Bioenergy Sustainability: Want to get involved? University of California, Santa Cruz – August 8, 2011 Elliott CampbellAssistant Professor UC Merced
Global trends for future resource needs • 50% increase in population by 2050 • 70% increase in food demand by 2050 • 40% increase in energy demand by 2030 The challenge is not simply meeting increased demand, but doing so sustainably.
Consequences of our utter dependenceon petroleum for transportation
Liquid Biofuel (EPA, 2010)
Biopower (EIA, 2010)
Why Bioenergy Sustainability? • Emerging policy innovations • Synergies with poverty alleviation • Perhaps better to ask “How?”
Roadmap • How much land is available? • What are the life-cycle impacts? • What is bioenergy precarious role in the climate-energy nexus?
Quantifying Abandoned Agriculture 1) Abandoned agriculture areas from historical land use data (HYDE, SAGE) 2) Exclude agriculture-to-forest and agriculture-to-urban (MODIS12C1) 3) High estimate of potential yields from ecosystem model (CASA) 4) Regional bioenergy potential on abandoned agriculture lands. 1700 1710 1720
Global Land Use (Campbell et al., ES&T, 2008)
Bioenergy Without Land • Algae bioenergy sustainability (Wiley, Campbell, McKuin, WER, 2011) • Wastewater co-benefits • Efficient harvesting with electrocoagulation and electrofloculation (Trent, 2010)
Algae Harvesting Bottlekneck • Electrocoagulation / Electroflocculation • Surface charge analysis of algae • (Wiley, Campbell, McKuin, WER, 2011)
Bioenergy Land Summary • A global resource… Abandoned Agriculture • Regional opportunities… Mountaintop Mining • No land use… Offshore Algae • Not commercially viable yet • Electrochemical approach is emerging
Science Communication (Campbell et al., Science, 2009)
How many miles per acre does your car get? a) Ethanol b) Bioelectricity (Campbell, Lobell, & Field, Science, 2009)
Energy Security is not independent of climate change Volatility = 15% Volatility = 30% (Campbell, Sloan, Snyder, et al., In Prep)
Brazil (DOE, 2009)
Sugarcane residue export… export to the US or use it in Brazil? • Converting Brazilian residue to electricity has greater GHG benefits than conversion to ethanol • Residue-based ethanol has small impact on US energy security but electricity would have massive impact on Brazilian energy security (Campbell & Block, ES&T, 2010)
Optical Properties of Emmissions (Campbell et al., In Prep)
Marginal Abatement Cost (McKinsey, 2007)
Developing World Electrification Impacts (Casillas and Kammen, Science, 2010)
What Really Drives Electricification of Rural Developing World? (McKuin & Campbell, In Prep)
Global greenhouse emissions What’s missing from this picture?
Energy Wedges Are Changing? (Pacala and Socolow, Science, 2004)
Carbonyl Sulfide (COS, OCS, CSO) • Role in stratosphere (Crutzen, 1976) • A novel tracer of carbon sequestration?
Vertical Profiles (Campbell et al., Science, 2008)
New Simulations Suggest Larger Wedges (Campbell et al., In Prep)
Summary • Rapid growth with or without sustainability basis. • Resources available for a multi-disciplinary approach to bioenergy research and education. • Many opportunities for engaging with industry, policy, and mass media.
Acknowledgments • NSF/CAREER (Env’l Sustainability Program #0955141) • DOE/Institute for Climatic Change (#050516Z30) • Stanford/Carnegie: Chris Field, Joe Berry, David Lobell • Iowa: Jerry Schnoor, Greg Carmichael • NASA: Stephanie Vay, Randy Kawa • Wonderful Students! Andrew Mckuin, Brandi McKuin, Chi-Chung Tsao, Patrick Wiley, Xianyu Yang
Life-cycle Assessment Practice • Question: What are the life-cycle GHG emissions of ethanol (g CO2e MJ-1)? • Objective: Team presentations in 30 min (~4 slides) • Materials: http://faculty.ucmerced.edu/ecampbell3/ucsc/ • Approach: Modify a widely referenced LCA model (Farrell et al., Science, 2006) with updated information • Team 1: Crutzen et al. (N2O) • Team 2: Plevin et al. (Feedstock location) • Team 3: Searchinger et al. (Indirect land-use) • Team 4: Fargione et al. (Direct land-use)
Climate and Income (Tilman , 2009)
Food and Income (Tilman, 2009)