After the Cold War and the Modern World

1. After the Cold War and the Modern World

2. The Post-Cold War World, main trends: --Unprecedented expansion of capitalism --Formation of the global capitalist class, which has absorbed former communist elites --Unprecedented rise of US global influence --Ideological dominance of neoliberalism --Lack of major ideological alternatives to the new status-quo --Logic of the market vs. logic of democracy --Steady buildup of tensions and conflicts: from relative peace to a global war mode --Discovery of climate change: new stage in the growth of eco-consciousness --The global economic crisis

3. The Post-Cold War World: 3 periods

4. First Period,1991-2000: Triumph of the West • Russia’s transition crisis • The Unipolar Moment: US hegemony at its peak • The Western expansion • Formation of the global neoliberal regime • Second Period, 2001-2008: US Hegemony Tested • The Islamist challenge and the Bush response • Development of a multipolar system • Russia’s resurgence • Relative decline of US hegemony • Third Period, 2008- • The global economic crisis • Obama and the American perestroika • The rise of China as a global power • Europe: From integration to fragmentation? • Reset in Russia’s relations with the West

5. 2 international perspectives on Soviet foreign policy • USSR AS A PROBLEM • an empire dominating Eurasian Heartland • a global subversive force undermining capitalism • USSR AS A SOLUTION • a key ally against Hitler • a source of help to developing countries (support of national liberation movements, economic assistance) • a counterbalance to the US

6. Contraction of Russian power

7. NATO enlargement, 1949-2004

8. Main changes in Russia’s international role following the end of the Cold War: 1. Reduction of the main parameters of Russia’s power • Territorial losses • Economic depression • The military crisis • Ideological neutralization • after being a key part of the Global Left for most of the 20th century, Russia joined the Global (neoliberal) Right 2. Russian society was opened to the impact of global forces with minimal regulation by the state 3. Political affiliation with the West 4. Reluctant acceptance of US hegemony

9. Post-Soviet Russia was no longer a problem for the West in the Cold War sense: • Russia’s abandonment of its Soviet mode became a key enabling factor for the formation of the global neoliberal regime • RUSSIA AS A “NORMAL COUNTRY”: capitalist, cautious, status quo, pragmatic, with limited ambitions, seeking friends everywhere, wary of making enemies

10. RUSSIA AS A PROBLEM AFTER THE COLD WAR • The transition crisis: dangerous side-effects of reforms: • The nuclear dimension • Possibility of a totalitarian backlash • Potential for civil war • Tensions with new neighbors, attempts to maintain a sphere of influence in the post-Soviet space • Russia as a US client: no longer counterbalancing the US (not a problem for the US, but a problem for many other states) – or: • Russia as a member of coalitions to counterbalance US hegemony (a problem for the US)

11. The dominant American perspective: • HelpRussia become a “normal” country • PreventRussia from acting as a counterbalance • Control Russia’ behaviour to keep it congruent with US interests • Expand US influence into the post-Soviet space Perspectives outside the US: • Many countries would like Russia to play the role of a non-hostile, but relatively independent, actor in international politics • Most Russians have the same perspective

13. US National Intelligence Council forecast for the year 2025, unveiled in October 2008, described Russia as • One of four rising centers of international power: “In terms of size, speed, and directional flow, the transfer of global wealth and economic powernow under way — roughly from West to East — is without precedent in modern history . . . . No other countries are projected to rise to the level of China, India, or Russia, and none is likely to match their individual global clout. . . . • Growth projections for Brazil, Russia, India, and China (the BRICs) indicate they will collectively match the original G-7’s share of global GDP by 2040-2050.” “Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World”. Washington: National Intelligence Council, November 2008 - http://www.dni.gov/nic/NIC_2025_project.html , pp. vi, vii

14. The Russian economy needs major modernization to be competitive • The new Russian state is in many ways dysfunctional and needs major reforms to meet Russia’s challenges • The Russian society is deeply split by social inequality • Continued resurgence requires new policies and reforms

15. The structure of Russia’s exports: 93% raw materials

16. Russia’s military power • Mid-1980s – defense spending accounted for 15-17% of Soviet GDP • Massive cuts following dissolution of USSR in 1991 • Steady rise since 2000 – by 15-25% a year • In 2006, a new state armaments program, which will span 2007-2015, was adopted • Price tag: 4.9 trillion rubles (US$186 billion). • 63% is to be allocated for the procurement of modern weapons and equipment • 27% towards defense research and development. • 2009 – defence spending accounts for 2.5% of Russia’s GDP • normal level for a Western country

18. Topol-M, Russia’s new mobile ICBM

19. A Tu-95 over the Arctic

20. Russian infantry in Georgia, August 2008

21. A Russian warship in the Caribbean

22. Russia is buying a Mistral amphibious assault ship from France

23. NATO – Russia military balance • Total armed forces personnel 3:1 • Military aircraft 10:1 • Tanks 3:1 • Artillery 2:1 • Naval ships 2:1 • Submarines 3:1 • Aircraft carriers 19:1 • How real is this picture? • Partly

24. Comparing 1917 and 1991: • The Romanov Empire collapsed as a result of a revolution, the elites were overthrown and replaced by new elites as a result of the civil war • The Communist elites moved to divide the empire to recast themselves as leaders of independent nation-states – • or of units of the Russian Federation • A key reason why the Soviet empire made a relatively quiet exit was because key Soviet elites saw a future for themselves after communism • Transition to capitalism would enable most of them to maintain and even enhance their power and privilege

25. Having dissolved the empire, the new elites have been engaged in competition and cooperation between themselves to: • secure their control, • reform their political-economic systems, • find new places in the regional and global orders THIS STRUGGLE OVER THE IMPERIAL SPOILS IS THE ESSENCE OF THE NEW INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS IN EURASIA • Some of them stick together • Russian Federation • Commonwealth of Independent States • GUUAM - Military Cooperation between Georgia, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan and Moldova • Others go their own separate ways, look for new partnerships • Meanwhile, many other states are exploring opportunities to expand their influence in Eurasia

26. They can be mutually reinforcing, making it possible to achieve significant foreign policy gains. • They can be mutually exclusive, forcing Russia’s leaders to make hard choices between them, which makes policy setbacks likely. • They can be managed through tradeoffs, which requires great political skills, significant and diverse power resources, and effective institutions.

27. Choices andbalancesbetween market and geopolitical considerations in Russia’s international behavior. • If the market imperative is considered decisive: • Russia can be expected to try to market its geopolitical assets – that is, to achieve economic gains through a skillful use of its unique geopolitical position. • If the geopolitical imperative becomes uppermost: • Russia may adopt mercantilist stances and use market interactions with other countries to achieve maximum possible geopolitical gains. • Different forces within Russia favor different market-geopolitical balances.

28. Russian elite interests The oligarchy – the upper crust of the new capitalist class, product of the post-communist transformation • Most important sources of wealth: oil, gas and arms • Dependent on the West, primarily the US • Dependent on the Russian state, wants to rationalize it • Needs traditional foreign policy assets of the USSR • Assertive in the political sphere • Seeks economic opportunities worldwide • Intertwined with state bureaucracy

29. The Bureaucrats • The “enforcers” (siloviki) – military and security elites • Determined to get upper hand over the oligarchs, get their property • Institutionally and traditionally suspicious of the West • Interested in a restoration of a stronger and more authoritarian Russian state, but on a capitalist basis • Federal civilian bureaucracy • Interested in whatever protects and increases their power • Regional bureaucracies, regional foreign policy interests

30. The national bourgeoisie • Well belowthe ranks of the oligarchy • Gets little from the West • Feels dominated by the oligarchs • Is nationalist and protectionist • The politicians • 1990s: liberals, communists, nationalists, “United Russia”– becoming the ruling party under Putin • The Westernizer-Eurasianist divide – and synthesis

31. Russian threat perceptions • Security – internal and external • Control of resources • Russia’s defence capability • Technological lag behind the West • Negative demography

33. Globescan poll of Russians, April 2009 http://surveys.globescan.com/bbc_russia09/

34. Russia’s foreign policy compass • West - US, EU, NATO • East – China, India, Japan • South - the Muslim world • North - the Arctic

35. The dominant trends in Russian foreign policy thinking • Relations with the West are top priority • No desire to confront the West • Recognition of Western concerns • But also: • Primacy of national interests, emphasis on independence • Claim for “special interests” in the post-Soviet space • Multivector foreign policy – active engagement with other international actors • Pragmatism • Primacy of trade and investment issues • Readiness for dialog, for development of joint solutions to problems

36. Post-Cold War Period for America

37. The Persian Gulf War • Saddam Hussein, dictator of Iraq • Iraq invaded its wealthy neighbor Kuwait on August 2, 1990 because of an oil dispute. • The U.S. dispatched troops to Saudi Arabia to prevent Iraq expansion. • Desert Shield • The U.N. authorized the use of force to dislodge Iraq from Kuwait. • By January 1991, George Bush had put together a 28 nation coalition

39. The Gulf War • Operation Desert Storm • Air attack began on January 17 against Baghdad • Ground attack began on February 24 and lasted only 4 days • Cease fire on February 28 • Saddam Hussein remained in power. • Continued economic sanctions

40. Recession and Downsizing • The former Cold War Rivals began the process of downsizing the military. • Private businesses also began “restructuring” and “downsizing” • Economic recession • Increased inflation and unemployment and decreased production. • The recession would be short and self-correcting. • “Peace dividend” • The economic situation improved by 1996.

41. Unleashing Globalization • The end of the Cold War removed many impediments to globalization. • With many of the political and ideological obstacles to international integration dissolving, capital, commodities, people, and culture crossed borders with ever-greater freedom. • Tariffs and immigration laws changed.

42. Trade Integration • East Asia • China went from 5 to 12 percent of the world’s GDP • Singapore, Taiwan, South Korea, and Hong Kong became mini-powerhouses • Over 25 percent by 1989 • North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) (1993) • U.S., Mexico, and Canada • Maastricht Treaty (1991) • The constitution for the European Union, which was to be a fully integrated trading and financial bloc • Single European Currency (the euro)

43. Israeli-Palestinian Arab Conflict • The Palestinian Authority led by Yasir Arafat • Israel led by Yitzhak Rabin • Oslo Agreements (1993-94) • Series of withdrawals by the Israelis and the turnover of land to the Palestinian Authority • Palestinian self-rule in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank.

44. www.fmep.org/maps/

45. Israeli-Palestinian Arab Conflict • Unresolved issues • Status of Jerusalem • Both claimed sovereignty over Jerusalem. • Security issues • Control of water resources • Ultimate status of the Palestinian entity • Palestinians believed the process would lead to complete independence. • Israeli Prime Minister Rabin assassinated in 1995. • Sporadic violence on both sides continues.

46. Yugoslavian Turmoil (The Balkans) • Ethnic and religious conflicts in Bosnia and Croatia • Orthodox Serbs, Catholic Croats, and Bosnian or Albanian Muslims • “Ethnic Cleansing” • Dayton Accord (1995) • NATO and Peacekeeping mission. • Intervention in Kosovo • Muslim Albanians outnumbered Serbs. • Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic asserted Serbian control through martial law. • NATO launched air strikes in 1999. • Milosevic resigned in 2000.

48. Post-Cold War Shifts in Political Power (Move to Center) • U.S. (1992) • Republican George Bush is defeated by Democrat Bill Clinton • France (1995) • Neo-Gaullist Jacques Chirac was elected to replace the socialist Mitterrand. • Great Britain (1997) • Conservative John Major defeated by the Labour Party and Tony Blair • Germany (1998) • Social Democrat Gerhard Schroder was elected to replace Helmut Kohl’s more conservative party. • Schroder and Blair moved their nations to the political center by advocating a “Third Way” between socialism and capitalism • Russia (2000) • Vladimir Putin wins in 2000 after Yeltsin resigns

49. Internet - Introduction • The Internet has revolutionized computers and communications like nothing before • Has world-wide broadcasting capability • A mechanism for information dissemination • A medium for collaboration and interaction without regard for geographic location

50. World Wide Web • Tim Berners-Lee and others at the European Laboratory for Particle Physics, more popularly known as CERN, proposed a new protocol for information distribution in 1991 based on hypertext • Hypertext is a system of embedding links in text to link to other text