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Treasured Past . . . Unlimited Future Demographic Study 2007-2008. Demographic Study. 2007-08 Comprehensive Demographic Study by School District Strategies, LLC [SDS]. Historical population trends Current student population numbers Estimations of student growth for ten years

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Treasured Past . . .

Unlimited Future

Demographic Study

2007-2008


Demographic Study

2007-08 Comprehensive Demographic Study

by School District Strategies, LLC [SDS]

  • Historical population trends

  • Current student population numbers

  • Estimations of student growth for ten years

  • Projections of future student population characteristics

  • Recommended land acquisition and school sites


Historical Population Trends

2000 Census

1990-2000 Decade

  • Guadalupe County

  • 64,873 to 89,023 - 37.2% Growth

  • Seguin ISD Student Growth

    6871 to 7541- 9.8% Growth


Historical Population Trends

2000 - 2005

  • Guadalupe County (Estimated)

  • 89,023 t0 103,903 - 16.7% Growth

  • Seguin ISD Student Growth

    7541 to 7597- ~ 1% Growth


SDS Growth Projections

  • The impact that new homes will have in 5-10 years is substantial if development comes to fruition.

  • Growth in short term (2-3 years) will occur in Koennecke, Vogel, and Patlan zones.

  • Growth will shift in 3 years to McQueeney zone and be substantial between 2010-2015.


SDS Growth Projections

  • Middle school growth will shift in three years from Barnes to Briesemeister.

  • A projected 20-30 high school students will be added each year between 2010-2015.

  • There is a potential for rapid expansion; however, the district will most likely grow moderately over the next 3-5 years.


Growth Projections

Cohort Survival Method

Ten year growth projections based on the average historical survival rate over the past three years

New Home Method

Growth projections based on the rate of new home construction SDS used a ratio of 0.7 for SISD.


Growth Projections

From a 2006-07 enrollment of 7579, projections are

3 Year 7,679 (New Home Model)

  • 7,680 (Cohort Survival)

  • 5 Year 7,968 (New Home Model)

  • 7,811 (Cohort Survival)

  • 10 Year 8,505 (New Home Model)

    • 8,261 (Cohort Survival)

  • Cohort Survival Method

    Ten year growth projections based on the average historical survival rate over the past three years

    New Home Method

    Growth projections based on the rate of new home construction - SDS used a ratio of 0.7 for SISD.


    Student Demographics

    • Hispanic students will continue to increase at a faster rate than other identified sub-groups.

    • The percentage of children classified as Economically Disadvantaged will continue to increase at a pace greater than the overall student population.


    SDS Sources

    • United States Census Bureau

    • 2005 American Community Survey

    • Texas Dept of State Health Services

    • Texas State Data Center

    • Office of the State Demographer

    • Residential Strategies, Inc.

    • Seguin ISD


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