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Discrepancies in Surface Flux Components Over the Tropical Eastern Pacific: Insights from AGCMs and NWPs

This analysis highlights the moderate disagreements in surface flux components between AGCMs (Bretherton) and NWPs (Jiang) over the tropical Eastern Pacific. Using COARE with NWP state variables improves flux estimates. Key contributors to biases in these models include clouds, PBL temperature, and humidity, with moisture errors being the largest source of error in latent heat flux. The study also analyzes cloud forcing biases, which influence sea surface temperature biases, and highlights the need for better representation of cloud dynamics in forecast models.

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Discrepancies in Surface Flux Components Over the Tropical Eastern Pacific: Insights from AGCMs and NWPs

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  1. Fluxes at the Air-Sea Interface-- Plenary AGCMs (Bretherton) and NWPs (Jiang) exhibit moderate disagreement in surface flux components over the tropical E Pacific. NWP flux improvement when use COARE with NWP state var. Clouds and PBL temperature/humidity key contributors (All) . Bias in moisture is largest source of error in latent heat flux (Jiang). NCEP1 has weaker winds and fewer high wind events in ITCZ region than NCEP2 or TAO. TDs? (Jiang) “If you get the clouds right, chances are you get the feedbacks right” (John Mitchell), “Comparing observations and climate models is a statistical game” (Fairall) Stratus region in NWPs have too little solar and IR cloud forcing; cold tongue has too much, particularly during warm season. Cloud forcing biases are correct sign to account for SST biases. (Cronin)

  2. Flux Synthesis Data Sets “Comparing observations and climate models is a statistical game” (Fairall) From 95W TAO moorings: Latent and sensible heat fluxes, net solar and longwave radiation, net surface heat flux, solar and longwave cloud forcing -- hourly, daily, monthly, seasonal cycle (Cronin) From EPIC moorings: Statistics and regressions for solar versus longwave cloud forcing -- 6 regions (Warm Pool, ITCZ, frontal, Cold Tongue, Southern, Stratus), seasonal cycle, dry months, wet months. (Cronin) Hybrid NWP and satellite turbulent heat fluxes for tropical Pacific (Jiang)

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