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2014 LTSA Update October 21, 2014

2014 LTSA Update October 21, 2014. Outline. LTSA update Case summary Reliability analysis results Next steps. LTSA Update. Four scenarios were shortlisted for transmission analysis based on stakeholder feedback Current Trends (CT) High Economic Growth (HEG) Stringent Environmental (SE)

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2014 LTSA Update October 21, 2014

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  1. 2014 LTSA Update October 21, 2014

  2. Outline • LTSA update • Case summary • Reliability analysis results • Next steps

  3. LTSA Update • Four scenarios were shortlisted for transmission analysis based on stakeholder feedback • Current Trends (CT) • High Economic Growth (HEG) • Stringent Environmental (SE) • Global Recession (GR) • Reliability cases were prepared per the LTSA scope • Final 2013 RTP case for the year 2018 was used as a start case • 90th percentile load forecast by weather zone was used for the cases • Additional generation was added based on the outcome of generation expansion analysis • Generation siting methodology was used to keep siting consistent across scenarios

  4. Case Summary: 2029 Reliability Case (summer peak) *Total generation available for reliability analysis under summer peak condition per the LTSA scope

  5. Impact of solar adds • The LTSA scenario assumptions lead to significant solar additions in the next decade • Amount of utility solar increases from 150 MW to about 10,000 MW • Solar output is known to be co-incident with the demand

  6. Impact of solar adds on the load shape

  7. Reliability Analysis Summary (Preliminary Results)

  8. Reliability Analysis Summary (Preliminary Results)

  9. Reliability Analysis Summary (Preliminary Results)

  10. Next steps • Complete N-1, G-1 + N-1 and X-1 + N-1 reliability analysis • Compile list of reliability projects for different scenarios • Complete economic analysis • Summarize results in the 2014 LTSA

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