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predictive modeling for actuaries

Predictive Modeling for Actuaries

By Claude Penland, Associate of the

Casualty Actuarial Society

our plan
Our plan
  • This presentation will provide eight examples of strong industry presentations and articles where actuaries can apply predictive modeling to life insurance, property and casualty insurance and health insurance data.
example 1
Example 1
  • At the Society of Actuaries’ Annual Meeting, a Fellow of the Society of Actuaries discussed Predictive Modeling in Life Insurance.
  • Topics included generalized linear modeling, mortality analysis, policyholder behavior and stochastic modeling.
example 2
Example 2
  • At the Actuaries’ Club of Boston and Hartford/Springfield Joint Meeting, a Chartered Financial Analyst / Fellow of the Society of Actuaries applied Predictive Modeling to Variable Annuity Lapse Rates.
example 3
Example 3
  • Two Fellows of the Casualty Actuarial Society presented to the SoCal Actuarial Club on Predictive Modeling for Property-Casualty Insurance.
  • This is a substantial presentation on predictive modeling strategies, methodologies and techniques.
example 4
Example 4
  • Consultants at Towers Watson have written Multiple Dimensions of Pricing Sophistication, which describes five dimensions of property and casualty insurance rating sophistication.
  • These are pricing strategy, competitive sensing, rating plan design, modeling approach and data.
example 5
Example 5
  • PointRight employees recently wrote on Building and Maintaining a Profitable Captive Insurer with Predictive Modeling.
example 6
Example 6
  • At the Casualty Actuarial Society’s Ratemaking Seminar, a consulting actuary presented on Data Preparation for Predictive Modeling, and described data requirements, types of data variables and various data quality issues.
example 7
Example 7
  • For the health actuary, More Predictive Modeling of Total Healthcare Costs Using Pharmacy Claims Data: Adherence Dimension and Boosted Regression covers pharmaceutical claims predictive methods.
  • It was presented at the American Society of Health Economists Conference.
example 8
Example 8
  • In Building a Predictive Model: An Example of a Product Recommendation Engine, Intelligent Mining describes a predictive analytics algorithm that could be applied to building an insurance product recommendation engine.
wrap up
Wrap Up
  • Visit for the latest news and trends in predictive analytics and modeling
  • Thank you!