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Special Winter Weather Briefing 1/9/2010 slides: www.srh.noaa.gov/shv/briefing. Keith Stellman. National Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana. Overview. Today(Sunday)

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special winter weather briefing 1 9 2010 slides www srh noaa gov shv briefing

Special Winter Weather Briefing1/9/2010slides:www.srh.noaa.gov/shv/briefing

Keith Stellman

National Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana

overview
Overview

Today(Sunday)

East TX south of I-20: Rain mixing with sleet through early afternoon. Changing to all snow after noon. Accumulations of 2-4” possible

NE TX north of I-20: Sleet early changing to snow. Accumulations 3-6” with higher amounts possible toward TXK

SW AR and SE OK: Mostly snow. Accumulations highest in I-30 of 4-6” with some higher possible

North LA I-20 corridor north: Freezing rain, sleet, snow mix. Freezing rain/sleet early through early Afternoon..becoming all snow. Accumulations highest along AR/LA line of 4-5” I-20 corridor 1-3”. Ice Accumulations of 0.5 – 1.00” (includes sleet)

Lufkin->Many->Jena: Mostly rain. Some sleet mixing in. Brief changeover at the end. Maybe a dusting. Freezing rain/sleet in Grant/Winn/

Monday

Freezing drizzle possible after midnight through early AM

Light flurries early AM across I-30 corridor

AM Temperatures ≤ 32 areawide,

Upper 20’s along/north US 82 (Clarksville ->El Dorado)

National Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana

radar observations 830am
Radar/Observations (830AM)

Freezing line

National Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana

winter storm warnings
Winter Storm Warnings
  • All included except southern row.
  • Snow threat greatest north.
  • Freezing rain/sleet/snow central (I-20)
sleet snow freezing rain change temperature profile at noon sunday shreveport
Sleet/snow/Freezing rain changeTemperature profile at Noon Sunday - Shreveport
  • Warm nose 200-4000 feet a little cooler
    • Will likely see mixed bag through noon
  • Further north..all snow. West, rain/sleet as warm nose is bigger

Freezing line

Surface Tempeatures 28-31

Height

sleet snow freezing rain dilemma temperature profile at 3 pm sunday shreveport
Sleet/snow/Freezing rain DilemmaTemperature profile at 3 PM Sunday - Shreveport
  • Warm Nose disappears
  • Precip would become all snow Noon
  • Snow would fall onto any ice/sleet accumulations
  • Northern LA

Freezing line

Surface Tempeatures 28-31

Height

ice accumulation probabilities
Ice Accumulation Probabilities
  • Greatest risk along I-20..especially in North LA. Risk increases east.
  • Amounts generally 0.25-0.50” in green area…higher amounts possible eastern Parishes up to 1”
  • Through 4PM
snow probabilities 4
Snow Probabilities > 4”
  • Greatest risk along I-30..especially in North LA. Risk increases north.
  • Amounts generally 4-6” Red
  • 2-4” Green
  • 1-2” Blue
  • North all snow
  • Middle change ~noon-3PM
timing noon
Timing: Noon

NAM Model

  • Rain East TX mixing in
  • Mix elsewhere except north
timing 3 pm
Timing: 3 PM
  • Becoming mostly snow as upper low moves in
  • Heavy snows near the upper low (blue banded areas

NAM Model

timing 6pm
Timing: 6PM

NAM Model

  • Precip tapering off west and southwest.
  • Heaviest snows in I-30
  • Mixed bag east
national center snow forecast issued 6 am sunday
National Center Snow Forecast (issued 6 AM Sunday)
  • Higher amounts north where warm nose keeps precip mostly snow
  • Amounts lesser where sleet/freezing rain mixes in
overall forecast issued 6 am sunday
Overall Forecast (issued 6 AM Sunday)
  • Higher amounts north where warm nose keeps precip mostly snow
  • Amounts lesser where sleet/freezing rain mixes in
monday with snowpack highs lows could be colder
Monday (with snowpack, highs/lows could be colder)

Weather

Highs

Freezing Drizzle possible as

temperatures aloft warm

above freezing

Arctic Air Moving In

impacts
Impacts
  • Heavy snows possible late Sunday AM through early Monday AM (I-20 north)
  • Lower visibilities
  • Slushy roads in heavier sleet/snows
  • Heavy wet snows can weigh on pine trees and come down on powerlines
  • Cold temperatures through mid-week keep snows around
  • Pipe freezing issues, if temperatures remain <35 through mid week
  • If Freezing I-20 corridor: 0.25-0.50”
  • Snow will fall onto FZRA Sunday
  • Mainly North LA, but could spill into NE TX and Southern AR
  • Obvious travel issues
  • Power outages
  • Freezing Drizzle overnight areawide possible
next conference call

NEXT CONFERENCE CALL:

Thursday 10 AM (regular briefing)

Unless otherwise noted

www.srh.noaa.gov/shv/briefing

National Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana