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Agenda for this Evening

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Agenda for this Evening

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  1. THERE ARE NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, AS TO ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, OR RESULTS OBTAINED FROM ANY INFORMATION DISCUSSED DURING HAWKTRADE MEETINGS.  Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investment returns and principal value will fluctuate, so that investors' shares, when sold, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Investing in any financial instruments does not guarantee that an investor will make money, avoid losing capital, or indicate that the investment is risk-free. There are no absolute guarantees in investing. HAWKTRADE and its members do not bear any responsibility for losses or gains made by members trading on their personal accounts based on analysis from HAWKTRADE meetings.

  2. Agenda for this Evening • Economic Data • Europe Update • Health Care Decision • Offshore Drilling • Market Direction

  3. Economic Data

  4. March Jobs Report: 120,000 jobs created, lower than 200,000 estimateUnemployment Rate dropped down to 8.2%

  5. Downward Trend on Weekly Jobless Claims is a Very Good Sign for the U.S. Economy

  6. Airtime: Fri. April. 6 2012 | 8:30 AM ET March Jobs Report

  7. Europe Update: It’s Not Over Yet

  8. Spain on Watch • Spain will likely need a bailout in the future (EU’s 4th largest economy) • Not doing much debt restructuring • 2012, very bad year for Spain • Estimated 3% contraction in GDP this year (recession) • Large contraction in 2013 also likely

  9. EU Elections • Greek and French Elections in April • Austerity done by Greek Gov’t to get bailed out, highly unpopular among socialist public • Could cause market volatility

  10. Health Care Decision

  11. Affordable Care Act - 2010 • Almost a decade to fully implement • Recently brought to Supreme Court • Constitutionality of requiring health insurance • Can the law stand with this aspect • Decision will be in June/July • Affect many people and business

  12. Obamacare - Winners • Health Insurers – UNH, WLP, AET • Millions of new customers required by law • Drug/Biotech Companies – TEVA, PFE • More potential users and brand name protection • Medical Researchers - ABT • Major funding from new law

  13. Obamacare - Losers • Hospitals – DYII, HMA • Medicare and default reimbursement cuts • Radiologists - RDNT • Results based compensation now • Tanning Salons • 10% excise tax

  14. Offshore Drilling

  15. Lots of Opportunities in Off-Shore Drilling • Easy oil has been found • In future, off-shore drilling demand will increase • Great for oil services and off-shore drillers

  16. Off-Shore Drilling Forecast

  17. Brazil: Largest Oil Find in 30 Years • Currently, largest is Tupi’s 8 billion barrel • Libra - estimated around 15 billion barrels of oil • If correct, doubles Brazil’s known oil reserves • Varies from 3.7-15B barrels, most likely 7.9 – National Petroleum Agency • Outgoing Brazilian President: Oil revenues used to eradicate poverty and invest in education/technology

  18. Petrobras (PBR) • May invest about $400 billion through 2020 to develop crude discoveries • In September 2011, raised $70 billion to develop new fields – world’s largest public share offering • Developing Tupi field and may take minimum stake of 30% in Libra

  19. Transocean - RIG Bulls Bears Macondo-related expenses up to more than $3B Ongoing tax disputes in US, Brazil, and Norway Risks ceding share to competition with more active under construction programs for rigs • Deepwater market is positioned to expand • Deepwater fleet is much larger than next competitor • Net asset value of fleet is $19.6B or $56/share

  20. Diamond Offshore Drilling, Inc. - DO Bulls Bears Has a smaller fleet and less experience with ultra-deepwater rigs Has industries oldest fleet, avg. age of almost 30 years Decline in day rates can have a substantial impact • Deepwater discoveries show demand for DO’s rigs for years • Dividend policy disposes of excess cash and check on management team • Net Asset Value of Diamond’s fleet is $9.3B or $67/share

  21. Occidental Petroleum Corporation - OXY Bulls Bears Small player in a highly competitive global industry with bigger players Majority of resources are in declining US fields Slow permitting and facility issues have slowed development in California • Strong fiscal position provides opportunity to pursue distressed assets • Increasing production rates and adding to reserves • Exploration in California will probably lead to future low-cost production

  22. SeaDrillLimited - SDRL Bulls Bears Seahawk holdings did not work out very well – declared bankruptcy Leveraged balance sheet could topple due to deepwater drilling downturn Orders deepwater rigs without a contract in place • Owns one of the newest and most advances deepwater fleets • Opportunistic investing talents have generated major gains for shareholders • Net asset value of fleet around $6.5B or $14/share

  23. Ensco plc - ESV Bulls Bears Decline in day rates can have a substantial impact 50% jackup spending controlled by 10 companies, decrease in spending could be significant 70+ jackups under construction, most do not have a contract • New rigs are obtaining high day rates – highest AT returns • Acquired Pride for new rigs in 2011 • Net asset value of fleet about $12.3B or $54/share

  24. Airtime: Thurs. April. 5 2012 | 6:00 PM ET Will Fed Policy Lift Stocks?

  25. THERE ARE NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, AS TO ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, OR RESULTS OBTAINED FROM ANY INFORMATION DISCUSSED DURING HAWKTRADE MEETINGS.  Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investment returns and principal value will fluctuate, so that investors' shares, when sold, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Investing in any financial instruments does not guarantee that an investor will make money, avoid losing capital, or indicate that the investment is risk-free. There are no absolute guarantees in investing. HAWKTRADE and its members do not bear any responsibility for losses or gains made by members trading on their personal accounts based on analysis from HAWKTRADE meetings.

  26. THERE ARE NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, AS TO ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, OR RESULTS OBTAINED FROM ANY INFORMATION DISCUSSED DURING HAWKTRADE MEETINGS.  Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investment returns and principal value will fluctuate, so that investors' shares, when sold, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Investing in any financial instruments does not guarantee that an investor will make money, avoid losing capital, or indicate that the investment is risk-free. There are no absolute guarantees in investing. HAWKTRADE and its members do not bear any responsibility for losses or gains made by members trading on their personal accounts based on analysis from HAWKTRADE meetings.

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