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Presented by Ruth Matt 22 Free Street, Suite 201 Portland , ME 04101 (207)899-0531

Third Quarter 2013 Market Overview. Presented by Ruth Matt 22 Free Street, Suite 201 Portland , ME 04101 (207)899-0531. Economic Summary: Third Quarter 2013. Milestones Equity markets hit all-time high (again) U.S. government begins partial shutdown

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Presented by Ruth Matt 22 Free Street, Suite 201 Portland , ME 04101 (207)899-0531

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  1. Third Quarter 2013 Market Overview Presented by Ruth Matt22 Free Street, Suite 201 Portland, ME 04101 (207)899-0531

  2. Economic Summary: Third Quarter 2013 • Milestones • Equity markets hit all-time high (again) • U.S. government begins partial shutdown • BlackBerry agrees to be taken private in $4.7B deal • Merkel scores decisive victory in German election • Fed continues bond-buying program • Verizon’s $49B bond deal sets record in Vodafone acquisition • SEC approves advertising for hedge funds and private offerings • Europe agrees on further aid tranche for Greece • Housing recovery appears strong despite rise in rates • Detroit declares bankruptcy • Syria overshadows economic issues at G-20 meeting Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

  3. Economic Themes • Equity/fixed income • Housing • Credit and banking • Employment • Consumer behavior • Business and manufacturing activity Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

  4. Q3 2013: S&P 500 Index and Dow Jones Industrial Average Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

  5. Q3 2013: Equity Returns by Style Source: Commonwealth Asset Management/Morningstar Direct Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

  6. Q3 2013: Fixed Income Returns by Style Source: Commonwealth Asset Management/Morningstar Direct Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

  7. Fixed Income

  8. Treasury Yields Yield up = Price down

  9. Net Flows into Bank Loan Funds Source: Morningstar Direct/Haver/Commonwealth Investment Research

  10. Fixed Income Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

  11. Fixed Income continued Announcement Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

  12. Housing

  13. Housing: Prices and Supply

  14. Housing: Prices and Supply continued

  15. Credit and Banking

  16. Credit and Banking: TED Spread

  17. Credit and Banking: Inflation

  18. Employment

  19. Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Strong! Source: Commonwealth Asset Management/Bloomberg

  20. Unemployment Rate

  21. Marginally Attached Workers

  22. Business and Manufacturing

  23. ISM Manufacturing

  24. ISM Nonmanufacturing Strong move!

  25. Capacity Utilization

  26. Economic Expansion

  27. Conclusions • Job growth was strong in Q3; unemployment fell to 7.3 percent. • Inflation is not a large concern, for now. • ISM indices hit post-recession highs in some cases. • Treasury rates moved aggressively higher across the curve, prompting bond outflows. • Dividend sectors, especially utilities, saw pricing pressure as rates moved higher. • The housing recovery is still progressing, but pricing may slow in the near term. • GDP growth is expected to continue but could see a headwind as the government shutdown ripples through the economy.

  28. Looking Forward . . . • Key themes to monitor • Nomination of Yellen as new Fed Chairman • Impact of government shutdown on broader economy • Earnings season for Q3 (beat or miss estimates?) • Will the rise in mortgage rates curb the housing recovery? • Europe and economic outcome • Ongoing debt ceiling debate • Emerging markets manufacturing in Q3 • Fed “tapering” and direction of Treasury rates

  29. Disclosure Investing involves risks, including loss of principal amount invested due to market fluctuations. All indices are unmanaged, and investors cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The Bank of America Merrill Lynch US Corporate Index tracks the performance of U.S. dollar-denominated investment-grade corporate debt publicly issued in the U.S. domestic market. The Merrill Lynch Municipal Master Index tracks the performance of U.S. dollar-denominated investment-grade tax-exempt debt publicly issued by U.S. states and territories, and their political subdivisions, in the U.S. domestic market. The Bank of America/Merrill Lynch High Yield Master II Index tracks the performance of U.S. dollar-denominated below-investment-grade corporate debt publicly issued in the U.S. domestic market. International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability. The commodities industries can be significantly affected by commodity prices, world events, import controls, worldwide competition, government regulations, and economic conditions. Treasury bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest, and, if held to maturity, they offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. U.S. Treasury bills do not eliminate market risk. Municipal bonds are federally tax-free but may be subject to state and local taxes, and interest income may be subject to federal alternative minimum tax (AMT). The purchase of bonds is subject to availability and market conditions. There is an inverse relationship between the price of bonds and the yield: when price goes up, yield goes down, and vice versa. Market risk is a consideration if sold or redeemed prior to maturity. Some bonds have call features that may affect income. Investments in floating-rate securities are subject to significant credit, interest rate, valuation, liquidity, and inflation risk. Floating-rate securities tend to attract investors during periods when interest rates are rising but may be less attractive when interest rates are falling. Floating-rate securities have a variable interest rate that will go up and down, or ‘float,’ to reflect changes in current market rates.

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