Actuarial Predictive Analytics Modeling - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Actuarial Predictive Analytics Modeling
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Actuarial Predictive Analytics Modeling

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  1. Predictive Modeling for Actuaries By Claude Penland, Associate of the Casualty Actuarial Society www.PredNews.com

  2. Our plan • This presentation will provide eight examples of strong industry presentations and articles where actuaries can apply predictive modeling to life insurance, property and casualty insurance and health insurance data.

  3. Example 1 • At the Society of Actuaries’ Annual Meeting, a Fellow of the Society of Actuaries discussed Predictive Modeling in Life Insurance. • Topics included generalized linear modeling, mortality analysis, policyholder behavior and stochastic modeling.

  4. Example 2 • At the Actuaries’ Club of Boston and Hartford/Springfield Joint Meeting, a Chartered Financial Analyst / Fellow of the Society of Actuaries applied Predictive Modeling to Variable Annuity Lapse Rates.

  5. Example 3 • Two Fellows of the Casualty Actuarial Society presented to the SoCal Actuarial Club on Predictive Modeling for Property-Casualty Insurance. • This is a substantial presentation on predictive modeling strategies, methodologies and techniques.

  6. Example 4 • Consultants at Towers Watson have written Multiple Dimensions of Pricing Sophistication, which describes five dimensions of property and casualty insurance rating sophistication. • These are pricing strategy, competitive sensing, rating plan design, modeling approach and data.

  7. Example 5 • PointRight employees recently wrote on Building and Maintaining a Profitable Captive Insurer with Predictive Modeling.

  8. Example 6 • At the Casualty Actuarial Society’s Ratemaking Seminar, a consulting actuary presented on Data Preparation for Predictive Modeling, and described data requirements, types of data variables and various data quality issues.

  9. Example 7 • For the health actuary, More Predictive Modeling of Total Healthcare Costs Using Pharmacy Claims Data: Adherence Dimension and Boosted Regression covers pharmaceutical claims predictive methods. • It was presented at the American Society of Health Economists Conference.

  10. Example 8 • In Building a Predictive Model: An Example of a Product Recommendation Engine, Intelligent Mining describes a predictive analytics algorithm that could be applied to building an insurance product recommendation engine.

  11. Wrap Up • Visit www.PredNews.com for the latest news and trends in predictive analytics and modeling • Thank you!