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Mechanical engineering in technology-driven societies

Mechanical engineering in technology-driven societies. Prof. Dr. - Ing . Thomas Bauernhansl September 11, 2019. source : hajegmbh.de. Digital Transformation. source : Fraunhofer IPA.

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Mechanical engineering in technology-driven societies

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  1. Mechanical engineering in technology-driven societies Prof. Dr.-Ing. Thomas Bauernhansl September 11, 2019 source: hajegmbh.de

  2. Digital Transformation

  3. source: Fraunhofer IPA The Development Stages of Digital TransformationNew technologiesleadtonewarchitectureson all levelsof Industrie 4.0 Autonomous Systems Cyber-PhysicalSystems 4 Autonomy MachineLearning Platforms Mechatronical Systems Operating System 3 Connectivity Industrie 4.0 5G/TSN Electromechanical Systems Digital Twin 2 Virtualization Digital Shadow 1 Digitization 1950 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Combination of classic technologies and artificial intelligence create autonomous, self-organizing systems(e.g. autonomous transport systems, autonomous robots,…) Digital modeling of processes(e.g. CAD/CAM, FEM, digital factory,…) Integration of all value creation processes via broadband telecommunication(e.g. industrial IoT, cloud computing,…) Digital imageof analog processes (e.g. NC technology, 2-D CAD, MRP/ERP,…) Core Technology Core Architecture

  4. Core Elements ofDigitalizationPossibilities through CPS in the B2C areaCase study: Tesla • Customers get easy access to the product so they can use platform services and pay for them with data or money. • User-friendly human-machine interfaces form the link between the cyber and physical worlds • »Updates over the Air« enable continuous function updates over the entire product lifecycle • Shift focus from product sales to revenue generation based on functionalities/services • Access to usage data enables a continuous innovation process • Functions are transfered from the hardware to the software! source: motor-talk.de

  5. Core Elements ofDigitalizationPossibilities through CPS in the B2B sectorCase study: Robot system • Operation of the physical robot in production - Provision of the required services via the cloud • Continuous updating of the services provided (e.g. gripping pattern on the robot), paid for by data or money • Lifecycle management of software services in heterogeneous infrastructure • Data processing directly at the source (»edge computing«) • Optimization of the robot function in the cloud parallel to the work assignment source: Fraunhofer IPA

  6. IIOT Platforms Increase MassivelyIT-backbone for new business models and ultra-efficient value-adding • With more than 450 providers, the market of IoT-platforms remains highly fragmented. • »In 2016 half of the IoT-platform providers generated a turnover of less than 1 Mio. USD.« • The top providers record a growth of more than 50 %. • Most platforms concentrate on industrial application areas (32 %). • With 17 deals in 2016 alone the M&A-activity has notably increased. • Compared to other branches the financing of startups play a rather minor role(2016: 330 Mio. USD). source: Cisco, 2014, IoT Analytics 2017

  7. CPS Operating Systems are the KeyExample VW: VW.OS as basis for digital business models • Own share of software development to be increased from 10 to at least 60 percent by 2025 • Own unit named »Car.Software« with 5000 digital experts will be built up • Software platform should consist of the operating system »vw.os« and the »Automotive Cloud (cooperation with Microsoft) and the Industrial Cloud (cooperation with Amazon). • By 2025, all of the group's new models are to run on this platform. THE NEW CAR.SOFTWARE-UNIT Volkswagen develops software in five central units Up to 70 control units with operating software from 200 different suppliers are currently integrated in Volkswagen brand vehicles. All this is to be simplified by a uniform operating system (vw.os) with the same basic functions for all brands. source: heise online

  8. Horizontal (supply chain) and Vertical (factory) Integration as the Key to CompetitivenessExample VW: VW Industrial Cloud as automotive standard? • All 122 Volkswagen plants are to be networked at machine level with the help of Amazon (cloud) and Siemens (platform). • This will form the technical basis for productivity gains. • In the long term, all 1500 suppliers and partner companies with over 30,000 locations will be integrated into the »Industry Cloud«. • The platform will also be accessible to other carmakers at a later date. • By 2025, productivity in the entire production network – with the exception of China – is to increase by 30 percent. spurce: automobilwoche.de, heise online

  9. Challenge to the Strategy Process using the Example of the Automotive Industry source: Accenture

  10. Platform Companies Dominate WorldwideDevelopment ofmarketcapitalisation* linear businessmodel platformmodel *market capitalization as of 1.10 in each case source: Accenture „Top500 – Studie Götter der Dämmerung in der deutschen Wirtschaft“

  11. source: Fraunhofer IPA The Development Stages of Digital TransformationNew technologiesleadtonewarchitectureson all levelsof Industrie 4.0 Autonomous Systems Cyber-PhysicalSystems 4 Autonomy MachineLearning Platforms Mechatronical Systems Operating System 3 Connectivity Industrie 4.0 5G/TSN Electromechanical Systems Digital Twin 2 Virtualization Digital Shadow 1 Digitization 1950 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Combination of classic technologies and artificial intelligence create autonomous, self-organizing systems(e.g. autonomous transport systems, autonomous robots,…) Digital modeling of processes(e.g. CAD/CAM, FEM, digital factory,…) Integration of all value creation processes via broadband telecommunication(e.g. industrial IoT, cloud computing,…) Digital imageof analog processes (e.g. NC technology, 2-D CAD, MRP/ERP,…) Core Technology Core Architecture

  12. Machine Learning Traditional Data Processing Traditional Data Processing Machine Learning Computer Input Program Output Data Output Program Problem: Writing a programisthebottleneck! Problem: Writing a programisthebottleneck! A. Samuel, 1959: »Machine Learning is the field of study that gives computer the ability to learn without being explicitly programmed.«  Learning fromexamples generalization Whenismachinelearningappropriate? Itisdifficult/impossibletomodelcause-effectrelationshipsortheyareevenunknown Optimizationbymeansofphysicalmodelsistoodemanding source: Fraunhofer IPA, Marco Huber

  13. DetectionofAnomalies: Damages on StructuredSurfaces Automatedidentificationofimpactpoints ExampleProcessintegration Self-learningexamination on 2D images Step 1: self-containedlearningof dominant backgroundstructures Step 2: statistical deviations are marked as error areas 100% examination in productioncycleof 1/10 seconds Customer Benefits • Fastinlineexaminationofsurfaces • No explicit descriptionoferrorsrequired source: Fraunhofer IPA

  14. Smart Operator AssistanceAssisting operators by providing the right information at the right time High-frequency acquisition of machine data Classificationengine »Station 1: Bufferempty in 1 min.« »Station 4: Workpieceispinched« 0110110 1010011 1011001… »Station 5: Falsepositionequipment« Assistance System Industrial application of the system: Prioritization of events *Evaluation of several Fraunhofer IPA production line optimization projects 2015-2018

  15. Bin Picking as Use Case for Industrie 4.0Cloud Picking Hand-Eye-Coordination with Robots (Google) • 14 robots learned simultaneously within ~800.000 pick attempts to grasp varied objects from a bin; a monocular camera is used • several robots exchange their experiences • also unknown objects are being picked, deviations of camera position are being compensated due to the robustness of the used algorithms source: https://i.ytimg.com/vi/H4V6NZLNu-c/hqdefault.jpg

  16. National Industrie 4.0 StrategiesThe race is on ... source: BMBF Studie Inbenzenhab

  17. Industry 4.0 ability in comparison... But the USA have the best prerequisites aboveaverage average belowaverage competitiveness country manufacturingsector ICT-sector innovative capacity education digital infrastructure Germany USA Japan China* *In the Education and Digital Infrastructure categories, dataforthe Shanghai, Hong Kong, Taipei and Macao regionshavebeenusedforsomeindicators. These regionsareexemplaryforChina'seconomicpowerhouses, whichperformaboveaverage in theseareas. The countryas a whole, on theotherhand, still lagssignificantlybehindits international competitors. Handelsblatt Research Institute source: HRI source: innoxperts.com/industrie-4-0-oder-0-4/

  18. Development of relevant ecosystemsICT and Finance on a high level in the US and China Within the TOP 50, both the USA and China have strengthened the banking and ICT sector over the past ten years. Germany USA China Banks Banks Banks Industry Industry Industry ICT ICT ICT source: Accenture

  19. R&D Investments and Future Expectations in ComparisonUS Digital companies lead the way, where are European players? R&D 2017 [Mio. €] Share appreciation since August 2008 source: Handelsblatt

  20. Fear of New Technologies Grows What is left for mankind? The computerrevolution Progress drivesun-employment You are fired!How computer and robots steal our work – and which jobs are safe even tomorrow. Spiegel Magazin Cover 1978 and 2016 source: Clap Club

  21. More than Half of Today‘s Jobs has an Automation Potential of at least 30 Percent source: McKinsey&Company: Jobs Lost, Jobs Gained: WorkforceTransitions in a Time of Automation, December 2017

  22. Biological Transformation

  23. »I thinkthebiggestinnovationsofthetwenty-first century will betheintersectionofbiologyandtechnology. A neweraisbeginning, just like the digital one [...].« (Steve Jobs, 2009)

  24. Sustainable Value Creation: an unfulfilled WishFulfilling material needs is the basis for prosperity and well-being • Up to 64 % of greenhouse gas emissions from transport and meat consumption alone • Population growth to up to 10.8 billion people in 2050 and 16.6 billion in 2100, respectively • Global consumer class to rise from 36% of world population (2010) to 53 % by 2025 • Previous strategies to create a sustainable economy have failed or are not having the desired effect. nutrition living health Material needs mobility consumption • Fair satisfaction of the (material) needs of future generations is not possible with today's production methods. source: Fraunhofer IPA

  25. Biology Finds its Way into Value CreationThree stages of biological transformation The biological transformation is a process of increasing use of materials, structures and principles of living nature in technology with the aim of sustainable value creation. Biological System Technical System Informationsystem biointelligent valuecreation interaction biointegratedvaluecreation integration bioinspiredvaluecreation inspiration source: Fraunhofer IPA

  26. Biointegrated Value CreationThe »Impossible Burger« source: http://gclfoodingredients.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/impossible-burger-1280x640.jpg

  27. Biointegrated Value CreationProduction of CAR-T cell therapy in the Fraunhofer IZI clean room source: Fraunhofer IZI

  28. Biointelligent Value CreationVerticalGardens Singapur source: http://www.rumblerum.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/PARKROYAL-Hotel-Singapore-4-997x525.jpg

  29. Biointelligent Value CreationVerticalFarming source: http://www.rumblerum.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/PARKROYAL-Hotel-Singapore-4-997x525.jpg

  30. Biointelligent Value Creation source: https://guestlist.net/uploads/articles/2018/01/92661.jpg

  31. The Costs of Sequencing a Human Genome Decrease significantly source: genome.gov/sequencingcostsdata/

  32. CRISPR/Cas Method Revolution in genome editing – the fast and cost-effective »gene scissors« • Universally applicable to all living cells • Genes can be specifically blocked, DNA building blocks can be exchanged or short sequences can be integrated into the DNA strand. • The basic mechanism – causing a double strand break and subsequent »natural« repair – is the same as with natural mutation. • Science declared the CRISPR method »Breakthrough of the Year 2015« DNA double-strand breaksallowgenomemodification Installation ofnewsequences geneinactivation Genome Editing source: Wikipedia / https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/CRISPR/Cas-Methode#/media/File:16_Hegasy_DNA_Rep_Wiki_D_CCBYSA.png

  33. Technology ConvergenceEnables Biointelligent Value Creation Anwendungsfelder Ersatz tierischer Produkte Geschlossene Marktkreisläufe Dezentrale, bedarfsgerechte Produktion personalisierter Güter Reduktion von Transportaufwand Effektive, personalisierte Gesundheitsversorgung Biointelligente Wertschöpfung

  34. Innovationssystem BiotechnologyComparison USA – Germany Quelle: ey.com/Publication/vwLUAssets/ey-biotechnologie-report-2018/%24FILE/ey-biotechnologie-report-2018.pdf

  35. USA vs. China

  36. Global Manufacturing Competitiveness IndexBattle between China and the US source: 2016 Global Manufacturing Competitiveness Index, 2016 Deloitte

  37. Economic Centres are shifting Production goes where consumption takes place Share of global GDP Share ofworldpopulation source: USDA ERS 2015; UN Population 2015 USDA ERS 2015; UN Population 2015

  38. R&D Expenditure and Number of Researchers in the Top 10Asia is on top Notes: Size ofbubblesindicate relative R&D spend. Note 2: For US, 2012 R&D spendand R&D as a percentageof GDP was thelatestavailabledata; ForIndia, only 2011 data was availablefor all thremetrics. source: 2016 Global Manufacturing Competitiveness Index, 2016 Deloitte

  39. Strategies at a Glance»America First« vs. »Made in China « • USA: »America First« • Introduction of punitive tariffs • Massive tax reform • RestrictionEnvironmental protection • Renegotiation of trade agreements • Focus on research • China: »World Power China« • Made in China 2025 • One Belt and One Road (New Silk Road) • Tariff and non-tariff trade barriers • Massive expansion of research

  40. Goals Made in China 2025From the workbench of the world to a global innovation leader • Targets: • Increasing innovation capability in the manufacturing industry • More intensive integration of information technologies into industry • Reinforcement of basic industrial skills • Improvement of brand and quality awareness of Chinese brands • Promotion of environmentally friendly production • Promoting technological breakthroughs in the ten key industries • Encouraging the restructuring of manufacturing sectors towards quality rather than mass production • Active development of service-oriented producers and service providers • Development of the manufacturing industry on an international level • Stages: • In 2025 China should meet the qualitative standards of a manufacturing power • 2035 China is said to have ranked in the midfield of manufacturing powers • In 2049, the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China, China is to be the world leader. source: Wikipedia; Accenture

  41. Key technologies China 2025With massive financial support from the state, Chinese companies are restructuring their value creation source: Ausblick auf die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung von China, 2017; Springer Link

  42. One Belt, One Road – New Silk RoadIn six economic corridors and in the maritime silk road more than 1 trillion US-Dollar are to be invested

  43. Facts about One Belt, One RoadParticipating states use Chinese money and Chinese construction companies to build infrastructure to secure Chinese trade relations • Development and expansion of intercontinental trade and infrastructure networks between the People's Republic and a total of 64 other countries in Africa, Asia and Europe. The initiative or overall project covers, among other things, around 62% of the world's population and around 35% of the world economy.* • Since 2013, 50 companies have already started 700 projects in the six »economic corridors«. • Two investment vehicles were established for the international structural projects: • The Silk Road Fund: a purely Chinese sovereign wealth fund with close proximity to the National Bank of China. Founded in 2014 and initially endowed with US-Dollar 40 billion. • AIIB: Asian Infra Structure Investment Bank, founded in 2014, 61 member states (in competition with the World Bank and the European Investment Bank). Germany also participates in AIIB. Balance sheet total still small at US-Dollar 18 billion. • In Myanmar, China is currently negotiating the construction of a large port on Manday Island for US-Dollar 2.5 billion. • In the south of Sri Lanka, a large port facility has just been completed for US-Dollar 1.5 billion. When Sri Lanka got into difficulties with servicing the loans, China waived repayment of the loan and secured the exclusive lease for 99 years. • In Pakistan, China has realized a major project for 62 billion US-Dollar. This includes a motorway and a railway line from the north-east of the country to the coast. In addition, a container port was built in Gwadar, for which China has a 40-year lease. • China has built a port in Djibouti (Somalia) and operates it as a military base. • In Africa, China has granted 130 billion US-Dollar in loans in the last 10 years. sources: Wikipedia

  44. The National Interests of the USA under TrumpAmerica First is based on so-called fundamental truths Americafirst The Four Vital National Interests of the USA in a Competitive World security Protect the American people, the fatherland and the American way of life. To protect the American people, the fatherland and the American way of life, etc. wealth Advance American prosperity. Revitalize the domestic economy, use your own energy dominance, demand fair trade relations, strengthen and secure your own innovation potential, etc. strength Preserve peace through strength. Strengthen American competitive advantages, renew military capabilities, develop economic diplomacy, use and protect information more effectively, etc. influence Expand American influence in the world. Encourage emerging partners to achieve better results in multilateral fora, uphold and disseminate American values, etc. Basis of the strategy – five fundamental truths 1. A nation without borders is not a nation. 2. A nation that does not protect prosperity at home cannot protect its interests outside. 3. A nation that is not prepared to win a war is not capable of preventing a war. 4. A nation that is not proud of its history cannot have confidence in its future. 5. A nation that is not sure of its values cannot muster the will to defend them. source: BDI

  45. Five Pillars of the Trade Policy Agenda of USAAmerica First – Protectionist Economic Liberalism • Supporting national security: trade policy must be consistent with the US national security strategy. It makes no sense to conclude trade agreements, strengthen opponents or weaken the US. • Strengthening the US economy:Tax Cut and Jobs Act (TCJA) is considered to be the most significant tax cut and reform law in more than 30 years. Since then, massive amounts of capital have been flowing back into the US. • Negotiating better trade agreements: the US administration wants to negotiate fairer and more balanced trade agreements to promote US jobs and prosperity. NAFTA was renegotiated, KORUS is renegotiated, TTIP is not implemented. • Aggressive enforcement of US trade law: rigorous application of national trade laws. Unfair trade practices will no longer be tolerated. Retaliatory measures, including tariffs and quotas, are used when a country denies the US rights under a free trade agreement or takes action that is unjustified, inappropriate and discriminatory. • Reform of the international trading system:The WTO is recognized as an important institution of the international trading system. However, it is assumed that the WTO does not function well. Among other things, it is criticised that the dispute settlement system exceeds its mandate and intervenes in areas that would actually be the responsibility of WTO members. The WTO is also accused of failing to conclude necessary agreements. sources: BDI

  46. A new world order emerges in the field of tension between two Superpowers enabled by the potentials of high tech source: Accenture

  47. “For the first time in the history of mankind, technological progress has overtaken social progress”. Ray Kurzweil

  48. Mechanical engineering in technology-driven societies Prof. Dr.-Ing. Thomas Bauernhansl September 11, 2019 source: hajegmbh.de

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