NCAS-Climate Overview NCAS-Climate: • Carries out research into climate change and variability, motivated by the need to understand how the climate system will evolve over the coming century. • Recognises that climate varies naturally, even in the absence of anthropogenic influences, and that the ability to predict those variations on monthly up to decadal timescales could have significant societal benefits. • Develops higher resolution models to address the challenges of predicting regional climate variations, especially in rainfall and high impact weather.
NCAS Monsoon Research: Addressing key issues and gaps in current knowledge • Interannual variability and predictability of the Monsoon-ENSO system and influence of model biases • Decadal changes in ENSO and monsoon-ENSO teleconnections. Are they due to climate change? • Effects of global warming on the mean monsoon and its variability, including active-break cycles and the incidence of extreme rainfall events • Role of the Indian Ocean in the evolution and predictability of monsoon active-break cycles • Simulating high impact weather over India
ENSO-Monsoon Teleconnections Summer All India Rainfall (AIR) lag-correlated with Nino-3 SSTs Turner et al. 2005, QJRMS
HadCM3: Decadal variability in ENSO-Monsoon Teleconnections 21-year All India Rainfall and Nino-3 correlations
Climate Modelling at Weather Resolution on the Earth Simulator
Understanding and parametrising organised convection (CASCADE) 2007 Monsoon in full flight • Addresses fundamental problem of representing organised tropical convection in climate and NWP models • Major project in cloud system resolving modelling using 1km resolution over Indo-Pacific domain. • Focus on understanding up-scale energy cascade from individual cloud systems to large-scale intraseasonal oscillations
Building stronger collaborations • Facilitating exchange of models and data. • Improved access to databases and on-line data analysis tools. Is bandwidth a problem? • Better coordination of model information services to enable more effective up-take of UK models in India e.g. web-based tutorials on how to run codes and design experiments • Greater opportunities for training in climate change science • Joint postgraduate courses, including shared PhD opportunities (e.g. joint supervision with time in partner institution) • Joint summerschools targeted at climate change modelling and prediction • Better tools for collaboration: Exploiting e-Science • Video conferencing, Access grid, shared workspaces