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Managing Variability: Rules, Incentives, and Behavior in Marine Resource Management

This resource discusses the issue of Tragedy-of-the-Commons in marine resource management and provides solutions to limit entry and address incentive problems. It emphasizes the importance of historical data in making policy decisions and explores the impacts of climate variability on fishing behavior. The text advocates for consistent policies managed by rules and touches on the advantages of environmentally-based rules in maintaining sustainable fisheries. A multidisciplinary approach, incorporating ecological and traditional economics, is highlighted as essential for informed decision-making.

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Managing Variability: Rules, Incentives, and Behavior in Marine Resource Management

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  1. Managing Variability: Rules, Incentives, and Behavior Mike Dalton California State University Monterey Bay Marine Biodiversity: Using the Past to Inform the Future Scripps Institute for Oceanography November 16, 2003

  2. Open Access Resources • Tragedy-of-the-Commons is the central problem in marine resource management • TOC is intensifying with population growth • Open access problems have win-win solutions • Solutions limit entry, fix incentive problems

  3. Fishing for Solutions • Multidisciplinary approach essential • Extend the framework of ecosystem services • Ecological economics is key but traditional microeconomics also has to be core feature • Coupled models: Ecopath/Ecosim and energy-economic growth models could explore multiple futures with population, technical change, etc.

  4. Historical Perspective in Economics • Historical data is central to empirical economics and policy analysis: Use observations of past decisions to infer how behavior would respond to specific changes in the decision-making environment • Making these inferences requires identifying structural models from time-series data

  5. Sardine Landings and Biomass 1930-2001 PDO

  6. Sardine Harvest Control Rule Harvest = Fraction(SST)•(Biomass - Cutoff)

  7. Four Cases of ENSO Variability: Northern Anchovies & Pacific Sardine in Monterey Bay & Southern California

  8. Fishing Effort and Ex Vessel Prices 1981-2001

  9. Significant at 5%

  10. Human Dimensions of Climate Variability • Significant direct effects of SSTs on fishing effort from changes in abundance and/or ex vessel prices • Significant Forward-looking behavior: Expectations about future climate affect current behavior

  11. Past Informing the Future Decisions about Fishing Effort Abundance & Prices Expectations are forecasts using current information Environmental Variability

  12. Management Implications • Dynamic inconsistencies can occur if managers do not consider forward-looking behavior when formulating regulations • Inconsistent policies can induce destabilizing feedbacks and other unintended problems • Consistent policies require managing by rules rather than discretion

  13. Advantages of Environmentally-Based Rules • Rules avoid destabilizing feedbacks and reduce risks of fishery collapse • Rules reduce uncertainty, providing direct efficiency gains and incentives for conservation • Rules can incorporate ecosystem interactions or other information (e.g. estimates of non-consumptive use values)

  14. Acknowledgements • California SeaGrant • William Daspit (PSMFC/PacFIN) • Ray Conser (NMFS/SWFSC) • SIO/CMBC, Sloan Foundation, NMFS/SWFSC

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