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The Time-Predictable Recurrence Model

The Time-Predictable Recurrence Model. The original models (Shimazaki & Nakata 1980) Complications and pitfalls (Thatcher 1984) Modern examples Relevance to Indonesia. Schematic Recurrence Models. Periodic Time-Predictable Slip-Predictable.

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The Time-Predictable Recurrence Model

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  1. The Time-Predictable Recurrence Model • The original models (Shimazaki & Nakata 1980) • Complications and pitfalls (Thatcher 1984) • Modern examples • Relevance to Indonesia

  2. Schematic Recurrence Models Periodic Time-Predictable Slip-Predictable

  3. Japanese Examples historic

  4. Japanese Examples C14 dated marine terraces historic

  5. Japanese Examples C14 dated marine terraces historic C14 dated corals

  6. Japanese Examples Interplate (megathrust) Intraplate (“continental wedge”); some permanent deformation

  7. Complications • Postseismic transients • Short-term (few years) • Long-term (decades) • Permanent deformation • Coseismic • Interseismic

  8. Postseismic & Permanent Deformation Updip fault splaying • Not well constrained for most megathrust systems • Indonesia displays several of these effects ? Aseismic downdip slip Asthenosphere relaxation

  9. (Perfettini et al, JGR, 2005) Displacements relative to South America before and after the Mw 8.4 2001 Peru Earthquake

  10. (Perfettini et al, 2005) The persistent seaward motion of ARE implies a significant ‘viscous’ contribution to postseismic deformation. We deduce: Vi/Vf = 1.7, hence TM= 0.2 T20yr and tr = 3.7 yr

  11. SAMP LEWK 90 days 5 days 30 days • Time evolution of postseismic displacements is consistent • with rate-strengthening frictional sliding. PHUK UMLH Chlieh et al, 2007

  12. Postseismic deformationover 11 months

  13. ~1370 ~1600 1797 & 1833 Paleoseismic records Slip predictableTime-predictable or neither? Bulasat Elevation relative to modern sea level Simanganya Years (AD)

  14. ~1370 ~1600 1797 & 1833 Probably closer to Time-predictable Bulasat Elevation relative to modern sea level Simanganya Years (AD)

  15. Wrightwood Example • No time- or slip-predictability on the scale of single RIs • May have multi-cycle time-predictability • May not be representative of SAF as a whole (Weldon et al. 2004)

  16. Summary • Monitoring future postseismic deformation through cGPS will yield more complete picture of the seismic cycle • Complications to model are important for deeper understanding, but don’t affect the first-order model fit • More important: compare several locations along the megathrust

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