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IPCC Caribbean Climate Change Conclusions. Professor Anthony Chen. IPCC Caribbean Climate Change Conclusions. Climate Change Conference UWI, Mona June 1-17,2007 A. Anthony Chen Climate Studies Group, Mona Department of Physics University of the West Indies, Mona.

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ipcc caribbean climate change conclusions1

IPCC Caribbean Climate Change Conclusions

Climate Change Conference

UWI, Mona

June 1-17,2007

A. Anthony Chen

Climate Studies Group, Mona

Department of Physics

University of the West Indies, Mona

advisory report on global change global warming no big deal have a nice day
Advisory Report on Global Change: global warming …no… big…deal…have…a…nice…day…
greenhouse gases in atmosphere
Greenhouse Gases in Atmosphere
  • Water vapor, Carbon Dioxide, Nitrous Oxide, Methane, Oxygen, Ozone, Chlorofluro-carbons
    • Naturally occurring and man made
  • They trap the radiant heat from earth, making the earth warmer
    • Greenhouse effect, similar to horticultural greenhouse
we need the greenhouse effect
We need the greenhouse effect
  • Without naturally occurring greenhouse gases Earth’s temperature would be about 33ºC Colder
need nearly constant amount of co 2 but
Need nearly constant amount of CO2 …But …

CO2 Concentration (ppmv)

CO2 Concentration in Ice Core

Projected 2100

2001

Last ice age

400,000

100,000

Years before Present

too much runaway greenhouse effect co 2 and h 2 o vapour
Too much: Runaway Greenhouse effect – CO2 and H2O Vapour

Increased CO2

Increased Air Temperature

Evaporation

Greenhouse Effect

H2O vapour

slide9

Venus

Earth

Venus is almost the same size as the Earth but completely uninhabitable. A runaway greenhouse effect makes the surface 400 degrees hotter than the Earth.

slide10

Founded 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)

Working Group I assesses the scientific aspects of climate change. Working Group II assesses impacts, vulnerability and adaptation

Working Group III assesses options for mitigating climate change.

ipcc assessment reports
IPCC Assessment Reports
  • 1990: First Assessment Report (FAR)
  • 1995: Second Assessment Report (SAR)
  • 2001: Third Assessment Report (TAR)
  • 2007: Fourth Assessment Report (AR4)
chapter 11
Chapter 11
  • Includes section on small islands for first time: Caribbean, Indian Ocean, North and South Pacific Oceans
processes to reduce uncertainties in chapter 11
Processes to Reduce Uncertainties in Chapter 11
  • Climate (average state of weather), not day to variation in weather
  • Assessment based on peer reviewed papers and publications up to March 2006
    • Observed trends in climate
    • Global Circulation Models of Climate
    • Downscaling of global models
      • Regional climate models (dynamic)
      • Statistical downscaling
  • Strong Physical basis or explanation
  • Greater degree of certainty when more of the above agree
special report on emission scenarios sres
Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES)

CO2 Emissions

A2

A1B

B1

2000 2100

ar4 summary statement for caribbean region based on limited peer reviewed papers and data
AR4 Summary Statement for Caribbean region based on limited Peer Reviewed Papers and Data:
  • Sea levels will likely continue to rise on average during the century around the islands of the Caribbean Sea. (Models indicate that the rise will not be geographically uniform globally but large deviations among models make estimates of distribution across the Caribbean, Indian and Pacific Oceans uncertain.)
  • All Caribbean islands are very likely to warm during this century. The warming is likely to be somewhat smaller than the global, annual mean warming in all seasons.
  • Rainfall in the vicinity of the Greater Antilles is likely to decrease in JJA but changes elsewhere and in DJF are uncertain.

Likely: > 66%

Very likely > 90%

rest of presentation
Rest of Presentation
  • Some details of projection for the Caribbean (Chapter 11)
  • Global Projections (Chapter 10 ) which may affect the Caribbean

– Hurricanes, ENSO, NAO, Sea level rise

  • Others more recent research (non-AR4)
    • CSGM Regional Downscaling using PRECIS
  • Limitations (Needs)
ar4 assessment of observed caribbean temperature change
AR4 Assessment of Observed Caribbean Temperature Change
  • Peterson and Taylor, et al, 2002:Journal of Geophysical Research
    • Significant warming trend from1950’s to 2000
    • Based on UWI Climate Data workshop in 2001
slide19

AR4 Assessment of temperature Change

  • 21Global Models using SRES A1B Scenario:
  • Monthly Increases projected to 2090

All models give temperature rises for all months

Temperature Change ºC

25%

50%

2ºC

25%

Average

Jan

Dec

slide21

AR4: Statistical Downscaling: Piarco Airport (T&T) Temperature projected statistically from 1960-1990 to 2080’s using A2(Cassandra Rhoden, MPhil thesis, UWI, Mona)

Temp ºC

2ºC

Global

Statistical

1960-90 2080

Global and downscaled projected changes agree. Similarly for Worthy Park, Jamaica and Grantley Adam, Barbados

slide22

Post AR4 Dynamic Downscaling: Regional model simulated changes in temperature by 2080’s based on 1960 – 1990 data (Jayaka Campbell, MPhil thesis, UWI, Mona)

A2

B2

3ºC

2ºC

slide23
Strong Physical Basis for temperature increases: Man made greenhouse gases increases the amount of heat trapped by the atmosphere:
virtually certain that caribbean temperatures will increase
Virtually certain that Caribbean temperatures will increase
  • Agreement of observation, global models, statistical downscaling, good physical basis
  • Extent will depend on actual green house gas emissions

~ 2ºC for A1B scenario, ~ 3ºC Globally

  • Even if emissions ceased today temperatures will rise at the end of the century due to long lifetimes of CO2 and methane and long ‘memory’ of the oceans
slide25

AR4 Assessment of 21 Global Models’ Projection of Changes in Precipitation from 1980’s to 2080’s using A1B Scenario

Significant decrease in JJA

Jul-Aug

Annual

Dec-Feb

+50

% Change

Large number of models showing decrease

-50

No. of models increasing

21

0

slide26

AR4 Assessment: Monthly Precipitation Change over the Caribbean from 21 models using AIB from 1980’s to 2080’s

25% models give increases

Increases

Percentage Change

Decreases

Most models decrease in Jun to Aug

Dec

Jan

precipitation summary
Precipitation Summary
  • Expect drying in the Greater Antilles in JJA
    • General Agreement between Global Models
    • A Global model run for the Caribbean show decrease in JJA (Angeles et al, 2007)
    • Some statistical runs show decreases in JJA
    • Drying trend in observed data (Neelin et al., 2006)
    • Theoretically, drying is probable in Greater Antilles (Chou and Neelin,2004) **
slide28

Simplified Mechanism – Wet Gets Wetter

Convective adjustment

-Rising air due to CO2 induced heating

Reduced Rising

Most model agree in JJA

Some models do not agree

Moisture moves in because of adjustment - wetter

Moisture moves out - drier

Adjacent region:

Lesser Antilles Greater Antilles

Near the equator

precipitation summary1
Precipitation Summary
  • Expect drying in the Greater Antilles in JJA
    • General Agreement between Global Models
    • A Global model run for the Caribbean show decrease in JJA (Angeles et al, 2007)
    • Some statistical runs show decreases in JJA
    • Drying trend in observed data (Neelin et al., 2006)
    • Theoretically, drying is probable in Gtr Antilles (Chou and Neelin, **
  • Not enough results to make statement for rest of Caribbean and rest of the year
other results supporting drying
Other Results Supporting drying:
  • North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
    • In multimodel analysis, NAO increases
  • El Niño
    • Model consensus gives El Niño like pattern with higher temperatures in the eastern Pacific.
  • These conditions are associated with drying in the Caribbean.
north atlantic hurricanes
North Atlantic Hurricanes
  • Observations
    • an increasing trend in the frequency and duration of North Atlantic hurricane significant at the 99% confidence level (Webster et al., 2005: Science, 309: 1844-1846).
slide32

Actual (observed) tracks 1979-1988

20 Km Japanese model result of Hurricane tracks (Oouchie et al, 200)

Simulated Present day tracks

Simulated Future tracks (2080-2099)

Greater density

not enough
Not Enough
  • Not enough results to make statement about the Caribbean hurricanes
  • NOAA, 2006: Observed increases can also be explained by natural variability (as opposed to anthropogenic induced variability)
  • Anthropogenic influence: You are invited to attend Dr. Holland’s lecture tomorrow for more information at 6 pm, Social Science Lecture Theatre
sea level rise
Sea Level Rise
  • Observation
    • The rise in the Caribbean appears to be near the global mean (Church et al, 2004: J. Clim., 17, 2609-2625).
    • 1.8 ± 0.3 mm per year or 0.18m per 100year over the period 1950– 2000.
  • Modelling
    • Large deviation among models
    • No regional modelling
    • Global mean rise expected: 0.2 to 0.5 m up to 2090’s
  • No enough to make IPCC statement for the Caribbean
ipcc ar4 statement for caribbean based on limited peer reviewed papers and data
IPCC AR4 Statement for Caribbean based on limited Peer Reviewed Papers and Data:
  • Sea levels will likely continue to rise on average during the century
  • All Caribbean islands are very likely to warm below the global average during this century.
  • Rainfall in the vicinity of the Greater Antilles is likely to decrease in JJA but changes elsewhere and in DJF are uncertain.
  • Other non-IPCC projections based on limited data
  • Frequency and intensity of hurricanes in the North Atlantic will probable increase
  • Sea level rise in the Caribbean will probable follow global trend
limitations to knowledge of caribbean climate change
Limitations to knowledge of Caribbean Climate Change
  • Global models do not see islands, except …
  • Little dynamic and statistical downscaling.
  • Many Caribbean climatic processes not well understood.
  • Insufficient model runs to determine regional distribution of cyclone changes.
  • Uncertainty about future El Niño.
  • Large deviations among models make regional distribution of sea level rise uncertain.
  • Limited number of storm surge models.
slide37

How can we fix the problem?

Den Why dem no use TUMS fi get rid of the gas!

no quick or easy fixes
No quick or easy fixes
  • Mitigation
    • Alternative and new sources of energy

UWI Physics Students wiring a solar panel

Munro Wind turbine

no quick or easy fixes1
No quick or easy fixes
  • No Mitigation
    • Point of no return (Runaway Greenhouse effect)?
no quick or easy fixes2
No quick or easy fixes

E.G., Study of impact of Climate Change on Biodiversity

  • Adaptation
    • Impact studies
need to reduce uncertainties about climate
Need to reduce uncertainties about climate
  • Much More research needed
    • To be able to predict day by day weather
    • To predict future climate change
  • With others
    • Tackling Climate Change and Getting ready for 5th IPCC Assessment

Climate Studies Group, Mona (CSGM)

finis
FINIS

What we must do is see the whole world as our “self”

Only then will we be worthy

of being entrusted with the World (Earth)

Only One who values the World as his own body

can truly rely on the World in return.

Lao Tsu, over 2000 years ago