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Predictive modeling competitions
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  1. Predictive modeling competitions making data science a sport Anthony Goldbloom CEO, Kaggle e-mail anthony.goldbloom@kaggle.com twitter @antgoldbloom Photo by mikebaird, www.flickr.com/photos/mikebaird

  2. Motivation • Why compete? • How it works • R on Kaggle • The Heritage Health Prize

  3. Global competitions Predicting HIV viral load Competition closes 77% 1½ weeks 70.8% State of the art 70%

  4. Crowdsourcing Mismatch between those with data andthose with the skills to analyse it

  5. Countless approaches. Hard to know which will work 5

  6. Additional slides Not MIT, not SAS … UoL?

  7. Tourism Forecasting Competition Forecast Error(MASE) Existing model Aug 9 2 weeks later 1 month later Competition End

  8. Chess Ratings Competition Existing model (ELO) Error Rate(RMSE) Aug 4 1 month later 2 months later Today

  9. Our User Base

  10. Users apply different techniques • neural networks • logistic regression • support vector machine • decision trees • ensemble methods • adaBoost • Bayesian networks • genetic algorithms • random forest • Monte Carlo methods • principal component analysis • Kalman filter • evolutionary fuzzy modeling

  11. Motivation • Why compete? • How it works • R on Kaggle • The Heritage Health Prize

  12. Why Participants Compete 2 1 More fun than Sudoku Clean, Real world data Professional Reputation & Experience 4 3 Interactions with experts in related fields Prizes

  13. Motivation • Why compete? • How it works • R on Kaggle • The Heritage Health Prize

  14. Competitions are judged based on predictive accuracy

  15. Competition Mechanics Competitions are judged on objective criteria

  16. Motivation • Why compete? • How it works • R on Kaggle • The Heritage Health Prize

  17. R on Kaggle

  18. R on Kaggle among academics

  19. R on Kaggle among Americans

  20. Who Uses R and How

  21. Motivation • Why compete? • How it works • R on Kaggle • The Heritage Health Prize

  22. Mmm… how do I put this into R?

  23. Some SQL Magic

  24. Gives us a flat record

  25. Voila, an entry!

  26. What could the world’s bestanalysts find in your data? e-mail anthony.goldbloom@kaggle.com phone +61438400053 Photo by gidzy, www.flickr.com/photos/gidzy