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Fusarium Head Blight Outbreak Frequency under a Changing Climate Environment

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Fusarium Head Blight Outbreak Frequency under a Changing Climate Environment

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    1. Fusarium Head Blight Outbreak Frequency under a Changing Climate Environment J M Fernandes, W Pavan and E Del Ponte

    2. Introduction Southern states – dryland Spring types – grown during winter –spring season Warming temperatures Increase in precipitation

    3. Wheat yield-reducing factors in Brazil Soil fertility (Al+++) Late Frost Sprouting Insects (BYDV) Fungal Diseases

    4. Wheat diseases epidemiology Pathogen Host Environment (climate) If we know enough …..then we can model!

    5. A Generic Disease Model Approach

    6. A Generic Disease Model Approach Model Parameterization All disease parameters are read from a XML file Plant organs (disease targets) get from crop model

    7. A Generic Disease Model Approach Epidemiological simulation model with three scales of spatial hierarchy Leaves-Plant-Field Lesions Expansion rate (Stochastic)

    8. Linking Crop Models to Disease Models Crop models legacy (DSSAT) Disease simulation models Models written in different computers language Ability to run models directly in the Web

    9. Linking Crop Models to Disease Models

    10. Linking Crop Models to Disease Models

    12. Monitoring spore density in the air…

    13. Spore cloud model

    14. A simulation example...

    15. FHB Model Applications

    16. Study area and climate dataset Passo Fundo ( 28°15'00"S , 52°25'12"W). Embrapa Wheat, (over 25 years of FHB records) A long-term daily climate dataset was available starting in1930´s Pergamino, Argentina

    17. FHB - Multiple simulations Simulations were performed for a 30-day period starting June 1st. Infection periods were computed in a period of time from the 4th to as long as the 20th day following beginning of wheat heading (time of flowering). Exploratory analysis

    18. FHB – Multiple Simulation Results, Passo Fundo, Brazil

    19. FHB – Multiple Simulation Results Pergamino, Argentina

    20. FHB x ENSO Phases

    21. Exploring South Atlantic Surface Temperature and FHB, Southeastern, SA

    22. South Atlantic Surface Temperature and FHB, Passo Fundo, Brazil

    23. South Atlantic Surface Temperature and FHB, Pergamino, Argentina

    24. Some highlights…. Minimum tillage plays a minor rule Weather is likely the driving force for epidemics Epidemics outbreaks are more frequent than before The environment is highly favorable to FHB development La Nińa years are less favorable South Atlantic Surface Temperature may be useful for seasonal forecast.

    25. Further research....

    26. FHB x Heading dates

    27. Crop Failure

    28. Thanks for your attention……

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