population growth and its implications for development l.
Download
Skip this Video
Loading SlideShow in 5 Seconds..
Population Growth and Its Implications for Development PowerPoint Presentation
Download Presentation
Population Growth and Its Implications for Development

Loading in 2 Seconds...

play fullscreen
1 / 42

Population Growth and Its Implications for Development - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 180 Views
  • Uploaded on

Population Growth and Its Implications for Development. Carl Haub Senior Demographer Population Reference Bureau Washington, DC. Population growth and its implications for ACP rural development CTA, Brussels, 27 January 2010. Contemporary World Population Issues.

loader
I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.
capcha
Download Presentation

PowerPoint Slideshow about 'Population Growth and Its Implications for Development' - johana


An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Presentation Transcript
population growth and its implications for development

Population Growth and Its Implications for Development

Carl Haub

Senior Demographer

Population Reference Bureau

Washington, DC

Population growth and its implications for ACP rural development

CTA, Brussels, 27 January 2010

POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU | www.prb.org

contemporary world population issues
Contemporary World Population Issues
  • All population growth is now in the poorest countries and areas.
  • Very young age structures in developing countries guarantee this.
  • The situation is most acute in sub-Saharan Africa.
  • As essential as population projections are, their accuracy must be continuously monitored.
  • Extreme aging will place enormous stress upon many industrialized countries’ economies and societies.
  • Low fertility in developed countries presents South-North migration opportunities.
  • Development is often impeded by a lack of reproductive rights.
  • In many ways, population change in the U.S. is not very different from that of Europe.
global population growth is almost entirely concentrated in the world s poorer countries
Global Population Growth Is Almost Entirely Concentratedin the World's Poorer Countries

Billions

Global Population:

1900 = 1.6 Billion

2000 = 6.1 Billion

2011 = 7 Billion

World Population (in Billions): 1950-2050

Developing Countries

Developed Countries

United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, The 2008 Revision.

slide4

The 20th Century Population Explosion Was a Result of the Mortality “Revolution”

Life Expectancy at Birth (years)

Source: Costa Rica 1927 and 1950 - CICRED, others UN2006; Sri Lanka: ESCAP Country Monograph up to not incl. 1950, then UN2006

US: up to 1970 Vital Statistics books online; After 1970 NVSR 56:6 page 26

slide5

Fewer and Fewer Young People and Future Aging

Developed Countries by Age and Sex, 2009

Age

Females

Males

Millions

United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, The 2008 Revision, medium variant

slide6

Large Numbers of Young People and Large Population Growth

Developing Countries by Age and Sex, 2009

Age

Females

Males

Millions

United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, The 2008 Revision, medium variant

population of the world s regions 2009 and 2050 projected
Population of the World’s Regions, 2009 and 2050 Projected

Millions

Population Reference Bureau, 2009 World Population Data Sheet

the total fertility rate tfr indice synth tique de f condit isf
The Total Fertility Rate (TFR)Indice synthétique de fécondité (ISF)

The TFR is the average number of children a woman would bear in her lifetime if the birth rate of a particular year were to remain constant.

how are projections made
How Are Projections Made?
  • The United Nations assumes that birth rates will decline so that all developing countries will eventually average a European-like 1.85 children per woman.
  • That assumption is entirely dependent upon the additional assumption that the use of family planning will rise to the same level as that in Europe and North America, which the UN is very careful to point out.
slide10

The “Demographic Divide”

The Example of Nigeria and Japan

NigeriaJapan

Population 2009 (millions) 153 128

Population 2050 (millions) 285 95

Lifetime Births per Woman 5.7 1.4

Annual Number of Births 6,200,000 1,100,000

Percent of Population Below Age 15 45 13

Percent of Population Age 65+ 3 23

Life Expectancy at Birth 47 83

Infant Deaths per 1,000 Births 75 2.6

Annual Number of Infant Deaths 465,000 2,900

Percent of Adults with HIV/AIDS 3.1 -

2009 World Population Data Sheet

slide11

Fertility Decline in Bangladesh and the United States, 1800 - 2006

Two Very Different Histories

Lifetime children per woman

Population Reference Bureau, NCHS, DHS surveys

slide12

United Nations, World Population Prospects, the 2009 Revision and 2009 World Population Data Sheet

slide14

Lifetime children per woman

Demographic and Health Surveys and Statistics South Africa

use of modern contraception clinic and supply methods mid 1990s and most recent
Use of Modern Contraception (Clinic and Supply Methods), mid-1990s and Most Recent

% of Married women, ages 15-49

TFRs=

3.2/2.4

4.1/3.3

6.1/6.2

4.8/4.0

6.9/6.7

6.1/5.2

5.2/4.0

Demographic and Health Surveys

unmet need for family planning percent of married in union women
“Unmet Need” for Family Planning, Percent of Married/in Union Women

TFR=

2.4

3.3

6.2

4.0

6.7

5.2

4.0

Demographic and Health Surveys

slide17

Demographic and Health Survey

* Question asked of husbands

slide18
HIV Prevalence Before and After Nationally-representative Surveys Were Taken, Selected sub-Saharan African Countries, 2003-2006

Percent of adult population

UNAIDS and Demographic and Health Surveys

slide19
Future World Population Growth Will Be in Places Defined by Countries as “Urban” While Rural Places Decline

Billions

World Population (in Billions): 1950-2050

Urban

Rural

United Nations Population Division, World Urbanization Prospects, The 2007 Revision.

what are urban places
What Are Urban Places?
  • Argentina Populated centers with 2,000 or more
  • Canada Places of 1,000 or more*
  • China Cities designated by the State Council and other places with density of 1,500 or more per sq. km.*
  • India Specified towns with governments and places with 5,000 or more and at least three-fourths of the male labor force not in agriculture*
  • Japan Cities (shi) with 50,000 or more*
  • Maldives Malé, the capital
  • Mexico Localities of 2,500 or more
  • Niger Capital city and department and district capitals
  • New Zealand Cities, towns, etc. with 1,000 or more
  • Norway Localities of 200 or more
  • Peru Populated centers with 100 or more dwellings
  • Senegal Agglomerations of 10,000 or more
  • United States Places of 2,500 or more, urbanized areas of 50,000 or more*

*There are some additional requirements regarding population size, population density and specified urban characteristics

distribution of population by size of village town or city india 2001
Distribution of Population by Size, of Village, Town, or City, India, 2001

2001 Census of India

slide22

The “Demographic Divide” in Three States of India

Uttar PradeshBiharKerala

Population 2001 (millions) 166 83 32

Population 2010 200 99 34

Literacy Male/Female (%) 69/42 60/33 94/88 Lifetime Births per Woman 2007 3.9 3.9 1.7

Modern Contraceptive Prev. ’05-06 29 29 58

Traditional Contra. Prev. ’05-06 14 5 11

Urban Population (%) 21 11 26

Percent of Population < Age 15 41 42 26

Households with Electricity (%) 32 10 70

Households in Permanent-type House 53 41 68

Households with Television 25 9 39 Households with Car, Jeep, or Van 2.2 0.9 4.0 Households with Two-wheeler 3.6 10.4 10.0

Households in One-room House 30 43 11

Percent of Children <3 Underweight 47 58 29

2001 Census of India, National Family Health Survey-3, Sample Registration System, PRB projections

households by annual income groups india 2001 2002
Households by Annual Income Groups, India, 2001-2002

National Council of Applied Economic Research, Delhi, 2005

slide24

Annual Net Immigration, 1990 - 2009, Selected Countries

Thousands

National Statistical Offices

total fertility rates selected eu 15 countries and the u s 1960 2008
Total Fertility Rates, Selected EU 15 Countries and the U.S., 1960 - 2008

Children per woman

Council of Europe, Recent demographic developments in Europe and national statistics websites

slide30

Total Fertility Rates, Selected New EU Countries, 1960 - 2008

Children per woman

Council of Europe, Recent demographic developments in Europe and national statistics websites

slide31

Population of Japan by Age and Sex, 1 December, 2009

Age

Females

Males

Millions

Japan Statistics Bureau

slide32

Population of Russia by Age and Sex, 1 January, 2009

Age

Females

Males

Millions

State Statistical Bureau (GOSKOMSTAT)

average p e rsonal ideal number of children 2001 and 2006 females ages 15 24
Average “Personal Ideal“ Number of Children, 2001 and 2006, Females Ages 15 - 24

Eurobarometers, 56.2 and 65.1

slide34
Percentage of Women, Ages 18-34 Giving “None” or “One” as Their Ideal Number of Children, Selected Countries of Europe. 2001

Eurobarometer, 56.2

slide37

U.S. Hispanic Population by Age and Sex, 2006

Age

Males

Females

Percent

U.S. Census Bureau

the association between poverty and fertility 2007
The Association Between Poverty and Fertility, 2007

% Living below $2 per day

Average number of children per woman

Population Reference Bureau, Population and Economic Development Linkages 2007

the association between population growth rate and gdp growth
The Association Between Population Growth Rate and GDP Growth

Annual population growth rate, 1975 - 2004 (%)

Average annual GDP per capita growth rate, 1975 - 2004 (%)

Population Reference Bureau, Population and Economic Development Linkages 2007

slide42

Thank You!

carlh@prb.org