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application of simple models in a complex environment john jarrett atkins 19th august 2009 n.
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Defence

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Defence

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  1. Application of Simple Models in a Complex Environment John Jarrett – Atkins 19th August, 2009 Defence Measuring the Benefits of Technologies to Expeditionary Campaign Infrastructure

  2. British Forces Deployments since WW II

  3. Camp/Base requirements • Self reliant • Water • Bulk water • Potable water • Power • Waste Management • Solid waste • Water • Bodily waste • Protection

  4. Camp requirements • Facilities • Medical • Staff Working Environment (Command and Control) • Workshops • Accommodation • Sleeping • Catering • Ablutions • Welfare

  5. Types of Camps • Forward Operating bases • Mobile • Tented Accommodation • Basic facilities

  6. Types of Camps • Transitory Camps • Static • Establish a presence in an area • Improved Tented Accommodation • More sophisticated facilities • A/C • Shower facilities • etc.

  7. Types of Camps • Temporary Camps • Static • Longer term • Temporary Deployable Accommodation • More sophisticated facilities

  8. Vulnerabilities • Protection • Personnel • Stores • Fuel • Water • Re-supply • Fuel • Water • Food

  9. Re-supply • Long lines of Communication • High demand for fuel and water • Regular requirement for vulnerable convoys to maintain operations • More convoys require more fuel

  10. Some statistics • A 7500 man camp uses about 12 million litres of fuel per year on Generators alone • That requires 3 Tankers per day • Generators use about 60% of all fuel delivered to a camp • The Camp Stores about a third of a million litres just for generators • Two thirds of the fuel will be used to power air-conditioning units and to heat water (predominantly for Showers and washing)

  11. Focus Area • Energy and Water identified as key areas: • Offer greatest potential for improvement through technology • Alternative Energy sources offer the potential of ‘free’ energy • The Accommodation, Ablutions and Catering areas contained the vast majority of the requirement for Heating/Cooling and Water Heating.

  12. Objective • To be able to identify which future technologies offer the greatest potential to benefit a deployed camp • In a variety of climates • For a range of camp sizes and roles • In that way funding can be directed in order to develop those technologies which offer the most benefit.

  13. Solution • To develop a model to represent the camp as a single system • Modelling the ‘draw’ on power, and • The demand for water • Use this model to represent alternative technologies on different types and sizes of camps in various climates • Use ‘fuel used’ as a Measure of Effectiveness • The less fuel used the more effective the system • Assume constant ‘Capability’

  14. Prototype Model description Accom Accom Ablutions Showers Accom Accom Hot Water Showers 8 persons Hot Water Accom Accom Accom Accom Dining Area Kitchens Accom Accom Dining Area 10 persons Cookers Laundry 50 persons Food Warmers ECU 8 persons External temperature Washing Machines Dryers

  15. Modelling Solution Climate Control Water Demand Power Generation Water Waste Water Heating • A time event simulation package used (SIMUL8) • Fast prototyping • Visual • Easily adaptable • Good Interface • Data input • Output

  16. Validation

  17. Technologies • A technology trawl identified over 300 technologies pertinent to ECI • Of which around 30 were relevant to Environmental control, Water use, Water heating or Power supply • Some examples: • Spray-on foam insulation • Negative ion airflow – air wash • Solar Water heating • Water cooled evaporative air conditioning • Combined Heat & Power • Thermal paint – Heat reflective

  18. Cases • Two climates were considered: • Hot and Dry • Temperate • Three types of Camp • FOB ~ 600 men • Transient ~ 2500 men • Temporary Camp ~ 7000 men • Clearly some Technologies are not relevant to some camp types or climates.

  19. Data and Assumptions • The following Data and Assumptions have been elicited from Stakeholders and reviewed/validated by the Study team

  20. Data and Assumptions

  21. Modelling of Technologies Examples • Condensation Air conditioning (A/C) • Performance assumptions • 60% of normal A/C power reqd. at 35oC plus • 75% below 35oC • 30 litres of water per unit per 8 hours • Assumed not to be recycled • Spray on Foam • Assumptions • Significantly decreased insulation factor (i.e. more insulated) • OCF • Tents not re-usable, no longer agile

  22. Low Technology solutions • Some simple low tech solutions had been identified in order to lower consumption: • A/C on only when personnel present • Timers • Movement sensors • Share generator power between camp sections • Recycling of ‘Grey’ waste water • Approximately 30% of grey waste water is suitable for recycling

  23. Impact of Low Technology solutions

  24. Results – Technology Options

  25. Conclusions • A Camp able to operate solely on locally exploited resources is still a mid to long term goal • More feasible for a FOB (much lower power reqt.) • Solar and Wind power are not constant providers • Storage of energy still has a low efficiency However the adoption of: • efficient running of camp • technologies to lower power/water requirements • technologies identified as being most effective for future investment • Along with alternative power sources

  26. Conclusions Will lead to: • Lower reliance on Fossil fuels • Reduction in day of supply requirement • Fewer resupply convoys (and in turn less fuel required to power the convoys) • Lower storage reqt • Less vulnerable to supply disruption • Reduction in casualties to re-supply convoys • Lower reliance on local Water supplies • Less disruption to water supplies for local population (immediately and for the future) • Reduction in the need for specialist Engineering equipment (Drilling and Purification assets) • Less vulnerable to supply disruption • Smaller logistic footprint on the ground

  27. The shape of things to come?

  28. Questions