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Climate change integrated assessment methodology for cross- sectoral adaptation and vulnerability in Europe. Identifying vulnerability hotspots using the Integrated Assessment Platform. For further information contact Rob Dunford (email: Robert.Dunford@ouce.ox.ac.uk )

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Climate change integrated assessment methodology for cross-sectoral adaptation and vulnerability in Europe

Identifying vulnerability hotspots using the

Integrated Assessment Platform

For further information contact Rob Dunford(email: Robert.Dunford@ouce.ox.ac.uk)

or visit the project website (www.climsave.eu)

Funded under the European Commission

Seventh Framework Programme

Contract Number: 244031

standardisation
Standardisation

Expert-based system developed to convert datasets to standardised 0-1 index.

0.0-0.2 : Very low

0.2-0.4 : Low

0.4-0.6 : Medium

0.6-0.8 : High

0.8-1.0 : Very high

With reference to European and world max/min values.

For some variables (life expectancy) values should already be “very high” across the board. For others there should be more spread.

the four capitals at baseline
The four capitals at baseline

HUMAN CAPITAL

SOCIAL CAPITAL

FINANCIAL CAPITAL

MANUFACTURED CAPITAL

scenario coping capacities
Scenario coping capacities

2050 Max

2020 Max

Current Max

Current Min

2020 Min

2050 Min

coping capacity for scenarios
Coping capacity for scenarios

Riders on

the storm

We are

the world

Should I stay

or should I go

Icarus

2020s

2050s

vulnerability

?

Vulnerability

From sectoral experts

From coping capacity method

From IA Platform

mapping vulnerability
Mapping vulnerability

Biodiversity

Vulnerability

2020s

Biodiversity

Vulnerability

2050s

aggregate vulnerability
Aggregate vulnerability

Extreme climate scenario

(GFCM21, High emissions)

Icarus

socio-economic scenario

Moderate climate scenario

(CSMK3, Low emissions)

We are the world

socio-economic scenario

conclusions
Conclusions
  • The CLIMSAVE approach to vulnerability assessment:
    • is replicable and transferable;
    • allows the integration of the concepts of capitals and coping capacity with stakeholder-derived scenarios; and
    • produces patterns of coping capacity that might be expected for the socio-economic scenarios.
  • The aggregate vulnerability hotspot maps suggest that human well-being is most at risk from water stress and biodiversity loss in southern Europe, and from the lack of food provision and land use diversity in northern Europe.