Climate change and conflict Russian International Studies Association, Moscow, 26 September 2008

1. Climate change and conflictRussian International Studies Association, Moscow, 26 September 2008 Nils Petter Gleditsch Centre for the Study of Civil War (CSCW), International peace Research Institute, Oslo (PRIO) & Department of Sociology and Political Science, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim (NTNU) President, International Studies Association

2. Armed conflicts 1946–2007

3. Battledeaths, 1946–2005 Battle deaths, 1900–2005

4. The growth of the liberal factors

5. Enter climate change:Are we heading towards disaster? • Future scenario of warring states and massive social disturbance as a result of climate change (Schwart & Randall, 2003; think-tank report for the Pentagon) • Climate change can act as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the most volatile regions of the world and this is a major national security challenge for the US (CNA, 2007; statement by 11 retired US generals and admirals) • The impacts of climate change, such as crop failure and lingering drought, sea-level changes, and river basin degradation go to the heart of the security agenda (Foreign Minister Margaret Beckett in the UN Security Council, April 2007) • Climate change is an “all-encompassing threat” to human health, to global food supply, and to peace and security (Kofi Annan, 2006) • Darfur is the first of many climate wars (Jan Egeland and Ban Ki-Moon on various occasions in 2007-08) • Climate change “may induce large-scale migration and lead to greater competition for the earth’s resources”, which may result in “increased danger of violent conflicts and wars, within and between states” (Ole Danbolt Mjøs, Chair of the Norwegian Nobel Committee, 2007)

6. Global warming and armed conflict, 1946–2006 Global warming and armed conflict, 1946–89 Temperature deviation from global mean, 1951–80. Source: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), Columbia University Frequency of armed conflict. Source: UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict Dataset.

7. Physical consequences of climate change • Melting of glaciers and polar ice • Sea-level rise • Changes in precipitation • Increased natural hazards (floods, droughts, hurricanes)

8. Possible social consequences • Increased vulnerability to physical environment • Increased exposure to health hazards • Destruction of traditional livelihoods • Extensive environmental migration • Decreased predictability = Security issue by an extended definition Warrants the attention of the Security Council

9. But it is an important factor in future conflict? • Disconnect between NGO, politicians, and think-tank literature and peer-reviewed research • Somewhat more cautious studies from defense and environment agencies • IPCC · science: peer-reviewed · social implications: more questionable · conflict: flimsy sources • The Stern report hints at conflict; same weakness • There is very little peer-reviewed research on the issue

10. Possible pathways to conflict • Sea-level rise  migration  conflict in host areas Drought • Flooding resource competition  local conflict Hurricanes lower state capacity  rebel opportunity Strong version of the neomalthusian model: resource scarcity  conflict

11. Counterarguments to the conflict scenarios • The link between scarcity and conflict is almost completely limited to case studies • Statistical, comparative analyses have not converged on a robust association between renewable resource scarcity and armed conflict • Predictions of new conflicts are dependent on general relationships • Migration  conflict in host areas, but probably as a result of ’imported conflict’ • Analyses of disasters and conflict suggest a connection, but mostly for geological disasters, and mechanisms unclear • And there are exceptions, such as Aceh • Impending scarcities are often handled by substitution, innovation, cooperation, and the market • Water literature has moved from ’water wars’ to ’water cooperation’ • Climate change is generally a slow process; this points to adaptation

12. The 'bottom billion' The 'Bottom Billion' Armedconflicts in 2006 - and armed conflict in 2006

13. Vicious cycle? • Climate change  conflict  climate change • War has a negative impact on the environment • Nuclear winter • Armed forces major user of fossile fuels • However, one study shows: war  lower CO2 emissions • Gleditsch/Cappelen/Bjerkholt (1994): Disarmament  lower CO2 emissions • On the whole, probably less important

14. Priorities • Disaggregate the climate-conflict debate • Couple models of climate changes to models of conflict • Collect better data on violence (one-sided, non-state) • Collect geo-referenced data • Look at interactions between climate change and political and economic factors • Balance negative and positive effects (e.g. food) • Integrate consequences of climate changes with other economic and social changes • Calculate costs of reversing climate change vs. mitigation • Focus on the most important consequences

15. Conclusions • Climate change is a major challenge • Climate change is a security issue • There is little evidence to date that armed conflict is an important consequence • Analysis does not depend on the causes of climate change • But countermeasures do • Policy measures also depend on the consequences • More research on climate change and conflict is a priority • The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report should include conflict