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EUFASOM – Inputs, Outputs, Linkage Options

EUFASOM – Inputs, Outputs, Linkage Options. CCTAME – Kick-Off Meeting Uwe A. Schneider Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University Contributions from

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EUFASOM – Inputs, Outputs, Linkage Options

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  1. EUFASOM – Inputs, Outputs, Linkage Options CCTAME – Kick-Off Meeting Uwe A. Schneider Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University Contributions from Contributors: E. Schmid, O. Franklin, C.I. Ramos, C. Schleupner, K. Jantke, R. Skalsky, J. Balkovic, P. Havlik, I. Huck, A. Moseyev, A.M.I. Kallio, M. Obersteiner, S. de Cara, B. McCarl, S. Fritz

  2. Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model - FASOM • Partial Equilibrium, Bottom-Up Model • Maximizes sum of consumer and producer surplus • Constrained by resource endowments, technologies, policies • Spatially explicit, discrete dynamic • Integrates environmental effects • Programmed in GAMS

  3. Land use competition

  4. FASOM History • US (1993) • EU (2004) • Global (2006)

  5. FASOM Structure Limits Limits Resources Land Use Technologies Products Markets Inputs Demand Functions, Trade Processing Technologies Environmental Impacts Supply Functions Limits

  6. Scientific Questions • Mitigation Potential of Climate Policies? • Land Management Adaptation? • Commodity Market Impacts? • Environmental Side Effects? • Social Side Effects?

  7. Challenges • Heterogeneity (Resources, Technologies) • Complexity (Mitigation Options, Markets, Externalities, Policies) • Global Scope

  8. FASOM - Spatial Resolution of Input Data • Political regions • Ownership (forests) • Farm types • Farm size • Soil texture • Stone content • Altitude levels • Slopes • Soil state • Many crop and tree species • Tillage, planting irrigation, fertilization harvest regime

  9. Homogeneous Response Units • Altitude: • < 300 m • 300-600 m • 600-1100 m • >1100 m • Slope Class: • 0-3% • 3-6% • 6-10% • 10-15% • … DE11 DE12 • Texture: • Coarse • Medium • Medium-fine • Fine • Very fine DE14 • Soil Depth: • shallow • medium • deep DE13 • Stoniness: • Low content • Medium content • High content

  10. EUFASOM Dynamics • 5 (to 20) year time steps • State of forests (and soil organic matter) • Technical progress • Demand & industry growth • Resource and global change • Policy scenarios

  11. EUFASOM – Input Data • Resource Data • Technological Data • Market & Policy Data

  12. EUFASOM Data FOREST_DATA(PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTATE,SPECIES,FARM,AGE,ALLTECH,ALLITEM) PEREN_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTATE,SPECIES,FARM,AGE,ALLTECH,ALLITEM) CROP_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTATE,SPECIES,FARM,ALLTECH,ALLITEM) ECO_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTATE,ALLTECH,ALLITEM) LIVE_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,ANIMAL,ALLTECH,ALLITEM) FEED_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,PRODUCT,ALLTECH,ALLITEM) PROCESS_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,ALLTECH,ALLITEM) PRODUCT_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,PRODUCT,ALLITEM) MARKET_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,ALLITEM,SDTYPE,SDITEM) TRADE_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,REGION,PRODUCT,ALLITEM) RESOURCE_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,ALLRESOURCE,SDITEM) STOCK_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,PRODUCT,ALLITEM) LUC_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SPECIES,ALLCHANGE,ALLITEM)

  13. Forest Management Data Czec.2040_45.Spruce.200-205.NoThin.SWSawLogs 613.3046 Czec.2040_45.Spruce.200-205.NoThin.SWPulpLogs 32.2792 Czec.2040_45.Spruce.200-205.NoThin.AgeValue 165.5000 Czec.2040_45.Spruce.200-205.NoThin.Area 2459.4700 Czec.2040_45.Spruce.200-205.NoThin.Carbon 183.1328 Czec.2040_45.Spruce.200-205.NoThin.TreeNumber 146.4092 Czec.2040_45.Spruce.200-205.NoThin.TotalBiomass 366.2655 Czec.2040_45.Spruce.200-205.NoThin.StemBiomass 245.3218 Czec.2040_45.Spruce.200-205.NoThin.BranchBiomass 62.8024 Czec.2040_45.Spruce.200-205.NoThin.DeadWoodmass 37.5675 Czec.2040_45.Spruce.200-205.NoThin.DecompRate 0.0440 Czec.2040_45.Spruce.200-205.NoThin.FinalHarvBiomass 245.3218 Czec.2040_45.Spruce.200-205.NoThin.MeanTreeHarvBM 1.7540 Czec.2040_45.Spruce.200-205.NoThin.HarvestLabour 24.4956 Czec.2040_45.Spruce.200-205.NoThin.HarvestCost 2598.5695 Czec.2040_45.Spruce.200-205.NoThin.HarvestDiesel 1123.2615

  14. Crop Management Data FRAN.LT300.Crop.MDHG.Corn.RfCvSt.Corn 9.4582 FRAN.LT300.Crop.MDHG.Corn.RfCvSt.Land 2959.6516 FRAN.LT300.Crop.MDHG.Corn.RfCvSt.Cost 559.7052 FRAN.LT300.Crop.MDHG.Corn.RfCvSt.FarmLabour 61.6533 FRAN.LT300.Crop.MDHG.Corn.RfCvSt.HiredLabour 35.7446 FRAN.LT300.Crop.MDHG.Corn.RfCvSt.Fertilizer 191.4397 FRAN.LT300.Crop.MDHG.Corn.RfCvSt.Pesticides 110.2057 FRAN.LT300.Crop.MDHG.Corn.RfCvSt.Seed 121.9582 FRAN.LT300.Crop.MDHG.Corn.RfCvSt.Fuel 51.5004 FRAN.LT300.Crop.MDHG.Corn.RfCvSt.Rent 127.1415 FRAN.LT300.Crop.MDHG.Corn.RfCvSt.Wage 7.5052

  15. EUFASOM – Output Data • Resource Usage • Land Use Distribution • Market Prices, Trade

  16. EUFASOM Equations OBJECTIVE_EQU RESOURCEBAL_EQU (PERIOD,REGION,RESOURCE) RESOURCEMAX_EQU (PERIOD,REGION,RESOURCE) LUC_EQU (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SPECIES,CHANGE) LUCLIMIT_EQU (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SPECIES,CHANGE) SOILSTATE_EQU (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTATE) FORINVENT_EQU (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTATE,SPECIES,OWNER,AGE,FORTECH) STOCK_EQU (PERIOD,REGION,STOCK) EMIT_EQU (PERIOD,REGION,SUBSTANCE) PRODUCTBAL_EQU (PERIOD,REGION,PRODUCT) MINFEED_EQU (PERIOD,REGION,ANIMAL,NUTRIENT) MAXFEED_EQU (PERIOD,REGION,ANIMAL,NUTRIENT)

  17. EUFASOM Variables FOREST_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTATE,SPECIES,OWNER,AGE,FORTECH) PEREN_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTATE,SPECIES,FARM,AGE,CROPTECH) CROP_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTATE,SPECIES,FARM,CROPTECH) ECO_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTATE,ECOTECH) RESOURCE_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,RESOURCE) LUC_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SPECIES,CHANGE) EMIT_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,SUBSTANCE) LIVE_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,ANIMAL,LIVETECH) FEED_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,ANIMAL,PRODUCT,FEEDTECH) PROCESS_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,PROCTECH) DEMAND_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,PRODUCT) SUPPLY_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,PRODUCT) TRADE_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,REGION,PRODUCT)

  18. I European Agricultural Sector Results

  19. 2010 EU Bioenergy Targets • 21% Renewable Electricity ≈ 610 thousand GWh ≈ 300 million wet tons of biomass • 5.75% Bio-Fuels

  20. 0 25 50 75 100 Biomass Crop Share for 300 Mt Target

  21. Climate Mitigationvs. BiodiversityProtection

  22. 2010 EU Biodiversity Targets • 2001: European Council committed to ‘halt the decline of biodiversity by 2010’ in Europe • 2002: EU joined about 130 countries in agreeing ‘to significantly reduce the rate of biodiversity loss by 2010‘ worldwide BUT • Biodiversity loss still accelerating • Reservation often ad hoc and uncoordinated • 2010 only three years away

  23. Habitat Needs Simulations with the independent 69 species based habitat module of EUFASOM show that 10, 20, 30, 40 viable populations for each species require 22, 35, 42, and 61 million hectares, respectively, in specific locations

  24. 0 25 50 75 100 Wetland Area Share for a 40 Mha Target

  25. 0 25 50 75 100 Biomass Crop Share for 300 Mt Target

  26. EU25 Bioenergy Potentials 600 Wetland Requirement = 40 Mha 500 400 Marginal Biomass Costs in Euro/ton 300 30 Mha 200 10 Mha 100 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 European Biomass Production in million wet tons

  27. Wetland Downscaling Source: Schleupner and Schneider (2008), A cost-efficient spatial wetland site-selection model for European biotope restoration, http://www.fnu.zmaw.de/

  28. Link to other models • Climate Models • Indirect link • Geographic Assessments • upscaling • downscaling • Biophysical Models • Environmental impacts • Agro-Economic Models • Consistency between farm level and sector level models • Full Economy Models • Exogenous drivers • Response functions

  29. II US Agricultural Sector Results Mainly based on McCarl and Schneider (2001). Greenhouse Gas Mitigation in U.S.Agriculture and Forestry. SCIENCE 294:2481-2481.

  30. US Agricultural Mitigation 500 450 400 350 Technical Potential Competitive Economic Potential 300 Carbon price (Euro/tce) 250 200 150 100 50 0 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 Greenhouse Gas Emission Mitigation (mmtce)

  31. US Mitigation Strategy Mix 500 Afforestation Sink 400 Tillage Carbon Sink 300 Carbon price ($/tce) CH4 N2O Decrease 200 Bioenergy Emission Offsets 100 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Emission reduction (mmtce)

  32. US Tillage Carbon Sink 500 400 Economic Potential 300 Carbon price ($/tce) Competitive Economic Potential 200 Technical Potential 100 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 Soil carbon sequestration (mmtce)

  33. US Afforestation Sink 500 400 Economic Potential Competitive Economic Potential 300 Carbon price ($/tce) 200 Technical Potential 100 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Emission reduction (mmtce)

  34. US Bioenergy Emission Offsets 500 Economic Potential 400 Competitive Economic Potential 300 Carbon price ($/tce) 200 Technical Potential 100 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Emission reduction (mmtce)

  35. US Crop Management Impacts 115 110 Irrigation 105 Intensity (Base = 100%) 100 95 Tillage 90 85 Fertilization 80 75 0 100 200 300 400 500 Carbon equivalent price ($/mtce)

  36. US Agricultural Markets 220 200 Crop prices 180 160 140 Livestock prices Fisher index 120 Livestock production 100 80 60 Crop production Crop exports 40 20 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Carbon price ($/tce)

  37. US Welfare Changes 8 6 4 Gross Producer Surplus 2 Net Producer Surplus 0 Billion $ -2 Emission Payments -4 -6 ConsumerSurplus -8 -10 0 20 40 60 80 100 Carbon price ($/tce)

  38. US Environmental Co-Effects 100 N Subsurface Flow 90 80 N Percolation Pollution (%/acre) 70 Soil Erosion 60 50 P Loss 40 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Carbon price ($/tce)

  39. Emission Leakage 160 Non-Annex I crop net exports for agricultural GHG mitigation policy in: 150 140 Fisher’s Ideal Index 130 USA Only 120 Annex I Countries 110 100 All Countries 90 0 20 40 60 80 100 Carbon price ($/tce)

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