City University of Seattle Msc in Project Management Cohort 2005

1. City University of SeattleMsc in Project ManagementCohort 2005 Master Thesis Presentation

2. Master Thesis Title:“The Significance of Implementing a Well Organized Project Selection Methodology Using Multi-Criteria Analysis" Personal Information Last Name: Siskos First Name: Dimitrios Middle Name: Vasilios ID number: 20063511 Advisor’s Name: Dr Athanasios Spyridakos

3. Problem Statement Lack of a systematic project selection methology Results in: • Failure to successfully control and complete projects • Failure to accomplish stakeholders’ expectations and finally: • Withdrawal from the projects’ implementation • Compensation penalties

4. Literature Review • The importance of a capable project selection methodology • Project Management Books • IJPM Articles • Identification of the variables affecting projects selection • Project Management Books • Recommended solution through project management strategies • Project Management Books • Software Manuals

5. The research is oriented to the concept: not ‘‘doing projects right’’ but ‘‘doing the right projects’’ Reyck et al (2005)

6. Methodologies and Procedures • Confirmation of the problem statement • The Questionnaire • Multicriteria Analysis • The steps in MCA • Connection to the problem statement • Solution of the problem • Application of the MCA steps • Risk incorporation into processes • Simulation using Crystal Ball • Selection of the Optimum Solution using OptQuest

7. Confirmation of the problem statement • The Questionnaire • Remarkable Managers • Directors • Academic Professors • The Results See the Questionnaire 1

8. 2 Projects per year that getting failed to meet specifications 3

9. 4 Satisfaction about the existing project selection methodologies used among organizations 5 Intention to reject a profitable project if that considered to be very risky for the organization

10. Multicriteria Analysis • MCA technique: • Makes recommendations on the process of budgeting • Selects the best practice • Provides feedback on project selection methods • Enhances the project selection process • The steps in MCA: • Identify the problem to be addressed • Identify the targets to be judged • Identify the criteria • Weight the criteria in relevance to decision • Score the criteria in relevance to targets • Incorporate risk analysis • Produce multiple combinations • Select the appropriate solution • View the results • Evaluation and recommendations

11. MCA Connection to the problem statement 1 2 3 4 5 Identify the problem to be addressed Identify the targets to be judged Identify the criteria Weight the criteria in relevance to decision Score the criteria in relevance to targets the criteria Parameters which influence projects success Weight the criteria according to how much each one influences the decision Score the criteria per project according to the extent each one satisfies decision percentage Which projects to select All the candidate projects 6 7 8 9 10 Incorporate risk analysis Produce multiple combinations View the results Select the appropriate solution Evaluation and recommendations Incorporate appropriate risk distribution Select the “right” projects View the generated reports and evaluate the situation in a most realistic view Run continuous simulations Compare the results before and after applying the MCA process MCA Steps MCA impact to problem statement

12. MCA Step – 1 What is the problem? • Business Area: Constructing • Eight possible projects • Existing Data • (1) the expected revenue for each project if it is successful • (2) the multiple and different criteria which theirs scores impact success • (3) the estimated weighted project score for each project • (4) the initial investment required for each project • (5) the expected return and the expected profit for each project • One Constraint • Available budget only $2.0 million (selecting all projects would require a total initial investment of $2.8 million) • Target • Determine which projects to select to maximize the total expected profit while staying within the budget limitation See the table

13. MCA / Step 2 – How many are the candidate projects to execute and how will the manager decide? • 8 Constructing Projects MCA / Step 3 – Identifying the criteria • Profitability Resource availability Labor skills Perspectives Know how MCA / Step 4 – Weight the criteria in relevance to decision • CriteriaWeighting factor • Profitability 40% • Resource availability 10% • Labor skills 20% • Perspectives 20% • Know how 10%

14. MCA / Step 5 – Score the criteria in relevance to projects • Each criterion is computed depending on the percentage that fulfills decision

15. MCA / STEP 6 – Incorporate risk analysis Profitability Normal Distribution Resource Availability Minimum Extreme Distribution Labor skills Uniform Distribution Perspectives Pareto Distribution Know How Yes-No Distribution Allocate risk distributions into cells that represent criteria percentages values

16. MCA / Step 7 – Produce multiple combinations Simulate using Crystal Ball software $690.000<TP<$2.050.000 MCA / Step 8 – Select the appropriate solution Select Project Portfolio using OptQuest tool Selected Projects: 1,2,3,4,6,8 Rejected Projects: 5,7 Maximum TP=$1.148.000

17. MCA / Step 9 – View the results • Results coming out without incorporating risk into process • Rejecting 5,7 • TP=$1.470.000 • Results coming out after incorporating risk into process • Rejecting 5,7 • TP=$1.148.000

18. MCA / Step 10 – Evaluation and Recommendations The organization takes a rough decision I. The organization takes the “wrong” decision II. The organization takes the “right” decision III. There is an accounting balance of $322.000 between the two last decisions

19. Recommendations for Action • Staffing a Project Portfolio Decision Team (PPDT) Recommendations for Dissemination • Deliver a handbook • PPDT • Upper level management • Project members Recommendations for Additional Research and Study • Survey that exacts results in relation to the Work Packages of the WBS • Outcome: Better control of the portfolio per project • Cost and schedule controlling will be applied in a higher level

20. Thank you!