Alan F. Hamlet Edward L. Miles Amy K. Snover

1. Designing a Regional Integrated Climate Research Program for the Pacific Northwest: Evolving Research Strategies in the University of Washington Climate Impacts Group JISAO Center for Science in the Earth System Climate Impacts Group and Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Washington October, 2003 Alan F. Hamlet Edward L. Miles Amy K. Snover

2. People in the Climate Impacts Group PI: Edward L. Miles (human dimensions) Principals: Robert Francis (aquatic ecosystems) Dennis P. Lettenmaier (hydrology and water resources) Nathan Mantua (climate dynamics) Philip W. Mote (education and outreach) Richard Palmer (water resources management) David L. Peterson (forests) Amy K. Snover (integration and synthesis)

3. The Climate Impacts Group: The Big Picture SECTORS • Climate Variability • past variations and their impacts • ability of institutions to respond to extremes • Climate Change • regional consequences of global warming • adaptation/vulnerability SCOPE of WORK

4. climate Climate Impact Science The study of how climate, natural resources, and human socio-economic systems affect each other CLIMATE IMPACTS SCIENCE socio- economic systems natural resources

5. ResearchApproach • Understand regional climate variability • Analyze impacts of climate variations on natural and human systems • Investigate institutional responses to climatic stresses • Assess societal sensitivity, adaptability and vulnerability to climate variability • Use evidence from retrospective studies as basis for projecting sensitivity, adaptability and vulnerability to climate change

6. To Begin: A Simple Vertical Integration Framework with a One-Dimensional Horizontal Linkage to Climate. Hydrology and Water Resources Climate Forests Aquatic Ecosystems Coastal Systems Human Dimensions Research Human Dimensions Research was an integrated component in each sector.

7. Identify Global/Regional Climate Drivers Pacific Decadal Oscillation El Niño Southern Oscillation A history of the PDO A history of ENSO warm warm cool 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

8. Assemble and Analyze Observational Data Sets Annual Flow at The Dalles 1858-1998 5 events 2 events

9. Identify Broad-Based Functional Relationships Cool Cool Warm Warm

10. Extend Data Sets to Paleoclimatic Time Scales red = observed, blue = reconstructed Source: Gedalof, Z., D.L. Peterson and Nathan J. Mantua. (in review). Columbia River Flow and Drought Since 1750. Submitted to Journal of the American Water Resources Association.

11. Temperature Reconstructions from Geoduck Growth Rings 1835-1998 Mean of four series at Protection Island Are Strom, UW

12. ColSim Reservoir Model Construct Analytical Tools VIC Hydrology Model

13. Construct Forecasting Systems Ensemble Streamflow Forecast ENSO Climate Forecast PDO Run Initialized Hydrologic Model Select Temperature and Precipitation Data from Historic Record Associated with Forecast Climate Category

14. Fall Winter Spring Summer Jack returns Plankton surveys Harvest & allocation decisions(February) Fishery Run-size forecast (using SST forecast) Run-size forecast (using obs’d conditions) Forecasting Salmon Returns Oregon coho salmon survival Coastal Ocean Conditions Sea surface temperatures Sea level Nearshore winds

15. Project Impacts Forwards in Time VIC Simulations of April 1 Average Snow Water Equivalent for Composite Scenarios (average of four GCM scenarios) 2020s 2040s Current Climate Snow Water Equivalent (mm)

16. Examine the Response of Complex Systems The Northwest Salmon Crisis: commercial landings in the Columbia River 1863-1993 30 Millions of pounds landed 20 10

17. Evaluate Institutional Components and Characteristics Mapping institutional frameworks Identify players Characterize laws, treaties, rules and constraints Determine interactions Analyze individual institutions Ability of Managers And Policy Makers To Respond to Climate Information And Forecasts Education Outreach Workshops Human Dimensions Research

18. Work with stakeholders

19. Create Functional Linkages Between Academic Research and Management Agencies Climate research Formal planning exercises Hydrologic studies Monitoring Integrated assessment Infrastructure Adaptation strategies Management Academic Research Resource Management

20. Planning for Climate Change: Water Resources in the Columbia basin Water policy workshops have highlighted the need to inject climate change information into existing river basin planning activities and to provide free access to streamflow scenarios. Partners: Northwest Power Planning Council Idaho Dept of Water Resources City of Portland Oregon Water Dept. Seattle Public Utility www.ce.washington.edu/~hamleaf/climate_change_streamflows/CR_cc.htm

21. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS on WEST-SIDE MUNICIPAL SYSTEMS: • Decreased spring streamflow • Increased demands • Regional planning & infrastructure investments Planning for climate change: municipal water supply FUTURE WATER DEMAND IN PORTLAND (OR): Regional growth: +40 mgd Climate change: +20 mgd

22. Synthesize the Vertical Research Findings • A Few Examples: • PNW Regional Assessment Report (Mote et al. 1999) • (Part of the National Assessment of Climate Variability and Change) • Integrated Assessment of Columbia River Water Resources (Miles et al. 2000) • Transboundary Issues in the Columbia River Basin (Hamlet, 2003) • Fisheries Management Applications (Mantua and Francis, 2003) • Ongoing Workshops on Water Management, Water Policy, Fisheries Management, Forests Resources, Coastal Systems in the Context of Climate Variability and Climate Change

23. A Vision for the Future: Increasing Horizontal & Vertical Integration Objective: To develop a capability to answer questions from policymakers concerning impacts and policies at the different time/space scales at which climate, natural ecosystems, and human social systems interact.

24. One-Dimensional Horizontal Integration Hydrology and Water Resources Climate Forests Aquatic Ecosystems Coastal Systems

25. Multi-Dimensional Horizontal Integration Hydrologic Cycle Forests Rivers Global Climate Drivers Water Resources Management Estuaries Salmon Coastal Ocean Open Ocean Fisheries Management

26. Focus on Subsets of the Multi-Dimensional Problem Hydrologic Cycle Forests Rivers Global Climate Drivers Water Resources Management Estuaries Salmon Coastal Ocean Open Ocean Fisheries Management

27. Conclusions: A simple organizational structure based on a one-dimensional “horizontal” linkage between climate research and a group of “vertically integrated” research teams in several traditional academic disciplines has proven to be a useful one for the Climate Impacts Group. This research strategy has laid the foundation for future work with increasing horizontal integration between sectors. Research on the capacity of existing institutions identified important research needs and fundamentally altered the CIG’s strategy for education and outreach. CIG Partnerships with regional stakeholders has been a very productive avenue in the context of creating linkages between academia and management agencies, and in the process of developing and refining pilot climate forecast applications.