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The energy issue and the possible contribution of various nuclear energy production scenarios part II . H.Nifenecker Scientific consultant LPSC/CNRS Chairman of « Sauvons le Climat ». IPCC projections. 2030 tCO2<50$/ton Renewables: 35% electricity Nuclear: 18% electricity.

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The energy issue and the possible contribution of various nuclear energy production scenariospart II

H.Nifenecker

Scientific consultant LPSC/CNRS

Chairman of « Sauvons le Climat »

ipcc projections
IPCC projections

2030

tCO2<50$/ton

Renewables: 35% electricity

Nuclear: 18% electricity

iea s successive prospects fo nuclear world energy outlook
IEA’s successive Prospects fo Nuclear (World Energy Outlook)

2020 2030

Mtoe TWh % Mtoe TWh %

WEO 1998 604 2317 8

WEO 2000 617 2369 9

WEO 2002 719 2758 11 703 2697 9

WEO 2004 776 2975 12 764 2929 9

WEO 2006 861 3304 10

Alt. 2006 1070 4106 14

prospect for nuclear production 2000 2030 twh aiea july 2006
Prospect for nuclear production 2000-2030 TWh (AIEA July 2006)

1400

1200

1000

2000

2010 b

800

2010 H

2020 b

600

2020 H

2030 b

2030 H

400

200

0

Am L Eur E MO+As S Ext. O

Am N

W Eur

Afr

Pacif

nuclear intensive scenarios
Nuclear Intensive Scenarios
  • Scenarios by difference:
    • P.A.Bauquis
    • D.Heuer and E.Merle
  • Objective oriented Scenarios
    • H.Nifenecker et al.
no miracle from renewables
No miracle from renewables
  • Hydro:
    • Limitation of ressource (Europe-USA)
    • Environment and localization (Am.Sud, Asie, Afrique, Russie)
    • Large Investments
    • Reliable, available
    • Might provide 20% of world electricity.

France: 70TWh/450

  • Wind
    • « fatal » Energy
    • Limit: 10-15% of electricity production
no miracle with renewables
No miracle with renewables
  • Solar
    • PV: Ideal for isolated sites (Africa, SE Asia). Mostly artificial in Developed Countries and very expansive
    • Thermal: interesting for heating and warm water
    • Thermodynamic: Fiability? Hot and dry climates Hot and dry climate.
  • Biomass
    • Bio-fuels (10 Mtep/50)
    • Wood energy.
    • Competition with food, energy and environmental balance
nuclear production
Nuclear production

In Bauquis Scenario

Nuclear production

0.6 Gtep

4 Gtep i.e. x 6.5

elsa merle and daniel heuer
Elsa Merle and Daniel Heuer

Hypothesis 2050

  • Stabilization of fossile contribution
  • World energy consumption x 2
  • Renewable = nuclear
  • Multiplication by factor 8
  • Then increase by 1.2%/year up to 2100

Nuclear :

2000 iiasa wec scenarios
2000 IIASA-WEC Scenarios
  • A: strong growth
    • A1: Oil
    • A2: Coal
    • A3:Gaz
  • B: Middle of the road
  • C: Low energy intensity. High electricity
    • C1: Ren.+Gaz
    • C2: Ren.+Nuclear
world gdp
World GDP

B2: 110 000

exhaustion of fossile reserves
Exhaustion of fossile reserves

Exhaustion of fossile reserves

(Gtoe)

2030 2050
2030-2050

2030

  • Minimize use of fossils forElectricity
  • « Reasonable » Development of Nuclear
    • OECD: 85%
    • Transition:50%
    • China, India, Latin America:30%

3000 GWe Nuclear

2050

  • Minimize use of coal and gas
  • 30% coal China, India; 30% gas Russia; 100% Africa
  • 7500 GWe Nucléaire
scenario no coal no gaz in 2050
Scenario no coal no gaz in 2050

B2=18000, Nuclear=1450

u pu vs th u
U-Pu vs Th-U

U-Pu versus Th-U cycles

  • U-Pu
    • Fast Spectra
    • Pu fuel
    • 1.2 GWe reactors
    • Solid fuels
    • 1 year cooling
    • 25 years doubling time
  • Th-U
    • Thermal Spectra
    • Pu, then 233U fuel
    • 1 GWe reactors
    • Molten Salts fuel
    • 10 days fuel cycling
    • 25 years doubling time
stabilisation t
Stabilisation T
  • Stabilization of CO2 concentration to 450 ppm
  • Stabilization of temperature
3 components
3 components
  • 233U production:
  • 450 PWR and 300 FNR
  • Les RNR ferment le cycle U/Pu
  • natU consumption:
  • 7 million tons by 2100
  • 10 times less fissile matter in fuel cycle
  • Minor actinides production minimized
r and d needs standard reactors
R and D needsstandard reactors
  • PWR reactors
    • Selective reprocessing: extraction of Cs, Sr and M.A.
    • Th-Pu MOx fuel in order to produce U233
  • Candu type reactors
    • Use of Th-Pu and, then Th-U3 fuel
    • Reprocssing of Th-U3 fuel
    • Optimization of fuel regeneration
r and d needs fast neutron reactors
R and D needsfast neutron reactors
  • Sodium cooled
    • Void coefficient
    • Core Recompaction
    • Th blanket
    • Reprocessing of Th blanket
  • Lead cooled reactors
    • Corrosion problems
    • Pb-Bi alloys
  • Molten salt cooled reactors
    • Chemical composition
    • Corrosion
  • Gas cooled reactors
    • Reprocessing of refractory fuels
r and d needs molten salt reactors
R and D needsmolten salt reactors
  • Neutron spectrum optimization
  • Corrosion
  • Fuel reprocessing
proliferation
Proliferation
  • Political or technical question?
references
References
  • http://www.iiasa.ac.au/web-apps/ggi/
  • GgiDb/dsd?Action=htmlpage&page=series
  • Scenarios with an Intensive Contribution of Nuclear Energy
  • to the World Energy Supply
  • H.Nifenecker et al.Published in IEJE 1999
  • Scenarios for a Worldwide Deployment of Nuclear
  • Energy Production
  • E. Merle-Lucotte1, D. Heuer, C. Le Brun & J-M. Loiseaux
  • Note LPSC 05-73
  • “L’Energie de demain: techniques, environnement,économie”,
  • J.L.Bobin, E.Huffer, H.Nifenecker, EDP Sciences 2005, p.81-111
  • “Accelerator Driven Subcritical Reactors”, H.Nifenecker, S.David,
  • O.Méplan, IOP 2004