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Fabby Tumiwa, IESR

Indonesia Climate Change Mitigation Strategy and ITS IMPLICATION ON Energy SECTOR DEVELOPMENT EASS Meeting, Beijing, 23-24 SEPT 2010. Fabby Tumiwa, IESR . Ambitious Target.

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Fabby Tumiwa, IESR

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  1. Indonesia Climate Change Mitigation Strategy and ITS IMPLICATION ON Energy SECTOR DEVELOPMENTEASS Meeting, Beijing, 23-24 SEPT 2010 Fabby Tumiwa, IESR

  2. Ambitious Target • At G20 Summit in Pittsburg (2009), Indonesia President committed to a 26% - 41% emission reduction target by 2020 making Indonesia the first large developing country to do so. • Similar statement made in Copenhagen COP-15, followed by submitting official pledge to UNFCCC in February 2010 to support Copenhagen Accord. • Government agencies prepared plan, intervention scenarios to achieve the reductions target, and domestic policies to support implementation of the plan.

  3. Achieving 26-41% reductions from 2020 baseline would require reducing annual emissions by 0.6-1 GtCO2e • In short term, largest emission reduction is expected to come from peat and forestry sector.

  4. National Policy Development on CC • Indonesia Climate Change Strategy Road-map (ICCSR, 2010) • Presidential Decree on National Action Plan for GHGs Reduction (upcoming by October/November 2010??) • Presidential Decree on REDD (upcoming Oct/Nov 2010??)

  5. Implication to Power Sector Development and Strategy • Modest target and lack of attention for GHGs emission reduction from power sector. • Emission reduction target 30 Mton CO2 by 2020 • Energy efficiency: demand side management • Increasing utilization of renewable energy • Geothermal: 7000 MW (by 2020) • Micro and small hydro • Others: solar PVs, wind power • Fuel switching: diesel oil to bio-fuel

  6. Energy Mix Scenario for Power Generation Source: PLN’s Power Supply Development Plan (2009-2019)

  7. Fossil fuel will still dominates 80-85% of power generation for the next decade. • Coal will dominates power generation (~60% of total generating capacity) • Currently only 15% of national production of coal are being used for power generation, 30% – 40% in 2020. • Dominate by pulverized coal PP, some CCTs fleet will come online after 2014/2015.

  8. Nuclear power has not yet consider as GHGs mitigation measures • Development are slow, controversial, and not gain full support from current administration, public opposition is still high. • NPP unlikely to be operated in Indonesia before 2025 • Up to 2015 to determine and study new sites (outside Java) • NPP proponent is trying to win people’s support • Most optimistic scenario: NPP construction will start in 2018

  9. Result of LEAP model (2008) Sustainable Electricity Scenario for Indonesia (IESR, 2008)

  10. Introduction • Model developed in 2007-2008, will be updated and improved in 2011 • Business as usual: • Electricity development plan (2006-2025) • Additional coal-fired power plant: 10 GW (2007-2012) • NPP: 4 GW in 2025 (optimistic scenario) • Energy efficiency and conservation (15% of electricity consumption) can replace demand for NPP development.

  11. Model Structure • Demand structure: • Energy demand: electricity & non-electricity • Electricity demand is categorized by system (islands-based system) • Non-electricity demand is bundled, non-specific

  12. Total Energy Demand (2005-2025)

  13. Projection of Electricity Consumption (2005-2025)

  14. Supply structure: • Power Plant • Power Transmission (island based-grid/interconnection) • Oil refineries • LPG and LNG refineries • Oil, Gas, and Coal mines • Ethanol processing plants • Biodiesel plants

  15. Energy Input for Power Generation in Java-Bali system

  16. Recent development • Diesel oil consumption is still high (22% of total electricity generated). • 2nd stage of Electricity crash program (2009-2014): 40% coal, 60% renewables (geothermal, hydro) • Declining natural gas supply for power plant in the last 2 years, plan to build LNG liquefaction plant near Jakarta by 2012/2013. • Poor geothermal development, target to add 6.5 GW up to 2020 is hardly to meet. • Uncertainty in nuclear development. • Failure of biofuels development program • Development of new technology: e.g: Coal Bed Methane (CBM) • Impact of GHGs various mitigation measures, including CCTs.

  17. INSTITUTE FOR ESSENTIAL SERVICES REFORM JAKARTA, INDONESIA www.iesr-indonesia.org FABBY TUMIWA fabby@iesr-indonesia.org

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