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Steve Brice Regional Head of Research Middle East and South Asia

Qatar: The best is yet to come. Steve Brice Regional Head of Research Middle East and South Asia. Overview. Outstanding medium term prospects Securing the future Realising the country’s potential. Outstanding medium-term prospects. Nobody better positioned than Qatar.

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Steve Brice Regional Head of Research Middle East and South Asia

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  1. Qatar: The best is yet to come Steve Brice Regional Head of Research Middle East and South Asia

  2. Overview • Outstanding medium term prospects • Securing the future • Realising the country’s potential

  3. Outstanding medium-term prospects

  4. Nobody better positioned than Qatar Bubble size = size of economy The most dynamic Middle East economy Resource rich and reform orientated Qatar Jordan Bahrain UAE Oman Lebanon SaudiArabia Reform Kuwait Egypt Iran Libya Syria Hydrocarbon resources Source: SCB

  5. Development of gas reserves key near-term Total oil and gas production, ‘000s of barrels of oil equivalent Source: QP, QNB, SCB

  6. Securing the future

  7. Non-hydrocarbon balance key Source: QCB, IIF, SCB

  8. Fiscal targets consistent with inter-generational equity Policy goal Long-term oil price Target non-hydrocarbon assumption fiscal deficit USD per barrel % of 2004 GDP (QAR bn) Maintain constant oil 22 -30% [-31] and gas wealth 50 -54% [-56] 80 -88% [-91] Maintain constant oil 22 -4% [-4] and gas wealth per capita 50 -9% [-9] 80 -15% [-16] = = = = = = *For description of all assumptions see text Source: SCB

  9. Why bother? 2002 fuel shares of total final consumption (World) Scope for alternative fuel growth * geothermal, solar, wind, heat, etc Source: IEA

  10. Realising the country’s potential

  11. Hydrocarbon revenues as a catalyst Exploitative economy Exploratative economy Exploitingenergyresources Exploring energy resources Exploring economic potential • Crude oil/gas production • Petrochemicals • Extractive industries • Energy research and development • New energy technologies • Innovative energy industries • Dynamic research and development centre • Clusters of innovative companies in the energy and non-energy sectors

  12. Adding value to natural resources Value Added Across the Petrochemical Production Chain ( USD / Barrel ) Move downstream to create value Tertiary petrochemicals (e.g. plastic bags) +>200 Secondary petrochemicals (e.g. HDPE) +132 Primary petrochemicals (e.g. Ethylene) +36 Refining (e.g. Naphtha) +3 Crude oil Source: Saudi Arabia General Investment Authority (SAGIA)

  13. Energy research hub vs gas producer? Recognised research but commercial potential not tapped

  14. Current skill set weak in some key areas No. of students Source: Qatar Planning Council

  15. Region lags behind smaller economies in converted R&D GCC R&D Comparison Number of Patents filed in the US, by inventor country (1977-2003) Source: SCB, US Patent Office

  16. Focus on non-oil sector to bear fruit Nominal GDP trends, y/y Non-hydrocarbon growth has been trending down Source: SCB

  17. Qatar can be competitive outside of energy Index, 10 is very appropriate and 1 is not appropriate Diversification Source: SCB

  18. Scenario analysis of GDP per capita USD 000’s VI V III IV II I Source: SCB

  19. Summary • Outstanding medium term prospects • Securing the future • Realising the country’s potential

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