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Population Size Factors (7-2)

Population Size Factors (7-2). Jeff Roberge. Growth or Decline. Populations can shrink or grow Based on population change Pop change=(B+I)-(D+E) Measured annually When (B+I) larger, pop increases (D+E) larger, pop decreases

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Population Size Factors (7-2)

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  1. Population Size Factors (7-2) Jeff Roberge

  2. Growth or Decline • Populations can shrink or grow • Based on population change • Pop change=(B+I)-(D+E) • Measured annually • When (B+I) larger, pop increases • (D+E) larger, pop decreases • Population change= number of people added or taken from total population each year of a specified location (“Texas Population”)

  3. Growth or Decline • Demographers study populations • Use crude birth rate and • Crude death rate • Equal to number of deaths/births per 1000 people (“National Population”)

  4. Population • Population Graph • China most populous • Then India • And USA (Miller)

  5. Population Stabilization (“Below Replacement”) • Have fewer babies to control population • Fertility Rate-number of children born to a woman • Two types: Replacement-level fertility rate and total fertility rate (TFR) • Replacement= ave. number of children to replace the parents (usu. ~2.1) • Still does not control pop. because children will begin to have children, carries on growth for 50 more years • TFR= ave. number of children per woman

  6. Population Stabilization • TFR has been declining • 2007 Global ave=2.7 • Developed countries 1.6 (from 2.5 in 1950) • Developing countries 2.9 (from 6.5 in 1950) • Still above replacement-level of 2.1 • Therefore pop is not declining (Da Vanzo)

  7. Children as laborers Cost of children (education, Costs $250,000 to raise child to 18) Possibility to attain a pension Urban living vs. rural living Advancement opportunities for women Infant mortality rate-# of death per 1000 of children under 1 years old Age when married Ability to get abortions Birth control Religious beliefs Tradition and culture Factors Affecting Birth

  8. Factors Affecting Death • Life Expectancy-ave. number of years expected to live • Nutrition • Disease • Medical availability • Health care for pregnant women

  9. Population Change • Caused by: • birth rates • Fallen/risen death rates • Emigration/Immigration • Migration-moving of people into or out of a population • Seek better jobs, improvement • Conflicts, political strife, war, disasters, escape religious intoleration

  10. Case Studies • US Population • 76 mil (1900) to 302 mil (2007) • 1946-1964 is the baby boom (79 mil added to population) • Max TFR was 3.7, but now around replacement level • 2007 TFR was 2.05; 1.6 in China • USA still growing: 60% births, 40% immigration • Expected to be: • 419 mil by 2050 • 571 mil by 2100 (Miller)

  11. Case Studies • US immigration • Accepts twice the immigrants as all other countries added together • 40% of growth • 1820-1960- most immigrants from Europe • Now most from Latin America (53%), Asia (25%), Europe (14%) • Of Latin America: 67% are Mexicans (Vogel)

  12. Case Studies • For immigration • Need it to keep culture and standing as place of better horizons • Needed for jobs most others reject, boost economy

  13. Case Studies • Against- 60% of people against imm. • Mostly poor • Will help stop population growth • Better for ecological footprint with less people (“Immivasion”)

  14. Conclusion • Population grows through increased births/decreased deaths and higher immigration than emigration • Population is mostly decided by total fertility rate

  15. Works Cited “Below Replacement Fertility.” Singapore: The Last Ten Years. Aug. 2001. 4 Jan. 2009 <http://www.gov.sg/ndr/p62.htm>. Da Vanzo, Julie and David Adamson. “Russia’s Demographic ‘Crisis’: How Real is it?” July 1997. Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies. 4 Jan. 2009 <http://www.rand.org/pubs/issue_papers/IP162/index2.html>. “Immivasion.” 2003. 4 Jan. 2009 <http://www.immivasion.us/>. Miller, Jr., G. Tyler, and Scott Spoolman. Environmental Science: Problems, Concepts, and Solutions. 12th ed. US: Cengage Learning, 2008. “National Population Report.” Development Planning Unit of the British Virgin Islands. 21 Nov. 2005. 4 Jan. 2009 <http://www.dpu.gov.vg/AboutOurCountry/NationalPopRepICPD/Images/4.2.4.gif>. “Texas Population Change 1900-2000.” 11 July 2005. Texas Department of State Health Services. 4 Jan. 2009 <http://www.dshs.state.tx.us/chs/gis/PopulationChangeMap.shtm>. Vogel, Richard D. “Mexican and Central American Labor: The Crux of the Immigration Issue in the U.S.” 20 June 2006. 4 Jan. 2009 <http://mrzine.monthlyreview.org/vogel200606.html>.

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