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Enhancing Probabilistic Hazard Forecasts: A Collaborative Approach for Real-Time Ensemble Predictions

This project focuses on improving probabilistic hazard information (PHI) through the development of a real-time, convection-allowing ensemble designed for forecasting severe weather threats. Collaborating closely with SPC and utilizing a small team, we aim to create reliable forecasts with confidence metrics for short-term events spanning hours to days. The project builds on successful models and past experiences, emphasizing iterative progress in ensemble design, visualization, and data mining. This initiative aims to provide continuous and reliable forecasts, enhancing forecaster engagement and regional preparedness.

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Enhancing Probabilistic Hazard Forecasts: A Collaborative Approach for Real-Time Ensemble Predictions

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  1. FACETs: Forecasting A Continuum of Environmental Threats Outlooks Warnings Seasonal Watches 30-60 Minutes Hours Time Months Days Event State Space Regional Local NSSL Contributions • Continuous, reliable Probabilistic Hazard • Information (PHI) from seasons to minutes Adapted from Dr. Heather Lazrus (SSWIM) and LansRothfusz Courtesy Dave Stenrud

  2. Convective-scale Warn-on-Forecast Vision: Probabilistic convective-scale analysis and forecast system • Updated frequently and providing confidence information with focus on 0 to 1 h time frame

  3. Develop a small (~8 member) realtime, CONUS scale, convection-allowing ensemble – no data assimilation, focus on 12-36h (SPC Day1) forecast period NSSL/SPCRealtime CA-Ensemble Plans (pending HPC allocation) Close, daily collaboration with SPC to promote forecaster engagement and iterative progress on ensemble design, data mining, visualization, and post-processing (building on success of NSSL-WRF) Collaborate with EMC, GSD, and perhaps others to strategize about ensemble design, relevance to HRRRE from a technical-design and forecaster-readiness perspective Why NSSL and SPC? - Long history of contributions to ensemble prediction systems - HWT, strong R2O and O2R track record - Lessons learned from working with CAPS on CA- EPSs (2007-current)

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