investigating hider theory
Download
Skip this Video
Download Presentation
Investigating “Hider” Theory

Loading in 2 Seconds...

play fullscreen
1 / 19

Investigating “Hider” Theory - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 134 Views
  • Uploaded on

Investigating “Hider” Theory. New Horizons in Search Theory 4 th Workshop. Presentations. Group 1: Hiding Contraband (WMD) Steve Basile, Jeff Cares, Bill Glenney, Tim Mertens, Frank Tito

loader
I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.
capcha
Download Presentation

PowerPoint Slideshow about 'Investigating “Hider” Theory' - karif


An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Presentation Transcript
investigating hider theory

Investigating “Hider” Theory

New Horizons in Search Theory4th Workshop

presentations
Presentations
  • Group 1: Hiding Contraband (WMD)Steve Basile, Jeff Cares, Bill Glenney, Tim Mertens, Frank Tito
  • Group 2: ASW and Other Military ExamplesMichelle Jarvais, David Jarvis, Rich Katz, Brian McCue, Bill Pruitt
group 1 hiding contraband wmd
Group 1: Hiding Contraband (WMD)

Steve Basile, Jeff Cares, Bill Glenney, Tim Mertens, Frank Tito

operational context
General Competitive Context

Hider, Searcher with active strategies

Not necessarily mirror image strategies

Forces, Elements Involved (all have some signature)

Organization

Policy makers, financiers, scientists, technicians, deliverers, suppliers

Communications, contracts, policies, links, social networks, trust, fear, etc.

Resources

Could be outwardly benign, particularly in isolation

e.g., site, money, raw materials, recipe, etc.

Could be virtual, distributed

Process

Arrangement of resources and organization to produce contraband

Contraband

End product of a process

Environmental Considerations

Size of the thing and the area in which it is hidden

Background (ambient noise in the environment)

Backyard (familiarity with background)

Neutral or unrelated activity (affects positively or negatively)

Clutter, evasion, deception, decoy, camouflage

Operational Context

GROUP 1: Hiding Contraband

operational problem
Hide what?

Organization, resources, process or contraband

Specifically undeclared WMD

Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear, Explosive

Stockpile volume equivalent to a 3-car garage

Hide where?

Within a country

With exceptions, e.g., resources, people, money can go global

Hide why?

Because it is illegal

Prevent sanctions

Protect sovereignty

Surprise

Obscure scale

Ambiguity about intentions, capability, size of arsenal, readiness

Protect stockpile

For later use, survivability, prevent theft, sale value, deterrent value

Affect world/regional/local opinion

Sympathy for regime if WMD remains hidden

Affect political events (e.g., 2004 US election)

Support larger political strategy

Hide when?

For months or years

Operational Problem

GROUP 1: Hiding Contraband

major process elements
Major Process Elements
  • What are the major factors that impact hider success?
  • What are the relationships between these major factors?
  • Are any of these substantially greater than the others?

GROUP 1: Hiding Contraband

process diagram
Process Diagram

ORGANIZATION

PROCESS

CONTRABAND

RESOURCES

GROUP 1: Hiding Contraband

network strategy
Network Strategy

400

300

Number of Buttons Connected

200

100

0

0

0.5

0.6

Kauffman, At Home in the Universe, p.57

Ratio of Buttons to Strings

insights and conclusions
Insights and Conclusions
  • Many of the parts are in plain sight
  • Links are often the things that are telling
    • Hider needs “invisible thread”
  • Search for contraband very like ASW
    • Hider relies on big area/small stockpile
  • Hider relies on knowledge or searcher’s capabilities, location
  • High combinatoric space to hide in
    • Network of org + resources

GROUP 1: Hiding Contraband

group 2 asw and other military examples
Group 2: ASW and Other Military Examples

Michelle Jarvais, David Jarvis, Rich Katz, Brian McCue, Bill Pruitt

potential operational scenarios
Potential Operational Scenarios
  • Orange ASUW on Blue HVU (Carrier)
    • Transiting
    • Flights Operations
  • “Dipping Game”
  • SOF Scenario – Minimize hiding discontinuities (hiders coming from a hider)
  • Submarine vs. submarine example
    • Searcher who is also a hider
    • Differences in hiding between nuclear, diesel and AIP subs
  • “The Great Scud Hide”
    • Any type of mobile missile launchers (TELs, Soviet nuclear trucks)
  • Mine fields
  • SSBN Example
    • Our mission is to hide

GROUP 2: ASW & Military Examples

operational context submarine attack on carrier
Operational Context:Submarine Attack on Carrier
  • General competitive context
    • Orange trying to sink Blue Carrier in one of two scenarios, transiting to an operational area and carrier flight operations in a coastal area
  • Forces, elements involved
    • Orange
      • Subs
      • OIA- Other Information Assets (aircraft to cue subs, etc.)
    • Blue
      • Carrier (PRIMARY HIDER) - a big ship in a bigger ocean
      • Subs
      • Helicopters
      • Other Information Assets (surface escorts, air, satellites, etc.)
  • Environmental considerations
    • Water depth, distance from coastline, conditions of the body of water (salinity, temperature, bottom type, etc.)

GROUP 2: ASW & Military Examples

operational context submarine attack on carrier13
Operational Context: Submarine Attack on Carrier

GROUP 2: ASW & Military Examples

operational context submarine attack on carrier14
Operational Context:Submarine Attack on Carrier
  • Describe the specific Hider application
    • Hide what?
      • The PRIMARY HIDER is the Blue Carrier
      • SECONDARY HIDERS include the Orange Sub & Blue Sub
    • Hide where?
      • Transiting to the area of operations
      • Operating off the coast of a hostile country
    • Hide why?
      • To provide air operations
    • Hide when?
      • For duration of transit and of air operations—and return transit

GROUP 2: ASW & Military Examples

operational context submarine attack on carrier some pseudo facts
Operational Context:Submarine Attack on Carrier – Some Pseudo-Facts

P = 1 – e-2RVT/A

GROUP 2: ASW & Military Examples

operational context submarine attack on carrier some real math
Operational Context:Submarine Attack on Carrier – Some Real Math
  • Is his sub going to find my sub before my sub finds his carrier?
  • Some math: given three exponential processes w/ rates γ1 , γ2, and γ3, the probability that event i has happens first is:
  • The γ’s are the various 2RVT/A’s.

GROUP 2: ASW & Military Examples

major process elements17
Major Process Elements
  • Hide How?
    • What are the major factors that impact hider success?
      • Standoff distance from the shore, farther out you are the better you can hide
      • Predictability of carrier movement, both during transit and during flights operations (like to turn into the wind)
    • What are the relationships between these major factors?
    • Are any of these substantially greater than the others?

GROUP 2: ASW & Military Examples

insights and conclusions18
Insights and Conclusions
  • The importance of the duality of the searcher/hider
    • The notion of split personality
    • Each has its own behavior
    • However, there are links between the searcher/hider aspects of the personality
  • There is a network of interactions searchers and hiders
  • Local vs. global behavior
    • Change of behavior based on local interactions
  • What would be the applicability of agent-based models to Hider theory?

GROUP 2: ASW & Military Examples

ad