Recent trends in dynamical medium-range tropical cyclone track prediction and the role of resolution v physics in the ECMWF model. Mike Fiorino [email protected] Assimilation and Modeling Branch Global Systems Division Earth System Research Laboratory Boulder, CO 4 March 2009.
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Assimilation and Modeling Branch
Global Systems Division
Earth System Research Laboratory
4 March 2009
POD of NHEM TC in reanalysis v
improvement in 1989 from physics change, ditto for degradation in 1994…
850 mb tropical wind score
time when the correlation of forecast and analysis vector wind drops to 70%
medium-range track (72-h) mean forecast error – two models UKMO (global) and GFDL (limited-area) with long history v ‘best’ or baseline consensus (BCON) 1992-2008
SKILL– percent improvement over the no-skill baseline aid
CLIPER (climatology and persistence)
CLIPER trend? better databases
error cut in half from ~ 280 130 nm 1990s-> 2008
BCON better than models
OFCL ~ BCON
higher skill in 2008 even though CLIPER error increased
UKMO and GFDL models did very well in 2008….
ECMWF is 20% better than BCON when most models are 20% worse
at the medium range (72 h)