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De Wet's Dynamic Model enhances cold unit estimation by incorporating exposure timing to temperature cycles, showing superior performance in countering high day temperatures and promoting moderate temperatures in chilling cycles. The Positive Utah Chill Model (PCU) offers efficient estimation for various areas with suboptimal conditions, with easy-to-use estimates for both cold and warmer regions. Ideal for time-constrained situations lacking hourly data, the PCU facilitates accurate daily chilling forecasts without the need for detailed data.
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IMPROVED MODELS FOR COLD UNITS L. De Wet
THE DYNAMIC MODEL • Adds timing of exposure to Ta in a cycle • Based on experimental results • Superior – negating effect of high day Ta • Positive effect of moderate Ta in chilling cycle • Disadvantage – requires complex computerisation
POSITIVE UTAH CHILL MODEL(PCU) • Not as good as Dynamic model, but better than Utah model • Carry-over effect of negating Ta –deleted • PCUs for any area in SA in Table 2 • Optimal Ta range = Tmn between 0 oC and 7 oC
Table 2: PCU estimation table for any station in SA, determined by using sine curve for heating cycle, followed by log cooling cycle
PCU • PCU useful especially when time is limited and when hourly data is not available • Good estimations for both cold and warmer areas • Can be used for areas of similar latitude • Table 2 can be modified for higher and lower latitudes (diff day lengths) • Estimation of daily chilling possible (using Table 2) – no waiting for hourly data