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The energy issue and the possible contribution of various nuclear energy production scenarios

The energy issue and the possible contribution of various nuclear energy production scenarios

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The energy issue and the possible contribution of various nuclear energy production scenarios

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  1. The energy issue and the possible contribution of various nuclear energy production scenarios H.Nifenecker Scientific consultant LPSC/CNRS Chairman of « Sauvons le Climat »

  2. Global Heating Challenge

  3. Models for emission (a) and concentrations of CO2 (b) (a) (b)

  4. The effort to do Global Warming • 2004 Emissions : 7,3 GtC (6,4 in 2000) • World population: 6,3 Billions (6,0 in 2000) • Emission/capita: 1,15 Ton C (1,06 in 2000) Max. emission for temperature stabilization: 3GtC • Objective for 2050 • World Population(minimum) : 9 Billions • Emission/capita: 0.33 Ton

  5. 2004 emissions • World average: 1,15 ton C/capita • USA: 5,4 tons C/capita • Germany : 2,8 tons C/capita • France: 1.7 tons C/capita • China: 0.75 tons C/capita

  6. Origin of world CO2 emissions

  7. Factors to control Energy intensities CO2 intensities

  8. tCO2/tep

  9. tCO2/elec Role of electricity tCO2/tep

  10. Strategic role of Electricity

  11. Electricity substitute to fossiles -Transportation • Mass transportation • Electric car • Hydrogen (electrolysis or reforming + CS (CO2) • Bio-Fuels -Heating • Insulation • Thermal Solar • Biomass (wood, wastes, bio-gas) • Geothermal • Heat Pump • Electric Heat

  12. Learn from the past

  13. Comparison of electricity mixOECD vs France

  14. First step: electricity mix Assume same mix for OECD as for France

  15. Comparison of CO2 emissions for observed and potential mix Gain: 0.67

  16. Second step: Heatproduction with electricity

  17. Total gain: 0.3Residual « transport » CO2

  18. Evolution of GHG emissions Evolution of world GHG Emissions Increase dominated by CO2

  19. Origin of GHG emissions

  20. GHG emissions by sectorDominant rôle of energy sector

  21. Building of scenariosExample of IAASA-WECscenarios

  22. Population projections

  23. GDP Projections

  24. Energy Demand

  25. Energy demand per aggregate

  26. Total primary energy B2

  27. Nuclear B2

  28. % electricity in B2

  29. Coal B2

  30. % nuclear electricity

  31. IIASANuclear electricity in 2050compared to 2000 • Baseline: • Share of electricity multiplied by 1.64 • Share of nuclear multiplied by 1.38 • Nuclear multiplied by 2,26 • 670 ppm • Share of electricity multiplied by 1.73 • Share of nuclear multiplied by 1,55 • Nuclear multiplied by 2,68 • 480 ppm • Share of electricity multiplied by 1.98 • Share of nuclear multiplied by 1,65 • Nuclear multiplied by 3,26

  32. Share of CO2less in electricityB2 470 ppm

  33. Share of CO2less in electricityBaseline

  34. Share of CO2less in electricityOECD

  35. Share of CO2less in electricityAsia

  36. Share of CO2less in electricityALM

  37. Share of CO2less in electricityREF

  38. CO2 concentrations

  39. Relation GHG concentrationtemperature

  40. IPCC scenarios

  41. Evolution of CO2 emissionsin IPCC scenarios

  42. IPCC projections 2030 tCO2<50$/ton Renewables: 35% electricity Nuclear: 18% electricity

  43. IEA’s successive Prospects fo Nuclear (World Energy Outlook) 2020 2030 Mtoe TWh % Mtoe TWh % WEO 1998 604 2317 8 WEO 2000 617 2369 9 WEO 2002 719 2758 11 703 2697 9 WEO 2004 776 2975 12 764 2929 9 WEO 2006 861 3304 10 Alt. 2006 1070 4106 14

  44. Prospect for nuclear production 2000-2030 TWh (AIEA July 2006) 1400 1200 1000 2000 2010 b 800 2010 H 2020 b 600 2020 H 2030 b 2030 H 400 200 0 Am L Eur E MO+As S Ext. O Am N W Eur Afr Pacif

  45. Nuclear Intensive Scenarios • Scenarios by difference: • P.A.Bauquis • D.Heuer and E.Merle • Objective oriented Scenarios • H.Nifenecker et al.

  46. No miracle from renewables • Hydro: • Limitation of ressource (Europe-USA) • Environment and localization (Am.Sud, Asie, Afrique, Russie) • Large Investments • Reliable, available • Might provide 20% of world electricity. France: 70TWh/450 • Wind • « fatal » Energy • Limit: 10-15% of electricity production