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Advisory Board Comments. Scott Denning Roger Francey Neil Turner Dennis Baldocchi. Kudos!. Huge and comprehensive database on many aspects of European carbon cycle Progress toward synthesis ! Very strong showing by young scientists. Generational shift is occurring.

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advisory board comments

Advisory Board Comments

Scott Denning

Roger Francey

Neil Turner

Dennis Baldocchi

kudos
Kudos!
  • Huge and comprehensive database on many aspects of European carbon cycle
  • Progress toward synthesis!
  • Very strong showing by young scientists. Generational shift is occurring.
  • Natural experiment provided by climate anomalies in 2003, 2005. Great opportunistic analysis has yielded impressive results.
  • IAV attribution to processes, cross-component analysis (TD-BU, towers, RS, atmos)!
  • Strong community. Shared purpose. Highly coordinated.
cross component synthesis
Cross-Component Synthesis
  • Facilitated by the improved databases
  • Thurs PM talk by Reichstein/Papale:
    • Site-by-site IAV used to evaluate multiple models (LPJ, ORCH, B-BGC, MODIS)
    • Model intercomparison of same models at continental scale
    • Evaluation of IAV of continental GPP, TER, and NEP to neural net: Process-based integrated analysis
  • Rödenbeck/Peylin:
    • Propagation of same model IAV through transport
    • Comparison to atmos obs (“bottom all-the-way up”)
    • Quantitative comparison to inversion flux anomalies
progress on management effects
Progress on Management Effects
  • Enhanced model analysis (Greengrass, ORCHIDEE-STICS)
  • Impressive analysis of agricultural management (Belelli talk)
  • Forest management and age (Lousteau talk)
  • Fossil fuel attribution (Gamnitzer, Karstens, Levin talk)
  • Designed mitigation (Freibauer talk)
concerns iav is great but
Concerns: IAV is great, but …
  • CE-IP is committed to analysis of time-mean budget?
  • Are transient responses to clivar due to same processes as long-term responses?
  • Euro-budget reflects FF and mgmt of crops, pastures, urban landscape, & forests, not climate
  • Is observing network optimally structured to quantify these mgmt effects? Or rather to “cover veg and climate space?”
  • Inversions only presented for anomalies, with mean budget subtracted!
tick tock
Tick-Tock!
  • Two years left … still big questions to answer!
    • Carbon budget over 5 years (not IAV)
    • Process attribution (not LAI, drought)
    • Kyoto detection/validation
    • Uncertainty
  • Does CE-IP have a contractual obligation to the EU to answer these questions?
  • Task forces targeted on these, but work is not finished (still “assessing”)
synthesis in 2 years
Synthesis in < 2 Years
  • Process understanding, budget, and uncertainty cannot be separated!
  • Uncertainty must be quantitatively propagated from sites -> models -> parameterization -> spatial data sets -> bottom up flux maps (full covariance!)
  • Comparison to top-down to take advantage of covariance info from inversions
mandated synthesis
Mandated Synthesis?
  • Whose job is synthesis? Integration component? Task forces?
  • When and how?
  • Reallocation of resources may be required
  • “Lock key players in a room, and don’t let them out until they’ve written synthesis report”
the future
The Future
  • FP7: life beyond CE-IP?
  • Importance of ongoing obs to distinguish long-term from transient responses
  • ICOS sounds good, but is all “operations.” (“crossing the valley of death”)
  • Need to maintain balance
  • Research will still be needed!
thanks for asking

Thanks for asking!

And thanks for listening