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2014 LTSA Load Distribution Methodology June 17, 2014

2014 LTSA Load Distribution Methodology June 17, 2014. Outline. Purpose Background Current Trends Other scenarios Next steps. Purpose. To reflect differences in how load is distributed from scenario to scenario Need to project trends into future years

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2014 LTSA Load Distribution Methodology June 17, 2014

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  1. 2014 LTSA Load Distribution Methodology June 17, 2014

  2. Outline • Purpose • Background • Current Trends • Other scenarios • Next steps

  3. Purpose • To reflect differences in how load is distributed from scenario to scenario • Need to project trends into future years • Presentation by the Texas State Demographer at LTSTF Scenario Workshop #1 stated that higher growth rates are expected along the I-35 corridor, especially in the “ring counties”

  4. Projected percent population change 2010-2030

  5. Background • Scenario-specific load forecasts are provided by weather zone • The load growth for counties within their respective weather zones are expected to vary between scenarios • This variation can be modeled by using scenario-specific county level growth rates to adjust distribution factors

  6. Current Trends • County load growth in the SSWG DSB cases was used as means to capture load growth in current trends • Compound annual growth rate (CAGR) values were calculated for each county using the 2015 and 2020 SSWG DSB cases posted on March 3, 2014 • The loads from the final 2018 case from the 2013 RTP were grown to 2024 and 2029 levels using county CAGR values • Distribution factors were calculated for 2024 and 2029 by normalizing each load value relative to the total load for its weather zone • Self-served loads were not changed

  7. Other scenarios • High economic growth: • Accelerated growth rates • Increased activity in dry gas basins • Stringent environmental: • Growth rates stay close to current trends • Dampened growth in oil and gas activity • County specific load distribution can be modeled by adjusting CAGR values for specific counties • Oil and gas counties can be identified based on oil and gas well count growth rates

  8. Next steps • Update distribution factors to be used for Current Trends, Stringent Environmental, and High Economic Growth scenarios • Update distribution factors to be used in UPLAN for generation siting • Update distribution factors to be used in PowerWorld for reliability analysis

  9. Questions

  10. Appendix: Input load assumptions excerpt from scenarios

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