONS OF EMERGING ANARCHIES • DISINTEGRATION OF STATES • PROLIFERATION OF HARMFUL NON-STATE ACTORS • ETHNIC CONFLICTS

13. Secessionism: three pillars:

14. Secessionism: 4 conditions “Societal security” (Waever, 1993) = physical or cultural threats to a distinct community: language issues in the processes of State building (examples: Georgia, Ukraine).

15. Projects for achievment • Allow teaching and official use of local languages alongside the State one – State, local and private investments are welcome • Social Integration of the local distinct community in the State’s polity and RELATIVE processES of State building (partially kazakhstan) Solutions can only be achieved through the mediating role of the state’s and international institutions as neutral platforms of dialogue

16. Recommendations • Foster dialogue between the parties both at national and supra-national level (osce framework – minsk and Vienna as examples) • Decentralisation of state prerogatives, modelled upon asymmetrical federative or autonomous polities (Italy, Russia) • Respect for minority rights and States’ territorial integrity

17. 3. Social security and inner stability

18. 3.

19. PROJECT GOALS • Making communities resistant to challenges and threats by strengthening inner processes • Strengthening inner processes-covering all fields and spheres from economics to gender equality • Common goals-common interest-bridge

20. Issues within societies- a step towards common goals- they exist everywhere from Lisbon to Shanghai- their stabilization will lead to higher level of resistance of the communities Economic stability Cultural and confessional issues-bridge between mentalities Ecological security Gender equality Technological development-cyber Medical development

21. How to implement this project,? The center will be dealing with the stabilization of inner processes-economical stability, ecological security etc. with a focus on inner specifics of each state-member. For this reason each center department will represent specific issue To bring it into force-an intergovernmental platform should be created which will cover the space of EU-EAEU-SCO and will be open to other regional integrations The center will directly communicate with public through special online platform in order to secure that every individual having an idea for stabilization of any process has a chance to propose it. It will be in a research center format After the ideas are selected, the proposals based on them are sent to the executive sectors of regional blocks dealing with the issues mentioned in the proposals The centre will be represented in every regional block –therefore each regional block will have its own center

22. Financial Resources This proposals will be promoted on the “crowdfunding platforms” where people will be encouraged to support the proposal by making donations. The top donation will bring its author special prize such as official membership ticket which will be a pass to official meetings etc. Crowdfunding will be useful to evaluate the efficiency of the project and will be beneficial for both sides The crowdfunding will occupy the important position in project’s funding: A potential participant will send his/her idea to the center, the ideas/proposals will be selected and the authors will get an opportunity to receive grants for further researches concerning their proposals (field works etc.) How will it be done? The project will be funded by the Regional Blocks

23. 3 Cs– Scenarios1.C - ooperation2.C - oexistence3.C - onfrontation

24. 1. Cooperation • Cooperation between regional blocs over common threats • OSCE & SCO as models for negotiation • Settlements of territorial disputes • Intergovernmental cooperation with society • Sustainable exploitation of natural resources

25. 2. Coexistence • No further development of cooperative frameworks • Pollicization of membership to organizations and States • Stronger regionalist attitude • Limited cooperation over different understandings of goals

26. 3. Confrontation • Geopolitical confrontation between regional blocs • Fragmentation and failure of states –State as an internal threat • Competition over appropriation of resources • Identity conflicts and social instability

27. Key DRIVERS • People • Governments • institutions • skill revolution • Globalization • Unpredicted or negative consequences of development

28. Recommendations

29. Recommendations • Adaptation of a new “rule of nations” = Charta of “Security parament” • minorities’ representation in internal parliament • Foundation regional youth platforms to discuss internal and religion problems

30. Recommendations • Prioritize common goals • Synthesize different visions • Foster regional security approaches • Act according to local specifics

31. Technological map • https://trello.com/b/wGza5i56/the-security-group

32. Contacts: • Aisuluuabdubachaeva: aisuluu.abdubachaeva87@gmail.com • Elia Bescotti: elia.biscotti@gmail.com • Dmitry Erokhin: info@rusdeu.de • IntizorGulyamova: igulyamova@outlook.com • FarkhadGumarov: Farkhadgumarov@Yandex.ru • Kim Min Koel: kim.m.k@mgimo.ru • Irina ledneva: irinaledneva2013@Yandex.ru • Alina matieva: matieva-alina88@Yandex.ru • Kirill mednikov: kirillmednikov@gmail.com • Daria Mishina: d.o.mishina@gmail.com • Zhanartulindinova: zhanar79@list.tu • Simon Stüben: Simon_stueben@Hotmail.de