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  1. Real-Time Applications of a CMAQ-Related Photochemical ModelCommunity Modeling and Analysis System Workshop, US EPA, Research Triangle Park, NCOct 21-23, 2002byJohn N. McHenry, Jeff Vukovich, Carlie Coats, Ted Smith, Don Olerud, and Aaron Sims The Environmental Modeling Center at MCNC@ the North Carolina Supercomputing CenterResearch Triangle Park, NC 27709-2889Contact: mchenry@emc.mcnc.org

  2. Outline • Abstract • History of Air Quality Prediction at MCNC • Operational Model Overview • Computational Forecast Domains • Forecast Product Overview • New England Air Quality Study 2002 • Preliminary Results for the SE US • Highlights from Operational MM5 Evaluation • Conclusions CMAS Workshop, US EPA, Oct 21-23, 2002. RTP,NC

  3. Abstract • For the 5th year, MCNC’s Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) has run an operational numerical air quality prediction (NAQP) system in real-time. • The forecast system uses the Multiscale Air Quality Simulation Platform—Real Time (MAQSIP-RT) air quality model. • MAQSIP-RT derives from the original CMAQ prototype co-developed by MCNC and EPA/NOAA-ORD in the 1990’s. • Forecasts were produced in support of NOAA-based research toward an operational air quality forecast system: the New England Air Quality Study (NEAQS). • Forecasts were also produced for a variety of state-based operational forecast clients (North Carolina, Alabama, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Texas) • Preliminary results are encouraging and suggest that MAQSIP-RT is an important new tool in understanding the evolution of real-time air quality. CMAS Workshop, US EPA, Oct 21-23, 2002. RTP,NC

  4. A Little History: Environmental Modeling at MCNC • MCNC began as the Microelectronics Center of North Carolina in Research Triangle Park, NC • MCNC is a private, non-profit institution: “bridging the worlds of science and commerce, providing concepts and transferring research ideas into the marketplace” • Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) staff of 25 meteorologists, atmospheric chemists, and HPCC experts • The EMC is housed at the North Carolina Supercomputing Center, which is on the MCNC campus • The EMC historically maintains a close working relationship with EPA R&D/NOAA-ORD, RTP Office, especially in the area of photochemical model development, application, analysis, and evaluation (e.g. CMAQ and MAQSIP) CMAS Workshop, US EPA, Oct 21-23, 2002. RTP,NC

  5. A Little History: EMC at MCNC (cont) • Environmental Modeling Center Staff and Hardware located in the Supercomputing Building CMAS Workshop, US EPA, Oct 21-23, 2002. RTP,NC

  6. A Little History: EMC at MCNC (cont) • Supercomputing Building (North Carolina Supercomputing Center) CMAS Workshop, US EPA, Oct 21-23, 2002. RTP,NC

  7. Operational Model Overview • Models used: • MAQSIP-RT Photochemical Model • New in 2002: Corrected earlier tendency toward ozone over-prediction on marginal air quality days, where partly cloudy skies have a significant influence, by improving treatment of cloud attenuation effects. • New in 2002: Activated AIRNOW ozone monitor data assimilation system to initialize MAQSIP-RT • Sparse-Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE) • BEIS-3,NET-99 Point/Area, Mobile-5 • All emissions online including point-source specific plume rise • PSU/NCAR MM5V3.4 initialized with NCEP/Eta Analysis • Computing: dedicated 24p O3800; expansion planned in Spring 2003 CMAS Workshop, US EPA, Oct 21-23, 2002. RTP,NC

  8. Operational Model Overview • How MAQSIP-RT differs from CMAQ: System Aspects • Ozone data-assimilation using AIRNOW monitor data • Robust/redundant model initialization in real-time • Automated generation of analysis/forecast products • Fast enough to meet operational forecast deadlines • Automated error-recovery • High-temporal resolution input of meteorological forecast data using the MCPL output module (see Coats, Section 7, Paper 4: MCPL: An I/O API Output Module for MM5, Wednesday, October 23, 9;30AM) • Highly configurable nesting strategy CMAS Workshop, US EPA, Oct 21-23, 2002. RTP,NC

  9. Operational Model Overview • How MAQSIP-RT differs from CMAQ: Model Aspects • Sophisticated optimized cloud package (KF-deep, McHenry-shallow, resolved, sub-grid-layer all interacting simultaneously) • Sophisticated photolysis • Online spectral calculation of clear-sky “J” • Advanced cloud-optics interactions with “J” • Online calculation of fractional land-cover-based dry deposition velocities • Specialized treatment of shoreline-grid-cell PBL characteristics • Optimized advection, diffusion, and QSSA chemical solvers • Fully parallelized using OpenMP • Latitude/elevation/month lateral BC’s for coarse-most grid • High Temporal Resolution Time-stepped BC’s for all nests • Latitude/month diffusive top boundary condition for all nests CMAS Workshop, US EPA, Oct 21-23, 2002. RTP,NC

  10. Computational Forecast Domains • MM5 Domains: 45/15/5 km CMAS Workshop, US EPA, Oct 21-23, 2002. RTP,NC

  11. Computational Forecast Domains • MAQSIP-RT grids: windows into MM5 domains • Example: 45km East-of-Rockies Grid Showing Terrain Height 45km MAQSIP East-of-Rockies Grid CMAS Workshop, US EPA, Oct 21-23, 2002. RTP,NC

  12. Computational Forecast Domains • MAQSIP-RT grids: windows into MM5 domains • Example: 15km NE Corridor Grid Showing Terrain Height 15km MAQSIP NE Corridor Grid CMAS Workshop, US EPA, Oct 21-23, 2002. RTP,NC

  13. Computational Forecast Domains • MAQSIP-RT grids: windows into MM5 domains • Example: 15km SE US Grid Showing Terrain Height 15km MAQSIP SE US Grid CMAS Workshop, US EPA, Oct 21-23, 2002. RTP,NC

  14. Forecast Product Overview • Forecast Products (Website Delivered): • MAQSIP-RT Nested Model Runs • 48-hour 45km-scale forecasts (Eastern 2/3 of US) • 24-hour 15km-scale forecasts (NE, SE, Texas) • 14- or 24-hour 5km-scale forecasts (NH, Birmingham,Houston) • Animated Forecast Maps • Chemical (MAQSIP-RT) Parameters • Surface with Wind Vectors: • Ozone • CO • NOx, NOy • Upper Air with Wind Vectors: • Ozone CMAS Workshop, US EPA, Oct 21-23, 2002. RTP,NC

  15. Forecast Product Overview • Forecast Products (Continued): • Animated Forecast Maps: MM5 • Meteorological (60hr fcsts twice daily) • Surface: • Precip (Convective/Non-convective) • Isotachs/Vectors • RH/T/Vectors • MSLP; 2m Td, T • UPA • 300/500/850mb heights/vectors/isotachs • 500mb Abs Vort • 700mb Height/RH • Other • Convective Cloud Tops; PBL Height • SkewT’s at various stations CMAS Workshop, US EPA, Oct 21-23, 2002. RTP,NC

  16. Forecast Product Overview • Forecast Products (Continued): • Static Forecast Maps: MAQSIP-RT • Peak 1-hour Average Ozone colored according to EPA categorical forecast codes (green/yellow/orange/red/purple) • Peak 8-hour Average Ozone colored according to EPA categorical forecast codes (green/yellow/orange/red/purple) • Delivery Schedule • 12z, 45/15km grids: Peak 1-hour/8-hour maps complete by ~1:15pm EDT; animations later • 00z, 45/15/5km grids: All products by 4:30am EDT CMAS Workshop, US EPA, Oct 21-23, 2002. RTP,NC

  17. New England Air Quality Study (NEAQS): Operational MM5 Forecasts • MM5 results extracted at selected profiler sites were supplied to Jim Wilczak at NOAA/FSL for incorporation into experimental ensemble temperature forecast product(s). MCNC’s version of the MM5 was run at 3 resolutions, depicted above. The outer domain was typically run for 60-hours at 45km, twice daily. The large interior (15km) domain was run for 48(36) hrs at 12z(00z), and the highest resolution (5km) domains were run for either 14hrs (Birmingham/Houston) or 24hrs (New England) at 00z. The MCNC MM5 was initialized with the Eta-EDAS AWIP3D (40km) dataset and used a 6-hour dynamic initialization based on gridded Eta forecast data. The 12z run utilized 06z AVN (GFS) large-scale boundary conditions, whereas the 00z run used 00z Eta boundary conditions. No special meteorological data was incorporated. The MCNC MM5 was configured with the OSU-LSM using Eta-based soil-moisture/soil-temperature fields, with adjustments to account for differences in soil-texture maps between the Eta and MM5 versions of the LSM. The MRF PBL scheme was used, along with the KF deep convection scheme, the RRTM long-wave scheme, the Dudhia short-wave scheme, and the Reisner-1 microphysics scheme. Output was provided in real-time through an ftp-server to FSL in Boulder, CO. CMAS Workshop, US EPA, Oct 21-23, 2002. RTP,NC

  18. New England Air Quality Study (NEAQS): Operational MM5 and SMOKE Forecasts • In support of the ARL hybridized air quality forecasting system, MCNC supplied meteorological and emissions data to Ariel Stein at ARL. A baseline data-stream was developed in the May/June timeframe and operational datasets were made available beginning July 1. These continued through the end of the NEAQS. The meteorological data was derived from the operational MM5 forecasts produced at MCNC. The emissions data resulted from operational runs of the SMOKE emissions processing/modeling system, driven by outputs from the MM5 forecasts. (This allows meteorologically sensitive emissions rates to be affected by forecast meteorology.) Output was provided via an ftp-server to ARL in Silver Spring, MD. Because the same meteorological data was used to drive the MCNC MAQSIP-RT model in real-time, a direct comparison of the hybrid model results and the MAQSIP-RT model results is possible. CMAS Workshop, US EPA, Oct 21-23, 2002. RTP,NC

  19. New England Air Quality Study (NEAQS): Operational MAQSIP-RT Forecasts • A continuous archive of forecasts was produced beginning July 1 and extends through Sept 30, 2002. Forecasts were run twice daily, at 00z and 12z. MCNC provided “merged” datasets at all three scales to Stu McKeen at FSL for real-time plots against NEAQS field data being collected at surface locations and aboard the NOAA ship “Ron Brown.” • Further, forecast maps and animations were made available over the MCNC Web-site located at http://emc.mcnc.org/ SECMEP/projects, under the heading NOAA New England AIRMAP Field Study, for any NOAA investigator. These maps were used by Wayne Angevine (Aeronomy Lab), who directed a profiler site near Durham, NH, and provided forecasts to the Ron Brown. An example of this type of plot is shown in Figure 3, compared against “verification” as depicted by the gridded surface-monitor-based observations disseminated through EPA’s AIRNOW Web-site (http://www.epa.gov/airnow). • MCNC conducted the 00z 45km runs in parallel, using (or not) surface monitor-based data assimilation. In the data-assimilation algorithm currently available at MCNC, hourly data from more than 1000 surface ozone monitors east of the Rockies is retrieved shortly after 7PM EDT. These data are processed and error-checked before being supplied to a Lagrangian transport model. The Lagrangian model utilizes the 12z MM5 forecast meteorological winds and daytime mixing depths to advect the ratio of observed-to-forecast (from the 12z run) ozone values each hour from each monitor, starting at 10AM LDT. Each ratio-event results in a downstream trajectory envelope which is allowed to have a vertical extent consistent with the forecast mixed layer depth. At the end of the assimilation cycle, the mean ratio along each trajectory envelope, including all intersecting envelopes, is calculated, and then applied to the “first-guess” ozone field at 00z from the 12z forecast run. The resulting values at 00z are used to initialize the forecasts. CMAS Workshop, US EPA, Oct 21-23, 2002. RTP,NC

  20. New England Air Quality Study (NEAQS) Preliminary Results– MAQSIP-RT Forecasts Aug 5 • Aug 5: 1st day forecast vs. AIRNOW obs • 15km NE MAQSIP-RT CMAS Workshop, US EPA, Oct 21-23, 2002. RTP,NC

  21. New England Air Quality Study (NEAQS) Preliminary Results– MAQSIP-RT Forecasts Aug 10-18 • Aug 10: 1st day forecast (left) vs. AIRNOW obs (right) • 45km MAQSIP-RT CMAS Workshop, US EPA, Oct 21-23, 2002. RTP,NC

  22. New England Air Quality Study (NEAQS) Preliminary Results– MAQSIP-RT Forecasts Aug 10-18 • Aug 11: 2nd day forecast (left) versus 1st day forecast (right) vs. AIRNOW obs • 45km MAQSIP-RT CMAS Workshop, US EPA, Oct 21-23, 2002. RTP,NC

  23. New England Air Quality Study (NEAQS) Preliminary Results– MAQSIP-RT Forecasts Aug 10-18 • Aug 12: 2nd day forecast (left) versus 1st day forecast (right) vs. AIRNOW obs • 45km MAQSIP-RT CMAS Workshop, US EPA, Oct 21-23, 2002. RTP,NC

  24. New England Air Quality Study (NEAQS) Preliminary Results– MAQSIP-RT Forecasts Aug 10-18 • Aug 13: 2nd day forecast (left) versus 1st day forecast (right) vs. AIRNOW obs • 45km MAQSIP-RT CMAS Workshop, US EPA, Oct 21-23, 2002. RTP,NC

  25. New England Air Quality Study (NEAQS) Preliminary Results– MAQSIP-RT Forecasts Aug 10-18 • Aug 13: 1st day forecast (left) versus vs. AIRNOW obs • 15km NE MAQSIP-RT CMAS Workshop, US EPA, Oct 21-23, 2002. RTP,NC

  26. New England Air Quality Study (NEAQS) Preliminary Results– MAQSIP-RT Forecasts Aug 10-18 • Aug 14: 2nd day forecast (left) versus 1st day forecast (right) vs. AIRNOW obs • 45km MAQSIP-RT CMAS Workshop, US EPA, Oct 21-23, 2002. RTP,NC

  27. MAQSIP-RT Forecasts, 2002: New England Air Quality Study (NEAQS) Preliminary Results– Aug 10-18 • Aug 14: 1st day forecast (left) vs AIRNOW obs • 15km NE MAQSIP-RT CMAS Workshop, US EPA, Oct 21-23, 2002. RTP,NC

  28. New England Air Quality Study (NEAQS) Preliminary Results– MAQSIP-RT Forecasts Aug 10-18 • Aug 15: 2nd day forecast (left) versus 1st day forecast (right) vs. AIRNOW obs • 45km MAQSIP-RT CMAS Workshop, US EPA, Oct 21-23, 2002. RTP,NC

  29. New England Air Quality Study (NEAQS) Preliminary Results– MAQSIP-RT Forecasts Aug 10-18 • Aug 15: 1st day forecast (left) vs. AIRNOW obs • 15km NE MAQSIP-RT CMAS Workshop, US EPA, Oct 21-23, 2002. RTP,NC

  30. New England Air Quality Study (NEAQS) Preliminary Results– MAQSIP-RT Forecasts Aug 10-18 • Aug 16: 2nd day forecast (left) versus 1st day forecast (right) vs. AIRNOW obs • 45km MAQSIP-RT CMAS Workshop, US EPA, Oct 21-23, 2002. RTP,NC

  31. New England Air Quality Study (NEAQS) Preliminary Results– MAQSIP-RT Forecasts Aug 10-18 • Aug 16: 1st day forecast (left) vs. AIRNOW obs • 15km NE MAQSIP-RT CMAS Workshop, US EPA, Oct 21-23, 2002. RTP,NC

  32. New England Air Quality Study (NEAQS) Preliminary Results– MAQSIP-RT Forecasts Aug 10-18 • Aug 17: 2nd day forecast (left) versus 1st day forecast (right) vs. AIRNOW obs • 45km MAQSIP-RT CMAS Workshop, US EPA, Oct 21-23, 2002. RTP,NC

  33. New England Air Quality Study (NEAQS) Preliminary Results– MAQSIP-RT Forecasts Aug 10-18 • Aug 17: 1st day forecast vs. AIRNOW obs • 15km NE MAQSIP-RT CMAS Workshop, US EPA, Oct 21-23, 2002. RTP,NC

  34. New England Air Quality Study (NEAQS) Preliminary Results– MAQSIP-RT Forecasts Aug 10-18 • Aug 18: 2nd day forecast (left) versus 1st day forecast (right) vs. AIRNOW obs • 45km MAQSIP-RT CMAS Workshop, US EPA, Oct 21-23, 2002. RTP,NC

  35. New England Air Quality Study (NEAQS) Preliminary Results– MAQSIP-RT Forecasts Aug 10-18 • Aug 18: 1st day forecast (left) AIRNOW obs • 15km NE MAQSIP-RT CMAS Workshop, US EPA, Oct 21-23, 2002. RTP,NC

  36. New England Air Quality Study (NEAQS) Preliminary Results– MAQSIP-RT Forecasts Aug 10-18 • Aug 19: 1st day forecast (left) vs. AIRNOW obs • 45km MAQSIP-RT CMAS Workshop, US EPA, Oct 21-23, 2002. RTP,NC

  37. New England Air Quality Study Real-Time Forecast Time-Series: Example • Example FSL-generated plot of multiple MCNC MAQSIP-RT 15km forecasts versus measurement data collected at the Harvard Forest Surface Site on August 9-10, 2002 during the New England Air Quality Study. CMAS Workshop, US EPA, Oct 21-23, 2002. RTP,NC

  38. New England Air Quality Study (NEAQS) Preliminary Results– MAQSIP-RT Forecasts Aug 10-18 • MAQSIP-RT shows good skill for many days • Forecast patterns tend to improve with more recent forecasts • Forecast time-series at NEAQS ground sites are encouraging. • MM5 seems to overdo the sea-breeze on several occasions CMAS Workshop, US EPA, Oct 21-23, 2002. RTP,NC

  39. MAQSIP-RT Forecasts, 2002: Aug 2-10 SE US • 15km SE Day 2 Fcst vs Obs: Aug 2 CMAS Workshop, US EPA, Oct 21-23, 2002. RTP,NC

  40. MAQSIP-RT Forecasts, 2002: Aug 2-10 SE US • 15km SE Day 2 Fcst vs Obs: Aug 3 CMAS Workshop, US EPA, Oct 21-23, 2002. RTP,NC

  41. MAQSIP-RT Forecasts, 2002: Aug 2-10 SE US • 15km SE Day 2 Fcst vs Obs: Aug 4 CMAS Workshop, US EPA, Oct 21-23, 2002. RTP,NC

  42. MAQSIP-RT Forecasts, 2002: Aug 2-10 SE US • 15km SE Day 2 Fcst vs Obs: Aug 5 CMAS Workshop, US EPA, Oct 21-23, 2002. RTP,NC

  43. MAQSIP-RT Forecasts, 2002: Aug 2-10 SE US • 15km SE Day 2 Fcst vs Obs: Aug 6 CMAS Workshop, US EPA, Oct 21-23, 2002. RTP,NC

  44. MAQSIP-RT Forecasts, 2002: Aug 2-10 SE US • 15km SE Day 2 Fcst vs Obs: Aug 7 CMAS Workshop, US EPA, Oct 21-23, 2002. RTP,NC

  45. MAQSIP-RT Forecasts, 2002: Aug 2-10 SE US • 15km SE Day 2 Fcst vs Obs: Aug 8 CMAS Workshop, US EPA, Oct 21-23, 2002. RTP,NC

  46. MAQSIP-RT Forecasts, 2002: Aug 2-10 SE US • 15km SE Day 2 Fcst vs Obs: Aug 9 CMAS Workshop, US EPA, Oct 21-23, 2002. RTP,NC

  47. MAQSIP-RT Forecasts, 2002: Aug 2-10 SE US • 15km SE Day 2 Fcst vs Obs: Aug 10 CMAS Workshop, US EPA, Oct 21-23, 2002. RTP,NC

  48. RTOFS 2002 – Early September Case Study RTOFS Max 8-Hour Forecast (00Z Run) Max 8-Hour Observations RTOFS to Obs Comparison Max 8-Hour CMAS Workshop, US EPA, Oct 21-23, 2002. RTP,NC Slide #11

  49. MAQSIP-RT SE 15km Grid, 2002: Preliminary Conclusions • MAQSIP-RT shows good regional skill, but is biased somewhat high on some days near and downwind of both Atlanta and Birmingham; and biased somewhat low on some days in NC and TN. These “urban-corridor” biases tend to occur simultaneously, suggesting either meteorological or emissions inventory issues. • Urban and downwind urban corridor emissions inventories, especially Ga, Alabama, NC and TN may need improvement. • In general: • Subtle effects (presence/absence of shallow convection, weak synoptic transitions, persistent moisture pools at mid-layers) are significant if not dominant in the SE for any given summer • SE US forecasting may be more challenging due to largely mesoscale nature of the weather in summertime CMAS Workshop, US EPA, Oct 21-23, 2002. RTP,NC

  50. MAQSIP-RT Forecasts, 2002: Texas, (Arkansas, Oklahoma)—Parts of July and September • July 7-10 Dallas CMAS Workshop, US EPA, Oct 21-23, 2002. RTP,NC

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