POLITICAL & ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR INVESTMENT IN EGYPT

1. POLITICAL & ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR INVESTMENT IN EGYPT

2. Egypt’s Political Future:Challenges and Prospects Solava IbrahimLecturer in International Development The University of Manchesterand Affiliated Lecturer, University of Cambridge

3. What are the Political Challenges that Egypt Faces and How are They being Addressed? • Two Regimes…Two Revolutions …

4. 1 &2 What Went Wrong? How to Create a More Conducive Political Environment For Investment in Egypt? 4

5. Security Threats – turning a blind eye on jihadist terrorist groups in Sinai; the Palestinian tunnels Major Military Operations in Sinai Destruction of Illegal Tunnels Reduction in Smuggled Petrol – addressing the Energy Crisis Identification and Arrest of Terrorist Suspects (e.g. Aug 2012 killings) Ongoing Challenge Challenges and Prospects 5

6. Foreign Policy Crises – with Gulf countries except Qatar; Ethiopia over the Renaissance Dam Support by Arab States Resuming Negotiations with Ethiopia Correcting International Views on the 30 June Revolution Military Aid withheld Challenges and Prospects 6

7. Democratisation -Presidential Decree; Misuse of democratic system, ballot box as an end. The Constitution without national consensus The Committee of the 50 and Revising Controversial Articles Executive Power between President and PM Notions of Citizenship, Equality and Transparency Challenges and Prospects 7

8. Post-Revolutionary Parliament – focus on ‘trivial’ issues rather than addressing urgent public demands. Preparations for new Parliamentary Elections Economic Agenda as Top Priority Revision of Laws to Encourage Investments Challenges and Prospects 8

9. Challenges and Prospects Creating Enemies – Alienating Judiciary, Media, Military, Police, Copts and other Islamists Parties Power Grab – ‘Brotherhoodization’ Power Sharing: President from Judiciary; PM technocrat; Military and Police cooperating on security front Creating a Wider Coalition of Diverse Political Forces Merit rather than Political Affiliation 9

10. Role of Religion in Politics – threatened notion of citizenship; hatred speeches against Copts and Shiite; sectarian violence Participation of Al Nour– NOT an Islamist vs. Secular Division as MB posit it. Tendency to Ban Political Parties on Religious Grounds in new constitution End of the ‘Pious Politician’ myth Challenges and Prospects 10

11. The MB Rhetoric was not Enough No Tangible Changes were Felt No Real Commitment to Democratisation 11

12. 3 A Glimpse of Hope? – Egypt’s Political Future 12

13. A Glimpse of Hope? • End of MB Myth? • Weakened organisational, financial and mobilization power • Violence as a Strategy of Resistance? Delegitimizing social care work • banning MB activities; all organisations operating within the law • Accountability for Violence: • Trials of MB leaders inciting Violence • Investigation of Rab’a and release of arbitrarily arrested without charges • National Reconciliation: • Military as ONE actor • New Initiative by ‘moderate’ MB leaders • MB Youth meeting with Interim President • Tamarod (Rebellion) participating in next elections

14. Many Political Challenges Lie Ahead … But! Egypt is on the Right Track … 14

15. Thank You

16. Questions or Comments ?