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Wind Power Development in the Pacific Northwest: Opportunities and Challenges

This report discusses the growth of wind power in the Pacific Northwest region, highlighting the factors driving its development and the unique challenges it faces. It explores the concentration of wind capacity east of the Columbia River Gorge and the issues related to balancing wind generation with load and transmission constraints. The report also addresses the impact of California's Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) on the demand for wind power in the region and the uncertainties surrounding future RPS policies.

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Wind Power Development in the Pacific Northwest: Opportunities and Challenges

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  1. Pacific Northwest Power System and Wind Power Development Jeff King Northwest Power & Conservation Council June 2010

  2. The Western interconnected power system Pacific Northwest Region Strong transmission interconnections: British Columbia (2000 MW) Bay Area (4900 MW) LA Metro Area (3100 MW) 2

  3. Alberta ESO NaturEner Power Watch California ISO WECC Balancing Authorities & ISOs

  4. Northwest generating capacity (MW)* * Operating and under construction July 2010 ** 16% of regional peak hourly load

  5. Northwest* generating capacity additions * WA, OR, ID & MT (incl. MRO) 5

  6. Cumulative Northwest* wind plant additions * WA, OR, ID & MT (excl. MRO)

  7. What drives wind development? • Lowest-cost renewable available in bulk quantity • Renewable portfolio standards (WA, OR, MT, CA) • Flexible California RPS energy delivery requirements • Federal and state financial incentives (PTC, ITC, BETC) • (Generally) quick project development and construction • Rural economic benefits + green tinge = strong political support

  8. Demand for RPS qualifying resources 8 8 January 6, 2020 8 8

  9. PNW wind: Equity ownership or long-term contracts vs. TRECs (Jan 2011, aMW)

  10. Northwest wind power: Balancing Authorities

  11. BPA BA min load BPA BA peak load BPA Balancing Authority wind capacity

  12. Operating Under construction Planned Area of legend symbols represents 200 MW capacity Northwest windpower development

  13. Why is wind capacity concentrated east of the Columbia River Gorge? • Reasonable (though not world-class) wind quality • Former surplus of transmission capacity to PNW load centers • Head of interties to California • Compatible land use (dryland wheat and rangeland) • Favorable political climate (most counties)

  14. Gorge winds driven by Pacific storm fronts

  15. Northwest wind power issues • Wind capacity is geographically concentrated, leading to volatile behavior (large and rapid ramps) • Wind capacity is concentrated in the Bonneville Balancing Authority • Bonneville needs little wind for its native load; wind capacity will soon exceed Bonneville's minimum load • Northwest wind is primarily driven by Pacific storm fronts, uncorrelated with load • Storm front + high spring hydro + low load + spill constraints can lead to excess generation • Production incentives + REC revenues discourage curtailment • Demand for wind power increasingly driven by California RPS • California RPS policy requires energy delivery only within the calendar year, so does not encourage transmission investment • Future California RPS policy is uncertain

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